Entrepreneur, data scientist, investor, and family man. // Former data science at Khan Academy, co-founder at Teza Technologies, Citadel HFT.
Palo Alto, CA
Joined March 2012
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
old dogs new tricks olddogs.ai
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
LLM that’s trained solely on Modest Mouse, Death Cab for Cutie, and The National and becomes too withdrawn and awkward to take over the world
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
It's worth pointing out that practically speaking, the alternative to a sane regulatory regime isn't "no regulation." We are experiencing rapid improvements in capabilities, have multiple providers with differing levels of safe guards, and are at the point now where small things are starting to go wrong. The scope of AI capabilities are growing rapidly, and the scope of possible damage is going to grow with them.
Think for a second about what happens when the first actually bad and "politically gripping" incident occurs? Not Hugging Face, but something that makes the average person really scared. This isn't about extinction, think a human initiated, AI-orchestrated cyberattack that sabotages one piece of infrastructure that results in at least one person dying. The reaction will be violent.
Our political system doesn't work well at proactively handling purely theoretical problems, but reacts very fiercely and sometimes irrationally when something bad actually happens.
The August 2001 CIA memo "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US" got little response, but buildings falling down changed the course of history.
An industry whose wealth and power is widely resented, that resists even the most innocuous and common sense safeguards, and then causes a significant incident, will see a violent reaction. This will result in a regulatory regime designed in a moment of populist outrage by people with little understanding of what will help, whose primary goal will be crushing AI progress as an end in its own right.
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Todd Beamer was the passenger on United Airlines Flight 93 who rallied fellow passengers to fight back against the 9/11 hijackers with the phrase "Let's roll" and stopped it from reaching Washington, DC.
This is his daughter, Morgan, who was born 4 months after his death and went on to play women's soccer at his alma mater, Wheaton College.
Imagine how proud he would be. 🇺🇸 #neverforget
ALT #911remembrance #september11 #911 #america
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
This strategy won't pan out for hard tech. Investors need to care just as much as founders that more water actually falls out of clouds, electrons flow out of a power plant, lithium comes out of the brine, energy is stored in the battery, etc. The industrial tourists who would be just as fulfilled bidding up cartoon monkey JPEGs will not have the stomach for the ups and downs of building real-world companies, and founders building civilizationally important technology are going to get left stranded.
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Yes! But also we should do "five how's" in response to any talk of pacing and alignment.
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
The facts no longer broadly support anti-datacenter arguments.
Working class America was devastated by the outsourcing of manufacturing to China. You are now implicitly supporting the outsourcing of intelligence to China. This would be so much worse.
No impact on people with fancy degrees and lots of money, but would be terrible for ordinary Americans.
Working class Americans deserves a bipartisan consensus on this.
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
What I’ve been up to with @derandomized: olddogs.ai
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Cloudflare, Vercel, Uber, LaunchDarkly, and others are building software factories.
I looked at how they work, the results so far, and what's next: will agents be prompting us?
igoro.com/archive/software-f…
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Trading and investing reveal all of your qualities, good or bad.
Impatience, impulsiveness, fear, greed, ego, overconfidence, insecurity, indecision, stubbornness, discipline, humility, patience, self control, adaptability.
Markets have a way of exposing all of it.
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
The Tesla that Jessica just bought cost $48k and has a range of about 350 miles. The one she bought in 2015 cost $135k, adjusted for inflation, and had a range of 270 miles. People who think they dislike capitalism don't know how good they have it.
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Yes, this. Instead of pacing/pausing, we should figure out what gates ought to be cleared, and take as much time as we need to clear them—and no more.
By analogy, we don't “pace” drug development, we do RCTs. You market your drug when it passes clinical trials, no sooner/later.
Really good to see this. IMO this ⬇️ is by far the best way to think about "pacing the frontier"—not as some fixed amount of time (e.g. "six month pause" or "go 10% slower"), but simply making sure that enough time is taken to meet a reasonable safety/assurance bar.
If all parties do that—whether by choice or because they have to—then there you have it, the frontier has been paced.
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
The hawksbill sea turtle is a critically endangered sea turtle whose shells slightly changes colors, depending on water temperature.
📸 Orazio Fargione
Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Gavin Baker says the best thing that can happen to you as a young investor is a big drawdown early in your career, because it's coming either way and the earlier it happens, the better you'll navigate it the next time, and the consequences only go up the further along you get.
"I had to find out who I was when I blew up on pharma at the age of 25."
"When you go from having been such a star on tech and promoted early and you get all these accolades and you're like 23 or 24. And because you're young and silly, you start to believe some of them."
"Go immediately from kind of a big star in the department to literally the lowest of the low."
"Yeah, it's hard. Like when you're in a drawdown, every time, hindsight's always 20/20. So the mistakes seem so obvious."
"And that's why I just think if you were a young investor, the best thing that can happen to you is having an experience like that early."
"Because it's gonna happen."
"And the earlier it happens to you, the better you will navigate it the next time"
"And definitionally, almost every time you go through a tough period like that, the consequences for not navigating it well are higher. Because if you're succeeding in your career, you're getting more and more important jobs."
"So I just feel lucky. Pharma was a very important sector that I had that humbling experience so early.
