inadvertently front running Leopold’s margin call, looking for opportunities across all markets
Joined May 2024
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It's very likely that citadel buying SA ended the cross market memory correlation trade.
I first detected Korean/Japanese being a leading indicator for next day SNDK price action in June after the correlation was negative all year.
The effect exacerbated in July. The signal throughout July had a 70% accuracy.
The root cause of this is now clear. Leopold got way too levered starting in June.
After hours had low liquidity so he couldn't dump and so there was a pricing edge in $SNDK equity movement.
Biggest lesson for me though is when you have found such an interesting regime shift to be aggressive and size up on it earlier.
But also as someone with no quant background and only codex I was able to find this signal and this makes me unbelievably bullish on AI x Trading and Hyperliquid.
The market is only going to become more inefficient from here as we get massive leverage, AI psychosis and transformative tech arriving.
Stay curious
I want to long $CBRS here but then I see the bulls coping by posting about security tailwinds with the following logic.
Can’t wait for the eventual ft expose on how market makers actually push price of stocks with big levered etfs and is cause of a lot of the volatility seen this year
still feels like $TSLA has a 10-15% min downside from here with the democratic sweep, even with SPCX merger narrative support
public tech investors sweating over every incremental bps of decel in earnings nuking their holdings double digits meanwhile private investors overpay for ADT by 50% on "sensor data" and "robotics"
.@willmanidis explains Thrive's ADT acquisition:
"ADT probably has the greatest sensor network on Earth. More cameras, more infrastructure on the edge being able to capture more novel data than almost anyone else has."
"Even if they're not able to get any lift out of the core business, that has to be the most valuable data set in the world."
It’s 2029, AOC has been president for a year. Kalshi and Polymarket has been banned after a fierce battle by the Mormon-Warren alliance. Shayne Coplan and tarek mansour are fighting extraditions charges in Latin America
$RDDT: will less Google referral and login wall dent long term user growth?
I think direct traffic was always the long term goal you can’t rely on google forever, most monetization happens already from signed in users, but this transition will take longer than expected and they will forecast slower user growth for next couple quarters ( unless they dramatically ramp app install campaigns).
Probably a bid in the 60-70s imo still a good asset long term
One of the most valuable moats left is if your product experience can’t be summarized or replaced by agents.
Stuff like live stream shopping where users willing spend hours a day on and combines entertainment with commerce, is the future.
Reddit call was absolutely fascinating. Everyone should listen to it as a bellwether for where the internet is going
- AI Mode is increasingly default Google experience
- AI Mode provides rich info and data in line, less incentive to leave search
- AI Mose incentivizes dialog, Google wants to keep you engaged to serve more ads at each turn
- Google will milk search for as much revenue as possible as they transition from a search company to a cloud service and chip company
- As traffic from humans becomes more scarce this will put Google in an increasingly adversarial position to the rest of the internet
- This is a massive headwind to all media type companies who are not destinations
- This is a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB. You have seen companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse
We are entering the end game - a knife fight for the remaining and dwindling volume of human traffic on the internet
If you take this essay to its conclusion then advancing AI will cause the collapse of democracy in nuclear armed developing countries
The benefits of abundant intelligence will accrue far outside of San Fransisco.
Spent the last year writing about capital, sovereignty, and the coming reordering of economic power.
THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS
Commanding-Heights.com
In Capital Returns the author used Japan as a cautionary tale of ZIRP and how continued low interest rates is a negative signal for equity holders.
The book was published in 2015, when a lot of people were warning against the dangers of ZIRP (remember Einhorn's Jelly Donut).
Yet, looking back, America's decade of cheap capital arguably helped lay the foundations for its dominance in cloud computing, software, and ultimately AI.
The capital cycle framework might correctly predict poor returns for the marginal investor while completely missing the extraordinary returns accruing to the eventual winners, and the strategic advantages accruing to the country
Snowflake hiring sridhar after the failure that was neeva will go down as well as yahoo hiring mayer
This boils down to asset inflation vastly outstripping wage growth, even for the top 1% earners.
major expenses like housing and education has been increasing at 3x+ the official inflation statistics.
A FB new grad making 200k in 2019 has more purchasing power than a 400k senior engineer today
I'm in my 40s. The most scared/disoriented people in my network are the ones that have the following resume => went to an Ivy League school, went into consulting for Bain or BCG or investment banking for a bulge bracket bank then MBA at Harvard/Stanford and then career progression in high income tech W2 or hedge funds/private equity.
A number of these individuals in the last 5 years have been unexpectedly let go in their early 40s with 2-3 kids in private school and a burn rate they socially struggle to walk away from (kids have close friends now, business connections at the private school their kids go to, living in a high cost location makes it easier to network, etc).
These are the people literally have only been told they are excellent their entire lives and now are in year 3-4 (no exaggeration) of trying to land a new job. Some are willing to "settle" for working for mid 6 figures (some even less) just to cover their burn rate with a young family.
AI probably makes this dynamic happen earlier in one's career going forward for some of these perfect resumes individuals. Good chart from @Jack_Raines in his book Young Money
The one man bio startup that anthropic acquired used to be a director at $PRME
Leetcode as a signal is pretty useless now. At my place we actually ask engineers product sense interview and prob deeply into experimentation design.
1. This filters for people who do research on the product and has an interest in what we do.
2. you can test communication skill and debate abilities which is pretty important
This + system design and some basic coding exercise is the best way to hire engineers imo
The coding interview is dead, at least for my team at Anthropic. I've seen enough to know that it no longer provides signal. I removed it from loops this month.
I have a spicy, optimistic take - I think there's an opportunity for junior engineers: felixrieseberg.com/hunger-be…
