Former L/S at Credit Hedge Fund | Where's my arc, Paulie?
Joined October 2011
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There's a ~3pg. stretch in Predator's Ball with more value on building "culture" than there is in hundreds of lectures, books, and papers written on the subject.
In essence, it boils down to 1) Pay your people really well, 2) Give them autonomy, 3) Make them feel like owners
.@nosunkcost who was probably the best account who unfortunately isn't here anymore put it best a few years ago: "acrimony and humiliation await anyone who associates with or works with Trump."
Thought of it today when thinking about how Jensen cozied up with Trump.
It's hilarious to watch how timeline went from "this is a nothing burger / who cares" -> "we cannot possibly have him step down" -> "this is a deep state plot / move by the dems to remove him from power"
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Surely the leveraged crypto traders buying the dip are right.
“The average long entry is $169.55, versus a mark price of $160.66 (5.2% below that entry), with total unrealized losses across all NVDA longs at $14.6M.”
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What stage is it when everyone is begging the board to ignore like a billion red flag and keep Jensen in place
And/or have a shareholder vote after the investigation is complete.
Difficult to argue this is in the best interest of shareholders with the stock down 8% after hours on the WSJ report about the board preparing to oust him.
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Don’t fire cause the stock will go down 😭
Our message to Nvidia's board:
Do not fire Jensen Huang.
There is no clear replacement for Jensen Huang. We are confident that his departure would ultimately be a net negative for Nvidia, its shareholders, and the AI Revolution.
First, take a look at the data. History also suggests that removing a successful CEO will come with a significant cost.
A study of 187 forced CEO departures from S&P 1500 companies found that removing outperforming CEOs resulted in negative long-term stock returns. This case would be no different, in our view.
Jensen Huang is the definition of an outperforming CEO. Nvidia's board must not make a decision in the heat of the moment.
The board should take the time to conduct a thorough investigation and consult with shareholders, with a strong emphasis on the latter.
Quite literally, Nvidia's board should convene a special shareholder meeting and hold an advisory vote on this decision. This is the most consequential CEO controversy in world history. Shareholders deserve a say.
In addition, Nvidia's stock, $NVDA, is now down -35% in 26 trading days, nearly half of which is a result of the recent scandal.
We believe Jensen Huang's potential removal as CEO is now ~80% priced in.
Why take an action with massive downside potential when the market has already priced in much of that risk?
The downside of retaining Huang may be limited, while the potential upside is tremendous.
Lastly, history shows that retaining Jensen Huang could still lead to a favorable outcome. In 2019, Amazon retained Jeff Bezos as CEO after his extramarital affair became public, and the company's stock subsequently surged +108% by 2021.
Personal misconduct should not be ignored, but it must also be distinguished from corporate wrongdoing and weighed against the consequences of removing an executive who is instrumental to the company's success.
We believe Jensen Huang is an irreplaceable part of Nvidia and the AI Revolution more broadly.
Once the dust settles, firing Jensen Huang would prove to be a costly mistake.
It is time to pause and consult your shareholders.
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Every tech investor and VC on their knees begging the board to please please ignore like a million red flags.
What are they gonna do when the stock is down another 20%?
Everyone rushing to buy NVDA ahead of earnings call where they; i) have no CEO and ii) are gonna have to find a lot of money to fill in the China sales with prob more restrictions incoming from DC
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DeepDiveDenny retweeted
Everyone thinking this is the NVDA bottom and that this’ll all blow over in a few days.
Hint: a lot more stuff is going to come out and it probably will not paint NVDA or Jensen in a good light.
As if the Jensen overhang wasn't enough
From the Anthropic Road Show video:
'This has also made us really good at bringing up new chips. As an example, this year, we started working with AMD GPUs for the first time. In the past, bringing on a new chip platform took dozens of engineers months of work. This time we had Mythos try it out. It got Claude running on AMD in just 3 days with basically no human intervention. Claude ported or wrote almost 100% of the kernels.'
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Everyone thinking this is the NVDA bottom and that this’ll all blow over in a few days.
Hint: a lot more stuff is going to come out and it probably will not paint NVDA or Jensen in a good light.
Damage has been done -- the AI trade is cooked for a bit. Great Anthropic data point came out today and literally nobody cares. Everyone already died.
“Our Run-Rate Revenue was approximately $81 billion as of October 31, 2026, up $10 billion from September 30, 2026.”
$10 Billion of incremental revenue. In a single month. Which included a 40% price cut. Uncharted territory.
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