Member of @Tochnyi also on the 💙sky ➡️🌤️ @edrotning.tochnyi.info
Oslo, Norway
Joined February 2012
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I wrote some stuff about defence innovation in Ukraine, after years as an observer both from afar and close to the soldiers on the ground in Ukraine.
RT and shares are highly appreciated 💛💙
Our latest piece at Tochnyi, by @eDrotning, looks at the gap between Ukraine’s battlefield innovation ecosystem and Western defence industry habits.
This @7corpsDSHV interview captures 'the problem and the road to succeeding' in Ukraine remarkably well.
1/6
Erlend retweeted
The railway station in Dnipro was recently attacked by a russian jet-powered drone. So far, 13 civilians have been killed, and the death toll may rise. The attack struck an ordinary passenger platform and a train on the Dnipro–Zaporizhzhia route…
Erlend retweeted
A few weeks ago, the Spectre 33 Special Unit which belongs to Ukraine's HUR MO has published the so far best images of a Naval SOF unit I've seen so far. The soldiers are armed with HK416 assault rifles, of which Germany has officially delivered 4,750 as of April 2025.
However, my research — I published a detailed article in August — shows that Germany must have delivered several thousand additional HK416s to Ukraine since the German government stopped disclosing its military assistance.
Erlend retweeted
A man screams by the corpse of his teenage daughter. Putin’s humanitarian efforts in Chernihiv today.
Erlend retweeted
The Kyiv Independent situation says a lot about Caolan’s attitude towards journalism and his colleagues.
He accused an entire newsroom of attacking press freedom and jeopardising his livelihood, yet Olga Rudenko has now explained that their animated map was used without permission and their logo was cropped out. Instead of acknowledging the issue, he chose to publicly attack the journalists whose work he used.
This isn’t the first time questions have been raised about his sourcing and attribution. His Aughinish Alumina documentary also prompted criticism from journalists who had already reported on the story and the developments he later presented as the impact of his investigation.
I’ve also heard from several sources about Caolan allegedly disparaging fellow journalists producing English-language content at industry events and embassies. I cannot independently verify those accounts, but they raise further questions about how he treats colleagues.
You cannot demand journalistic solidarity while disregarding the work of other journalists. You cannot expect everyone to defend you when you refuse to give others the same respect.
Journalism requires accountability, proper attribution and respect for other people’s work. These standards apply to everyone, regardless of audience size.
Credit matters. And solidarity has to go both ways.
unavailable
Erlend retweeted
This unpleasant incident prompts me to recall an earlier episode when @CaolanReports took credit for other journalists' work.
This July, he published a documentary about the Irish Aughinish Alumina plant, which supplies the Russian war machine.
He claims in his promotional language that his video had a huge impact:
"Within days, the investigation moved from social media into local, national and international coverage. Ministers were questioned. European officials became involved. A refinery that very few people had heard of suddenly became the centre of a major argument about Ireland, Russia, sanctions and the war in Ukraine."
However, all of this had happened before he published his investigation.
- The Irish PM had been questioned in March — four months earlier.
- Same with Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot calling for EU action.
- European Parliament VP Pina Picierno submitted a formal question to the Commission in May.
How is this possible? Because the original investigation on this plant, exposing its deliveries to Russia, had been published my colleagues at @OCCRP, the @IrishTimes, and @guardian on March 24. Caolan's video piggybacks on that reporting, with hardly any credit (he says he "saw a report in the Irish Times").
We're always happy when people popularize our reporting and take it forward. I haven't watched his documentary, but it's 40 minutes long and I'm sure it has a lot of valuable original reporting. Caolan is prolific and clearly good at what he does — that's why he has a huge audience. It's good he's helping tell Ukraine's story to the world.
But to behave like this, all while self-righteously accusing other journalists of breaching journalistic ethics, is galling.
This is not the first time that @CaolanReports disrespects the work of Ukrainian journalists by using their content without permission. And then tries to make them feel guilty for demanding to respect their work and copyright.
Erlend retweeted
Bro, you talked to my friend about his personal research that took him THOUSANDS of hours to do, you published the results as your own, and then when he talked to you again you pretended you had never heard of him or spoken to him before. Don’t start this shit. We have receipts if this is the path you want to take. Grow up and drop this shit or we can start something you will not be able to win.
Erlend retweeted
westerner in Ukraine steals Ukrainian work and is now upset
it might have been a five second video, but these maps take dozens of hours to make and the @KyivIndependent pays it's people rather well
his childish entitled response says everything yo need to know
Olga, I think your response says quite a lot about how The Kyiv Independent treats other journalists.
My Ukrainian editor used five seconds of your animated map and cropped out your logo. I didn’t know, and I didn’t catch it. That was wrong. He’s apologised, and I take responsibility.
But why on earth didn’t you just email me?
One message and I would have removed or replaced it immediately.
Instead, your team had an entire documentary with 1.3 million views taken down and put a copyright strike against my channel.
And now you’re lecturing me about journalistic solidarity?
Nobody disputes that your team deserves credit. But there’s a difference between protecting your work and choosing the most damaging option available without even attempting a conversation.
Your suggestion that I can simply re-upload the video is particularly insulting. You don’t magically recover 1.3 million views, the audience, the momentum or the damage to a channel by uploading another file. As the editor of a digital publication, you know that.
And this isn’t the first time I’ve heard troubling accounts of your organisation’s approach to copyright, including disputes with other journalists over terminology used by Ukrainians themselves to describe Russian attacks on civilians.
I’m not naming those journalists, but I think the pattern deserves scrutiny.
You claim to champion independent journalism, yet when another journalist makes a correctable mistake, your first response is to have their work removed.
What kind of journalistic culture is that?
I emailed your organisation seeking a resolution. I received no response, but you’ve found the time to publicly accuse me of lacking respect for journalism.
I’ve admitted my mistake. You’ve shown absolutely no willingness to question your own conduct.
You had every right to ask for credit. You chose to escalate instead.
This could have been fixed with one email. The fact that you still seem unable to recognise that is a far more damning reflection on your editorial judgment than anything you’ve accused me of.
Retract the complaint. Remove the strike. And treat independent journalists with the same respect you demand for your own.
Erlend retweeted
Opphavsrett er ganske lett: Ikke bruk materiale du ikke har tillatelse til ĂĄ bruke.
Hvis du er usikker så spør de som har opphavsretten om det er greit at du bruker det de har lagd.
Since a few Kyiv Independent readers have asked, I’d like to explain what happened with Caolan Robertson’s video, out of respect for our supporters.
Our team found that a video on Caolan’s @CaolanReports YouTube channel included a fragment of an earlier Kyiv Independent video, used without permission and without a request for permission. It wasn’t just footage. It was an animated map that takes our team a lot of work to produce.
Importantly, Caolan’s video cropped out our logo from the fragment. Instead of crediting our work, it fully removed the attribution to the Kyiv Independent. That isn’t citation or fair use.
Our team member did what is standard when your content is used this way on YouTube: They filed a copyright report. YouTube reviewed the case and removed the video. We follow the same process whenever our work is used without permission, regardless of who the creator is.
Worth noting that a removal like this doesn’t kill the creator’s work: The video can simply be re-uploaded without the copyrighted material.
So I was surprised that Caolan instead chose to publicly attack the journalists whose work he lifted, and to appeal to journalistic solidarity in a case where he didn’t demonstrate any.
Our team has been reporting on the ground in Ukraine since before the full-scale invasion. We’re independent, funded mostly by our readers, and we earn every dime. We’re very proud of our work, from front-line reporting to war crimes investigations. We respect the work of other journalists and expect the same for ours.
I wish Caolan all the best in telling his audience about Ukraine. If he ever wants to use our work, he’s welcome to ask, like anyone else.
We are all on the same side when it comes to this: We want as many voices as possible telling the world about Ukraine. But being on the same side means respecting and crediting each other’s work. Credit matters because the reporting everyone draws on has to come from somewhere.
Thank you.
Erlend retweeted
Since there are so many clueless people complaining about this action in replies, people should be aware that @CaolanReports has been stealing the content from actual authors systematically and for a long time - that thief doesnt deserve your sympathy!
Since a few Kyiv Independent readers have asked, I’d like to explain what happened with Caolan Robertson’s video, out of respect for our supporters.
Our team found that a video on Caolan’s @CaolanReports YouTube channel included a fragment of an earlier Kyiv Independent video, used without permission and without a request for permission. It wasn’t just footage. It was an animated map that takes our team a lot of work to produce.
Importantly, Caolan’s video cropped out our logo from the fragment. Instead of crediting our work, it fully removed the attribution to the Kyiv Independent. That isn’t citation or fair use.
Our team member did what is standard when your content is used this way on YouTube: They filed a copyright report. YouTube reviewed the case and removed the video. We follow the same process whenever our work is used without permission, regardless of who the creator is.
Worth noting that a removal like this doesn’t kill the creator’s work: The video can simply be re-uploaded without the copyrighted material.
So I was surprised that Caolan instead chose to publicly attack the journalists whose work he lifted, and to appeal to journalistic solidarity in a case where he didn’t demonstrate any.
Our team has been reporting on the ground in Ukraine since before the full-scale invasion. We’re independent, funded mostly by our readers, and we earn every dime. We’re very proud of our work, from front-line reporting to war crimes investigations. We respect the work of other journalists and expect the same for ours.
I wish Caolan all the best in telling his audience about Ukraine. If he ever wants to use our work, he’s welcome to ask, like anyone else.
We are all on the same side when it comes to this: We want as many voices as possible telling the world about Ukraine. But being on the same side means respecting and crediting each other’s work. Credit matters because the reporting everyone draws on has to come from somewhere.
Thank you.
Not the first time he does something like this. He also used our Human Safari map without asking for permission and without giving any credits.
The excuse that the cause is so important that intellectual property doesn’t matter is a bonkers argument.
Since a few Kyiv Independent readers have asked, I’d like to explain what happened with Caolan Robertson’s video, out of respect for our supporters.
Our team found that a video on Caolan’s @CaolanReports YouTube channel included a fragment of an earlier Kyiv Independent video, used without permission and without a request for permission. It wasn’t just footage. It was an animated map that takes our team a lot of work to produce.
Importantly, Caolan’s video cropped out our logo from the fragment. Instead of crediting our work, it fully removed the attribution to the Kyiv Independent. That isn’t citation or fair use.
Our team member did what is standard when your content is used this way on YouTube: They filed a copyright report. YouTube reviewed the case and removed the video. We follow the same process whenever our work is used without permission, regardless of who the creator is.
Worth noting that a removal like this doesn’t kill the creator’s work: The video can simply be re-uploaded without the copyrighted material.
So I was surprised that Caolan instead chose to publicly attack the journalists whose work he lifted, and to appeal to journalistic solidarity in a case where he didn’t demonstrate any.
Our team has been reporting on the ground in Ukraine since before the full-scale invasion. We’re independent, funded mostly by our readers, and we earn every dime. We’re very proud of our work, from front-line reporting to war crimes investigations. We respect the work of other journalists and expect the same for ours.
I wish Caolan all the best in telling his audience about Ukraine. If he ever wants to use our work, he’s welcome to ask, like anyone else.
We are all on the same side when it comes to this: We want as many voices as possible telling the world about Ukraine. But being on the same side means respecting and crediting each other’s work. Credit matters because the reporting everyone draws on has to come from somewhere.
Thank you.
Erlend retweeted
Since a few Kyiv Independent readers have asked, I’d like to explain what happened with Caolan Robertson’s video, out of respect for our supporters.
Our team found that a video on Caolan’s @CaolanReports YouTube channel included a fragment of an earlier Kyiv Independent video, used without permission and without a request for permission. It wasn’t just footage. It was an animated map that takes our team a lot of work to produce.
Importantly, Caolan’s video cropped out our logo from the fragment. Instead of crediting our work, it fully removed the attribution to the Kyiv Independent. That isn’t citation or fair use.
Our team member did what is standard when your content is used this way on YouTube: They filed a copyright report. YouTube reviewed the case and removed the video. We follow the same process whenever our work is used without permission, regardless of who the creator is.
Worth noting that a removal like this doesn’t kill the creator’s work: The video can simply be re-uploaded without the copyrighted material.
So I was surprised that Caolan instead chose to publicly attack the journalists whose work he lifted, and to appeal to journalistic solidarity in a case where he didn’t demonstrate any.
Our team has been reporting on the ground in Ukraine since before the full-scale invasion. We’re independent, funded mostly by our readers, and we earn every dime. We’re very proud of our work, from front-line reporting to war crimes investigations. We respect the work of other journalists and expect the same for ours.
I wish Caolan all the best in telling his audience about Ukraine. If he ever wants to use our work, he’s welcome to ask, like anyone else.
We are all on the same side when it comes to this: We want as many voices as possible telling the world about Ukraine. But being on the same side means respecting and crediting each other’s work. Credit matters because the reporting everyone draws on has to come from somewhere.
Thank you.
Erlend retweeted
Please stop spreading idiotic conspiracy theories from clueless morons (example in screenshot) - the claims are as batshit stupid as the BS claims for which we are legitimately criticizing Elon...
All this is achieving is making some of you look like morons...
Erlend retweeted
Russian Online Marketplace Ozon estimated that for Q3 2026 the damage from Ukrainian drone attacks was 30,1 billion rubles. That's in line with our assessment at @tochnyi for the attacks up to end of September 2026. Net profits for Q3 2026 were just 3,7 billion rubles.
Erlend retweeted
En myte om sanksjonene mot Russland er at de ikke virker, slik Kreml sier. Det er uheldig at forsker Julie Wilhelmsen gjengir den forestillingen skriver Erlend Bjørtvedt og jeg i @Aftenposten idag. Tallene viser nemlig at sanksjonene virker og redder ukrainske liv.
Erlend retweeted
This is (just another) idiotic conspiracy theory nonsense that has no connection to reality.
ICEYE satellites use electric ion propulsion for orbital maneuvers, so they can't quickly change the satellite's orbit (to evade interception), no matter how much the operator wants.
FINAL: SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
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New 5-page institutional brief & 60s 3D SGP4 orbital reconstruction with Craig Pirrong, Ph.D. @streetwiseprof | Data & Forensics: RAB @LibertyLynx
Pages 1-3 & 3D animation below; Pages 4-5 in Post 2; full 5-page PDF link in Post 3 🧵👇
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As Craig Pirrong's counterfactual framework establishes: The Russian intercept is not the smoking gun. The failure to maneuver is.
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1. The Sprinting Satellite Paradox & -96.64% Target Freeze (Page 1): Between Oct 13 and 24, 2026, Russian counterspace weapon COSMOS 2612 (68762) converted a 5-month, ~170 m/s co-planar trailing option into a 0.759 km sub-kilometer hold against U.S.-licensed radar satellite ICEYE-X36 (59103), which guides Ukraine's autonomous deep strikes on Russian oil refineries without SpaceX links, at the exact moment SpaceX throttled Ukrainian military Starshield terminals (-23.0% USF air-defense hits).
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In June 2026 (with no Starlink alert), ICEYE-X36 defeated a Russian approach by dropping 0.500 km, generating 71.08 km/day secular drift (3.62 km/h in the sprint frame), exiting Russia's 3.0 km braking box in 49.7 to 60.78 minutes, blowing past Russia's 12 km or under onboard KTZ sensor in 3.31 hours, and causing a 103.7 to 118.5 km miss.
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In October, as COSMOS 2612 fired a -2.2184 km (370.8x perched shock / 449.1x fit jump) burn to sprint 14.29x faster (400 km/day / 278 m/min), ICEYE-X36's evasion collapsed by 96.64% (to 16.8154 meters or less, P3 = 3.363%).



* Why? The Alert Itself Was the Weapon: SpaceX maintained a 0.401 km (0.711 km Oct 16) public GP collision alert via STARLINK-35856 (67013) despite holding internal v3/v4 forecasts 4.80x to 5.00x wider (1.925 to 2.003 km) and withholding autonomous Starlink clearance (M_Starlink = 0, W_X36 = 1, W_COSMOS = 0), legally freezing X36 under David Goldman's 2023 FCC Condition 16 (DA 23-797).
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* Rational Russian exercise across a 363.7 km blind gap required ex-ante certainty of K = (E1, E2, E3). Across all 5 capability levers, SpaceX is the sole actor (N = 1): Posterior = 99.893% to 99.978% (Tier A floor; 1 in 3,748 to 17,841) and up to 99.999% (Tier B K-set).
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2. Four-Way Tracker Blindness & What NRO/USSF Saw Live (Page 2):



* Public Catalogs (18th/19th SDS): Blind for 21.824 hours (363.7 km unobserved closure) on sprint (k6 to k7) and 19.385 hours on brake (k9 to k10, -382.71 km SGP4 delta).
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* Russian Ground Radars (SKKP Krona/Okno): Bounded by Earth curvature at 541 km to a 22.8 degree (2,530 km) horizon cone, blind for 8 to 10 hours/day (80% to 94.5% of the orbit) with zero Americas/Pacific coverage.
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* The Sole Unblinded Commercial Panopticon: Only SpaceX's Stargaze (31,000 star trackers, 40M+ daily tracks, 17M associated, 850 sightings/day, 7 to 15 min global custody / 99.73% 10-min hit rate) and sub-1-minute Space Safety portal (Appendix A & Section 4(b), with Chinese operators onboarded Oct 6 & 16) had real-time visibility across the blind gap, while NRO & USSF watch floors watched live on the classified High Accuracy Catalog (HAC / Space Fence / Vantor WorldView NEI), realizing 348 Starshield satellites in orbit (245 NRO spy satellites) sit on the same SpaceX bus.
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3. Contracted Capacity Is Not Combat Availability & The 6-Way C2 Collapse (Page 3):



* Combat Output = Sensor Availability x Link Availability x Platform Availability x Permission Arriving Before Mission Window Closes (T_permission <= T_mission).
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* The Two-Pronged Pincer: SpaceX weaponized FCC Condition 16 to freeze the Sensor Layer in orbit and a Commercial ToS ($500 liability cap) to blind the Transport Layer on the ground.
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* 70-90 km/h Civilian Baseline vs. 4 Collapsed Alibis: Civilian Starlink in Ukraine was already capped at 70 to 90 km/h since Feb 2026 (S. Beskrestnov). The Oct 13-24 101 to 161 km/h gate hit DoD-contracted military Starshield links (-23.0% USF hits; Oct 19 Nova Vodolaha strike). Musk cycled through 4 contradicting alibis in 12 days (blaming DoD/POTUS Oct 14 -> ToS offensive loophole Oct 24 -> "sympathy for poor Russian conscripts" Oct 25 -> Russian ASAT/debris fear Oct 26), while resolving the exact same "weapon ToS" objection on U.S. LUCAS suicide drones in Iran via a 5x price hike ($5,000 to $25,000/mo)!
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* COCO vs. GOGO ($8.8B+ Sign-Off Chain): Under Contractor-Owned, Contractor-Operated (COCO/OTA) deals signed off by Pete Hegseth, Stephen Feinberg, CTO Emil Michael, Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, Gen. Michael Guetlein, Col. Ryan Frazier, Clare Hopper & NRO's Dr. Chris Scolese, taxpayers fund the satellites while SpaceX's civilian NOC retains 100% of the physical thruster and velocity kill-switches.
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(Continued in Post 2: Pages 4 & 5: Statutory Breach Matrix, CTO Emil Michael's $7M-$35M OGE Clock, the $19.5B SpaceX Bailout Loop, Iran Round Two Magazine Depletion & Subpoena Schedule. Full PDF link in Post 3 👇) $SPCX $TSLA
Erlend retweeted
🎞️ | Moscow sky under attack: all airports closed
On October 23, reports of incoming threats brought air traffic across Moscow 🇷🇺 to a halt. Flights were diverted to nearby cities as aviation authorities suspended operations.
Our report examines the footage and flight data, and what the diversions reveal about the disruption to regional air traffic.
Credit: @delfoo
Erlend retweeted
🎙️ Tochnyi Weekly | Ukraine Strikes More Datacenters- October 25, 2026
Join us on the livestream for today's weekly podcast
▶️ Erlend ( @edrotning)
▶️ Joseph ( @JThomason88)
▶️ Stanimir ( @delfoo)
▶️ GAU ( @deaidua)
🗓️Sun 20:00 Berlin | 21:00 Kyiv | 15:00 New York
