Drew Fallon

Introducing Fin: The world’s first AI Chief Financial Officer. Fin outperforms humans 100% of the time. RT + Comment “FIN” and I’ll send you an AI agent that saves 6-7 figures/year.

people who qualify themselves by how much of other people’s money they spent on ads is the dumbest shit literally ever “i’ve spent 500m on met-“

signed the contract this morning

recession indicator fml

OZLO SLEEP RAISES $22M SERIES B FROM MODI VENTURES Ozlo - a boston based producer of ear buds designed to help you sleep - has closed a $22m series B round led by Modi Ventures. Ozlo was founded by 3 former Bose Corporation employees and has passed 260k customers; at their price point thats somewhere between 65-90m in total sales.

this headline was undoubtedly censored on linkedin by BigQuinoaCookie

MONDELEZ ACQUIRES MAJORITY STAKE IN UNDERCOVER SNACKS THAT LITTLE QUINOIA COOKIE THEY ALWAYS TRY TO GET YOU TO EAT ON THE PLANE Mondelēz International (MLDZ) has stepped back on offense in their first acquisition since 2022 - acquiring a majority interest in Undercover Snacks, the new jersey based producer of those highly polarizing little chocolate airplane crisp snacks. Honestly i'd love to know how much revenue they generate via United Airlines. Undercover snacks was generating ~$20m/qtr as of 3Q25, and mondelez described it as a 'small business growing very fast' - so I'd estimate annual sales in the $100m range. Mondelez has made many acquisitions in the past, and has announced every deal value over ~$1b; it also acquired Hu and Perfect for $300m. Given mondelez's conservatism in M&A lately after a Clif bar deal that didn't exactly play out as planned - I'm suspecting this deal would be at or below their median multiple paid and on the lower end of EV (mdlz said its not expected to make a material contribution in an $11b north american sales business) Estimating $100m sales & ~$350m in TEV

happy to announce i’ve acquired HQ!

we are so early

Only two types of people when it comes to ai a) If i want to keep my job i can’t let this is in the organization b) If i want to keep my job i really need to figure out how to use this

The $1b acquisition of Grüns by Unilever earlier this year has had a variety of ripple effects throughout the industry, some good - some bad; summarized below Good: - Unit economics. Chad Janis has officially popularized the focus LTV:CAC, and the industry needed someone who orchestrated an exceptional outcome to be the voice of authority in making us all focus keenly on unit economics. - BizOps function. Gruns did an exceptional job on building out a business operations team. I have gotten countless inquiries as to how they did this, and while I dont really know, its a super sharp model most brands should follow and will be better businesses for it. - People & culture focus. Slowly but surely, we are all realizing the importance of building a killer team. I did a podcast with a PE executive search professional Jeremy Cohen who said it nicely: 'every thing a founder has done to get to this point has gotten a positive feedback loop from constraining costs, applying that notion to talent is what can turn a potentially good outcome into a bad one' There is still a big hurdle for founder led businesses to get over in attracting top talent and being willing to pay for it. I think gruns also proved this point. Bad: - everyone now wants to be a gruns. I wish it were possible to aptly describe how unrealistic being a gruns is. many will die trying - LTV:CAC. while the popularization of this metric is generally a positive; more tactically gruns has popularized a '36 month' LTV duration. Very, very rarely do I see brands who have strong enough retention to underwrite 36mo LTVs; gruns was, again, special in this regard. Most brands are more like 12 or 24mo at best. - valuation expectations. Founders tend to see the last deal and think 'thats the multiple i should get' when really the multiple they should get is probably 9x ebitda. Exceptional cases here can conflate expectations and its important for founders to stay grounded. Overall -- as I was writing this there is way more good than bad and this deal has been very much on the net positive to the industry by a wide margin; but i am seeing more and more brands take it at face value vs trying to dig deeper and seeing what they can really learn and how it applies to their business

2026 will go down as the golden age of VMS M&A. Disclosed supplement deals have hit $9.2B, up from $187M in 2025 and past the 2021 peak of $6.4B. And the year isn't done: Rho Nutrition just hired Rothschild to explore a sale at $500M+, about 2.5x its ~$200M in revenue. Five deals make up almost all of it: P&G/Thorne $3.8B, Kirin/Jamieson $1.8B, Unilever/Grüns ~$1.2B, Bain Cap/Vitabiotics ~$1.2B and Yellow Wood/Nestlé ~$1.0B. While in 2021 it was mostly one deal 👉 Nestlé buying Bountiful for $5.75B. The gap is in the multiples. Premium and practitioner brands are getting 4-6x sales. Mass-market brands are getting less than 1x.

RHO NUTRITION EYES $500M+ SALE AT 2.5X SALES Rho Nutrition is exploring a sale that could value the liposomal supplements brand at over $500M. Rothschild & Co is running the process. Rho expects ~$200M in revenue this year. That puts the price at roughly 2.5x sales, right at the median of recent VMS exits. Supplement-manufacturing veterans Ryan Bishop and George Padilla founded the Miami brand in 2022 and hit $200M in four years with no disclosed institutional round. Comps: - P&G acquired Thorne for $3.8B at 5.8x sales - Unilever acquired Grüns for ~$1.1B at ~3.7x sales - Bain Capital acquired Vitabiotics for ~$875M at ~2.4x sales - USANA acquired Hiya for $262M at 2.5x sales

INTAKE BREATHING RAISES $62M FROM KIND FOUNDER'S CAMINO PARTNERS Nasal strip maker Intake Breathing closed its first institutional round taking $62M. Investment comes from Camino Partners, the firm Daniel Lubetzky started after building KIND. Intake Breathing launched on Kickstarter in 2019 and has stayed mostly bootstrapped. Revenue is approaching $100m in 2026, following triple-digit growth over 3 years and 100M+ pairs of tabs sold. Earlier this year, Prestige Consumer Healthcare bought Breathe Right for $1.045B with $200m in sales at 5x revenue - suggesting Intake could reach a valuation of ~$500m.

LIQUID I.V. TAPS FORMER POPPI CMO JENNY DANZI Liquid I.V. has named Jenny Danzi CMO. She replaces Stacey Andrade-Wells, who left in july after 4.5 years to join Bobbie. Danzi spent 17+ years at PepsiCo leading brand marketing for Pepsi, then ran the integration of poppi and became its CMO. Unilever bought Liquid I.V. in 2020. It has quadrupled in size since and crossed $1B in retail sales. Danzi now has to defend that lead in powdered hydration, a category that grew 20% to $1.5B in 2024 (Circana).

in 2027 we are UPPING the content game big time. I'm looking for my partner in building the platform that owns financial media in CPG Know anyone?

LABUBU MAKER POP MART UNDER REVENUE COLLAPSE Remember Labubus? Me either Pop Mart just said Q3 revenue fell 45–50% YoY, a year after it grew ~250%. Here's a short life story of the doll that drove the world nuts: The craze - Apr '24: Lisa of Blackpink posts her Labubu. Every drop starts selling out in minutes - Feb '25: Rihanna clips one to her Louis Vuitton bag, then Kim Kardashian shows off her collection - Apr '25: Labubu 3.0 launches, and resellers flip blind boxes at up to 10x retail - Jun '25: a one-of-one Labubu sells at auction for ~$150K - Aug '25: H1 revenue jumps 204% and profit almost 5x. The stock peaks at $43, up 11x in 16 months The hangover - Oct '25: Labubu resale prices fall to around retail after Pop Mart makes 10x more plush toys.  - Shares have their worst day since April - Mar '26: 2025 revenue reaches $5.4B (+185%), but Q4 slows. The stock falls 22% in a day - Oct '26: Q3 revenue drops 45–50%. Americas are down 70–75% and China 25–30%. Shares hit an 18-month low of $16.76, 61% below the peak

when u realize rabah knows……