Carl (@ebtCap) header
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Swing/day trader US markets. Always trying to improve and learn.

Sverige
Joined January 2009
Photo by Carl (@ebtCap)Photo by Carl (@ebtCap)Photo by Carl (@ebtCap)Photo by Carl (@ebtCap)Photo by Carl (@ebtCap)Photo by Carl (@ebtCap)Photo by Carl (@ebtCap)Photo by Carl (@ebtCap)Photo by Carl (@ebtCap)Photo by Carl (@ebtCap)
My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness
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Never underestimate the power of small gains. Small gains compound rapidly With 1% daily average gain, the account can be doubled in as little as 70 trading days With 0.5% daily average gain, the account can be doubled in 140 trading days
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Exakt. Hur svårt kan det va?
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I went through every single tweet Mark Minervini made since 2010, over 10,000 tweets.🐦 I found over 900 trade setups he posted, and made a model book of those trades.📈 If you'd like to have the model book, FOR FREE, click the link below.🏆 bit.ly/MinerviniModelBook Retweet🔁
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Yesterday's hedge fund short cover was the highest since January 2021 and ranks in the 99.9th Percentile since 2012 (GS)
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SPY surpassed my 1/6/23 target of 410 and is now running into overhead supply from last year. With lots of momentum and liquidity, SPY should have a new trading range between 390 and 431. Stay flexible moving money from extended stocks to names just breaking out.
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Quote of the Day explains recent WTF market volatility : “Close to 50% of options volumes are in contracts with a maturity of less than 24 hours. The greeks that arise from such short term options are very hard to hedge given the current liquidity in the underlying market.”
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Here are the worst starts to a year for the S&P 500 through 178 trading days...
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Which setups to trade based on SA? Notes from an excellent meeting by @PradeepBonde: 9mil - works in any SA 2lynch - when SA is bullish Bottom bounce - when t2108 <20 MB to downside - only when SPY<-1.5% and SPY is starting a down move Anticipation - only when SA is bullish
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The rally from 6/17 looks to be nearing the end. Today the market moved into 9 months of overhead supply and just above the the last rally high at S&P 500 4117. The reversal from the early morning strength is negative. Take profits and raise cash.
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My morning routine before I start printing
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Right now we have these important elements coming together. Could still be a bit early as far as the indexes are concerned. But with no recession the majority of the damage could be behind us as the best leading stocks emerge early. Inflation data driving rates is the unknown.
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The best traders in the world have made millions from one setup. The setup? A breakout from a base. But what do these bases have in common & what should you be looking for? Here are the most important characteristics of a proper base, broken down one by one 🧵👇
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KREMLIN SPOKESMAN SAYS UKRAINE MUST AMEND CONSTITUTION AND REJECT CLAIMS TO ENTER ANY BLOC UKRAINE MUST RECOGNISE CRIMEA AS RUSSIAN, AND DONETSK AND LUGANSK AS INDEPENDENT STATES IF THESE CONDITIONS ARE MET, THEN RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTION WILL ‘STOP IN A MOMENT’ - SPOKESMAN
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Mark Minervini's USIC 2021 Sample Trades plotted w/ @tradingview 20 setups spread out on 40 PDF pages with charts for before and after breakout. Train your eyes to find future setups! #STUDY PDF download here drive.google.com/file/d/1i4Q… Please share/re-tweet! 🔁 Sample charts
Guys and Girls, stay tunned. I'm pulling together Mark's sample trades from 2021 that he shared few days ago. To be able to annotate them yourself, I am going to include the PDF file I am making for me personally. Cheers!
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Good morning. Here’s a classic from Stan. Edge is important. When you see your edge, you must take it. 🦆 🐆
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Contrary to popular opinion, the indices are still richly valued.... $SPX is trading ~22X forward PE and $NDX ~28X! After GFC bust, all QE-end bear-markets ended ~15X forward multiple for $SPX and ~20X forward multiple for $NDX. ~20% downside likely before THE bottom.
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Many on FinTwit calling this a 'normal pullback'. A normal pullback does not cause stocks to go down 50-70% from their ATHs and drop 10% in a day! This is the unwind of the QE bubble - so far, the most speculative names and high growth stocks have been hit, indices to follow.
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Platt analys. Hämnd, lättkränkthet, utgruppsaversion pga skitgrejer osv är alla symptom på det man inom akademin klassar som ”honor culture”. Normer faller inte från himlen. De fyller en funktion.
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