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There have been five major bull market cycles in $BTC since inception. In all previous cycles the violation of the dominant parabolic advance has been followed by a 75%-plus correction -- NO EXCEPTIONS!!
You better have a great reason to bet against this pattern.
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There’s so much pessimism and short-term thinking on cryptoassets these days that the R/R is tilting towards optimism and long-term, sized, high-conviction positions in distressed, public, cryptoassets.
That said, the time isn’t yet now, imo. I shared my view @ $109K that $BTC only starts to get interesting < $75K, and a revisit of the 200W SMA is always possible (~$56K currently, will trend higher), with all of those numbers still representing a mellow bear. Can we go lower? Sure. Pay your taxes and let’s see what 2026 brings.
Observing discourse & price-action around $MON, which is one of the highest quality teams to launch in the last few years (yes, I’m a venture investor in it), and sits at a tenth of the FDV of previous high-flyers in its category, while having superior tech & design choices across the board, shows how much repricing is happening. Starting low is a good thing, even if it goes to <= $0.01 next year I can see that washout being healthy. I’d happily accumulate. Every major cryptoasset has had washouts, that’s what creates opportunity and interest.
More broadly, the vicious repricing happening in crypto is cathartic. Everyone is taking their licks, and smart ones will learn and adapt. Most cryptoassets should go to zero — this is liquid venture, what did you expect?
But, there are going to be a handful that reprice far too low as the babies are thrown out with the bathwater, and having the conviction, at the right time, to be optimistic when the consensus is pessimistic will once again yield 10-100X’s.
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1/ On Losing Faith
Is it over?
Was it all a fever dream?
Have we run out of steam?
Is it time to pivot to AI for real this time?
2/ Everything is dead?
BTC: DAT premiums down, nobody cares
ETH: Stablecoin
Alts: Crushed
NFTs: Right click saved
Meme coins: As expected tbh
Zcash: Pumping! which ofc means "cycle is over"
3/ This is the worst cryptotwitter timeline I have ever seen relative to the environment.
Nobody is attacking us, USA is being reasonable and rational, no CEX has run away with our money, and yet, dead, dead, dead.
No narrative, no spark, nothing.
4/ Why?
I read the timeline and it tells me:
a/"nobody owns BTC" (odd, I mean someone has to own BTC, there is a ton of BTC)
and
b/ "the gamblers have liquidated themselves (again)" - true, but it was always like this
5/ This TL feels different. This does not feel like
"fuck I got liquidated", it feels like malaise, tiredness.
Like boredom, to be honest.
I know you think it is the price action but the price action is obviously downstream from psychology.
6/ I have a different view of what is going on.
I think almost everyone forgot what matters, chased after things that did not matter and, we are in the process of discovering they don't matter.
7/ What matters? Only decentralization, only permissionlessness. Nothing else matters at all.
Everything else about crypto is WORSE than a centralized database and always will be because that is how computers work.
8/ In my view, basically everyone "major" except vitalik has strayed from the light on this.
Let's start with Team BTC which USED to be very interested in how to build a network that become nation-state resistant.
This was the BTC of Antonopoulos, of Lopp
9/ We are 5 years into the BTC of Saylor and that BTC is 100% about driving price action.
It is about driving flows to BTC, about getting fully integrated with the USA financial system.
10/ It sounds nice, it sounds better than the system beating us with a big stick, but the net effect is that more and more BTC ends up in Coinbase Custody in New York State
Nothing wrong with that, but none of that BTC is nation-state resistant.
It is 100% non-resistant to the US government specifically.
11/ The problem with this is that with permissionlessness off the table, the only thing left to drive purchases of BTC is FOMO.
"there are only 21M, they are going to run out, you need to buy some before others do and it goes exponential"
12/ I mean, maybe that is true.
I am not making price predictions, I still own BTC and always will I think.
But it is cringe, and it is wrong.
13/ You can think about this by taking it to the extreme case and trying to understand which of the two scenarios adds value to the world.
14/
Scenario A: Blackrock owns all 21M BTC, everyone on planet earth owns shares in the Blackrock ETF and Brian Armstrong is in charge of making sure we don't lose Our Precious
Scenario B: Everyone on earth has their own BTC wallet and BTC is distributed in several billion places around the world and it is literally impossible for any government to stop BTC
15/ In Scenario A, BTC is a complete and utter failure. It is just a pet rock. Yes it is "rare" but it is also "100% seize-able by the USA government"
At which point, it might as well be an IOU from the USA government that it pinky-swears is rare
16/ "but it is not like this because other nation-states are accumulating and game theory blah blah blah"
No my brothers and sisters.
The exact scenario where your BTC get seized is a) centralized and b) hyperbitcoinization
Maybe the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is happening and it is your ETF and $STRATEGY (TM) capital stack all along (thank you for your contribution to our national security)
17/ To be clear, nobody is seizing your BTC (let alone your ETH) now because it is not important enough yet.
But, if it was, I dunno, I would not trust those centralized vehicles.
CEO, Board, shareholders, SEC, US government, state government, custody firm, their regulators all have an angle of attack on a DAT.
18/ If USA seizes BTC, other countries won't save you:
EU: "Thank god our dreams have come true, we can ban it also"
UAE: "grumble grumble, but fine we will go along"
China: "ban. unban. ban. unban. anyway so long as currency is not free-floating, BTC won't be free here"
Russia: "someone falls out of a window"
19/ Of course, BTC in ETFs is by no means the worst of it. The "crypto's main use is a casino" crowd is the worst.
This is not a zero-sum game, it is a negative sum game because it is rigged.
20/ "what about the JPGs huh?" -> I still love them.
The best ones are the best tokens in the world by far, rare, suffused with meaning, with no external dependencies and great to hold on-chain.
And beyond the art JPGs, I think that NFTs can do many more things, but this is on me to "show, not tell"
21/ I want to circle back to BTC because it is the easiest to reason about.
When people explained to me time and time again that it was a ponzi, I had a simple explanation of why it is not.
21/ BTC lets you do some things better than the existing system. "be sovereign over your money" or "send money to anyone on the planet within minutes" or "maintain an insurance policy against the existing financial system"
22/ I could not tell you how much value this had, but I knew it was not zero.
In fact, the value went up the more people used it, the bigger the network was, the more people you could transact with, the more resilient it was to government censorship.
These are the economics of a network system, not of a ponzi.
23/ If you take this away, if you stop building a network but instead just, at the extreme, just sell everyone shares of the ETF, well there is no network, there is no incremental network value being generated by the next buyer.
24/ In this model, BTC becomes more ponzi-like.
If a new participant does not make the network stronger by joining, they are not adding value, therefore there is a fixed pie and it is just value transfer to an existing holder.
25/ Again, take it to the extreme other direction -> assume we managed to move the whole economy to decentralized rails.
I think that world would be better, it would make better decisions, it would take advantage of the wisdom of crowds, there would be more transparency, less rent-seeking and the aggregate value of the world goes up because it is more productive.
Some % of the improved value of the world will get captured by the early participants to the network (which is normal and fair) but some % will be captured by everyone (as a late participant or consumer).
26/ But if we don't make the world better, if the world is exactly what it is, but also we play with a pet rock, this will not happen and, well, eventually playing with pet rocks gets very boring
27/ So what to do?
The same things you always should do:
a/ push yourself, and by extension, the world an inch, a foot, a mile down the pathway of decentralization.
many ways to do this, it is a journey, start today.
b/ remember, you, yes, you in the mirror have no business trading perps or day-trading stupid coins.
you are bad at it and your future self will be mad at your current self.
28/ If you must do it, carve out a budget and test how great you are across the cycle with your budget (1%, 5%, 10%, 20% of your portfolio, not all of it)
I am of course a dinosaur, but my total portfolio % of "putting money into stupid coins I have been FOMOed into it" is less than 1%. It has gone about as well as you might expect.
29/ Other than that, own some BTC, some ETH, some NFTs (good ones, that you like) in a self-custodial wallet, a small number of your favorite alts if you must.
And keep your job. Earn money, don't try to be a pro crypto trader, this is an imaginary job that only cobie and like 5 other people are qualified for.
I have always worked, every single day of my adult life. You should too.
30/ Crypto is a bad way to get rich quick, but a decent way to get rich slowly. In any case, you should have some stake in the decentralized world, in the digital world.
31/ I think in the end, "it" will be OK but "it" it not everything, it is not most things. As it always was, most coins will go to zero, most NFTs will go to zero. These are the rules of the game.
32/ Most of you are young. You have time, you have time into the ASI world, you have the greatest gift and wealth of all. You will be ok.
33/ Don't mope. It does not help anything. If you are bummed out, sad about your outcomes, there is only one sure thing that helps.
Get back to working.
34/ Even if you are young, life is short, your life is the important thing, money is just a game, just a tool, just an information system.
Don't anchor to your wealth, don't anchor to your ATH, it is not real, my ATH wealth has gone down 90% multiple times. Note it and just keep going.
If you are healthy, in a decent country, in a half-decent economic situation, you are better off than almost anyone who has ever lived
35/ If you have an opinion (even a dumb one) about Monad or Grifters, you are in the 0.001% most forward thinking people in the world.
Did you make a "mistake"?
Who cares, everyone makes mistakes - keep going, keep trying, keep making mistakes, eventually you will find your way, you will get a win.
This is how it goes.
36/ use a hardware wallet and even better a SAFE
37/ and to close again with the most important thing. decentralization is the only thing that matters.
if you go in that direction, if we go in that direction, in the end, it will be ok.
i have no doubt about this, i have never had any doubts about this, it matters so much more than you think it does.
/the end
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Reading the replies to my post only makes me more certain: we’re deep in the Complacency phase of the cycle. And yes - we can go much lower.
I still haven’t seen a credible argument for why crypto networks - Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, etc. - deserve their current valuations.
These networks have utility. But utility ≠ value capture.
“Institutional adoption” isn’t a valuation model. It definitely doesn’t justify tokens trading at 50x+ P/S.
Meanwhile, the strongest AI + infra companies - actual revenue, actual unit economics - trade at 8–12x EV/revenue… and their revenue doesn’t evaporate in down cycles.
Crypto is still priced like a religion, not a business. Complacency.
Crypto got everything it wanted - ETFs, adoption, legitimacy - and prices are still down.
We valued casino flow like recurring software revenue.
“Dear LPs, we outperformed ETH… and still lost 80% of the fund.”
Full post:
open.substack.com/pub/obviou…
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At the end of the day, if #BTC reclaims key levels that have sustained bullish market structure then it would be wise to be bullish
But if Bitcoin keeps losing levels that have sustained bullish momentum (and especially if those levels are turning into resistance) it’s entirely reasonable to entertain the possibility that the market may be transitioning
It’s easy to be bullish in a Bull Market
It’s easy to be bearish in a Bear Market
But it’s imperative to exercise critical thinking and be as objective as possible during potential transitional phases in macro market cycles
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
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on my first day on the desk a senior trader and now friend of mine told me "u have to figure out what type of a trader u are, everyone is different".
i still remember it quite clearly and think it is a statement that applies rather generally, and that people forget about on CT
for example, many people have a successful strategy of longing breakouts or shorting breakdowns
many people make money just by accumulating and holding over a long period of time
people make money by identifying new narratives and being early, although taking a lot of risk
the answer is there are multiple ways to make money, each with varying degrees of success and each that require a different skillset
and the thing u gotta do is figure out what your "style" is and also what your time horizon is
the thing about CT is you read A LOT, and the general "morale" can often have a big impact on your trading decisions. but you also need to make sure you're comparing apples to apples.
for example, if the only people you follow are short-term/chart traders, but you actually have a long time horizon, your trading decisions will be impacted with that they are saying atm (bearish) and you may end up selling only to regret it later and buy back higher.
conversely, u may have a specific need to pull ur capital out in the short-term (like a tax liability), but because u only follow long-term permabulls, u never sell/take profits and ride your bags down and then end up selling at the lows because you have no other choice.
if u are someone who bases your trading decisions off what you read on CT (and even if you don't, what we read on here impacts every single one of us whether we like it or not), you need to be extremely careful about interpreting that information first before you let it affect your mentality.
it's hard to do coz most of the time we just sitting around browsing CT and taking info at face value as it comes, but the worst thing u can do is take advice from someone who is trading short-term based on charts and let it fk up your multiple years of building because your mindset is more long term.
if u have followed me for a while u will know that i don't really look at charts and i'm never really short-term minded unless there's a specific fundamental catalyst i see coming up within a timeframe and i try to incorporate that into my thinking.
as mentioned yday, i'm still bullish, but i am also a very patient person; the way i see it is i'd rather make 10X over a longer period of time, even if i have to take massive unrealised drawdowns, than make X today and another 2-3X because i waited for a confirmation before buying back in.
not saying this is the correct way, but this is my style and it has been successful for me personally.
touché retweeted
Financial markets just got the green light to go MUCH higher.
The Fed is cutting interest rates and China is striking a deal.
Investors will use the clarity to pour capital into the market.
Damn I needed this report! Hope Julien is right ...
We heard you. We’ve responded. A brand-new weekly MIT report drops later this afternoon on @RealVision. It’s a good one. I lay out our full outlook for Q4. Hope it’s helpful...
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There are three economies running at different speeds and if you're in the wrong one you're already dead.
24/7 economy:
Crypto, AI, global markets. Never sleeps. Measures in blocks and epochs.
9-5 economy:
Jobs, mortgages, paychecks. Measures in months and quarters.
Generational economy:
Real estate, education, pensions. Measures in decades.
The arbitrage is being in multiple speeds simultaneously.
Earn in the 24/7.
Live in the 9-5.
Store wealth in the generational.
But most people are trapped in one speed.
My Universal Music colleagues lived in quarterly earnings but Spotify was thinking in decades.
We were playing different games at different speeds.
Speed differential is why disruption works.
The poor are trapped in daily speed.
Paycheck to paycheck is velocity prison.
The rich live in decade speed.
Their money makes money while they sleep.
The middle class is stuck in monthly speed. Fast enough to stress. Slow enough to fall behind.
Bitcoin is the first asset that exists in all three speeds simultaneously.
Blocks every ten minutes.
Cycles every four years.
HODL forever.
You can play any game.
But the speeds are diverging.
The fast is getting faster.
The slow is getting slower.
The gap between them is where all the opportunity and inequality lives.
Your job is figuring out which speed you're in and how to escape to a better one.
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Introducing JupUSD: the native stablecoin of the @JupiterExchange ecosystem built on Ethena's Stablecoin-as-a-Service stack.
JupUSD will plug into every major part of the Jupiter stack, including:
- Jupiter Perps: where the ~$750m in stablecoins inside of JLP will gradually be replaced by JupUSD
- Jupiter Lend as the cornerstone lending asset
Excited to be partnering with one of the best teams on Solana.
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I believe that Q4 will be great for crypto.
But make sure you take profits this time and change your life. Until you click sell, you haven't really made any money.
Most people will be left only with PNL screenshots at the end of the cycle.
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says he is considering $1,000 - $2,000 stimulus checks for all taxpayers using tariff revenue.
touché retweeted
SUI Group Partners with Ethena and the Sui Foundation to Launch suiUSDe and USDi, the First Native Sui Stablecoins
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
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What's next for crypto? @toly live at the All-In Summit on quantum, AI, and the future of money
(0:55) Stablecoin supercycle? Why the internet may become the largest holder of U.S. treasuries
(3:09) Solana executes, and execution is where the money’s made
(5:56) Regulated exchanges like NASDAQ vs. Solana
(10:02) Emerging crypto verticals: social, IP, and real-world assets
(13:41) Founding a crypto company in America and the CLARITY Act
(15:57) Quantum computing and AI's impact on crypto
(18:49) Bitcoin’s growth, resiliency, and potential risks
(22:45) Ethereum, Visa, Mastercard vs. Solana
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1/ Based x @ethena
We’re happy to announce a strategic investment from Ethena.
This marks the first step in our partnership to accelerate USDe adoption across the Hyperliquid ecosystem.
We think USDe can play a key role in the Hyperliquid ecosystem, and want to be a conduit through which that can happen.
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Excited to see a successful follow on raise for StablecoinX of ~$530m which represents roughly 14% of the circulating market cap of $ENA.
To put this into perspective, this raise is the equivalent of:
i) Saylor raising ~$300b to buy BTC
ii) Tom Lee raising ~$75b to buy ETH
iii)~2x the circulating supply purchased with cash in the last raise
The Ethena Foundation retains a veto right on any ENA sales by StablecoinX.
