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Joined June 2023
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the IB by rejection has been one of the most popular setups in our community.
but you have to wait until 10:30AM ET to use it.
so we wanted to see if there was another option for traders who want to be active in the first 30 minutes.
here's how you can trade the 15min ORB instead:
on 100 to 150 point 8:12 to 9:12 ranges on $NQ, only 44% of days took both the high and the low:
Today's range was 141 points. That changes everything.
On a range this big, only 44% of days take both the high and the low.
So I wasn't expecting a clean run to the other side.
What a big range usually gives you instead:
> a slower move into the high and the low
> price breaks one side
> rallies back into 50% of the range
> then reverses
That's exactly what NQ did today.
Keep the range size in mind before every trade and you'll take better positions every single time.
edgeful retweeted
0 of the last 14 Thursdays with a green overnight on $NQ broke only the IB low…
over the last 6 months, on Thursdays when the overnight session closed green:
→ broke only the IB high: 71.43%
→ broke both sides: 21.43%
→ broke only the IB low: 0%
10 of the last 14 green-overnight Thursdays on $NQ broke only the IB high.
takeaway:
green overnight into a Thursday = look for continuation longs through the IB high, not shorts under the IB low
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another day the 15min ORB high formed first on $NQ, and the ORB low was the target:
The ORB 1:1 RR
STRIKES AGAIN TODAY
Mark the range formed between 9:30AM – 9:45AM EST (Opening range / ORB)
• If the ORB high forms first → target the ORB low
What is ORB?
ORB = opening range breakout (the first 15 min candle of New York Open)
6 months NQ Stats via @edgeful
• ORB high forms first + agressive selling
→ 68% probability of sweeping the low
+$267 on $NQ after the 60min opening candle:
in 6 months, $NQ hasn't closed a Friday green after breaking yesterday's low…
over the last 6 months, on Fridays:
→ broke yesterday's low, closed red: 100%
→ broke yesterday's high, closed green: 88%
7 of the last 7 Fridays that broke yesterday's low on $NQ closed red.
takeaway:
yesterday's low breaks on a Friday = look for continuation shorts into the close
yesterday's high breaks on a Friday = look for continuation longs into the close
edgeful retweeted
this $NQ engulfing candle algo didn’t slow down when the backtest ended…
over the last 6 months:
→ $51,000 net profit
→ 61.9% win rate
→ 1.73 profit factor
→ 160 trades
→ -$4,325 max drawdown
then on untouched holdout data:
→ 75.0% win rate
→ 2.13 profit factor
→ $9,470 out-of-sample profit
→ $338 average per trade
takeaway:
the out-of-sample results actually came in stronger than training.
that’s exactly what you want to see before digging deeper into an algo.
trading is the only arena where you can be right 6 out of 10 times and build a fortune. or right 9 out of 10 times and still go broke. the game isn't about being right. it's about how you handle both outcomes.
after the 8 AM range on $NQ got swept, price came back to the midpoint 80.2% of the time:
this $NQ IB stat keeps showing up near the top of edgeful discovery…
over the last 6 months:
→ IB high broke first, IB low never broke: 85.14%
→ IB low broke first, IB high never broke: 80.85%
63 of the last 74 sessions that broke the IB high first on $NQ never broke the IB low.
takeaway:
first IB break on $NQ = favor continuation in that direction, not a reversal to the other side of the IB
edgeful retweeted
London's close has called the New York direction on most $NQ Thursdays…
over the last 6 months, on Thursdays:
→ London closed green, New York closed green: 83%
→ London closed red, New York closed red: 71%
20 of the last 26 Thursdays, New York closed the same color as London on $NQ.
takeaway:
check London's close before the Thursday open = favor New York continuing in that direction
ES & NQ Live: Key Levels, Daily Bias & ORB Setups | Oct 30 with James & Dan nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1AGRnZQYy…
over 3 years, $ES double break days reached the 50% extension 68.49% of the time:
$ES – 15min Opening Range
What happens when price breaks BOTH sides of the NY Opening Range?
I used the @edgeful Custom Report Builder to test whether a double break could offer a statistical edge.
The results were interesting 👇
Over the last 3 years:
- 774 sessions analysed
- 292 sessions broke both sides of the ORB
- 200 continued to the 50% extension
- 68.49% hit rate
So, when $ES breaks one side of the 9:30–9:45am ORB, reverses and breaks the opposite side, price has continued to the 50% extension roughly 2 out of 3 times.
The chart below shows exactly how this can play out.
ORB high breaks → price reverses → ORB low breaks → 50% extension hit. 🎯
Data: @edgeful
this $ES IB algo made $21,088 profit in the last 6 months... check it out:
over the last 6 months:
→ $21,088 net profit
→ 72.9% win rate
→ 3.10 profit factor
→ 48 trades
→ -$2,700 max drawdown
then on untouched holdout data:
→ 77.8% win rate
→ 4.69 profit factor
→ $3,875 out-of-sample profit
→ $431 average per trade
takeaway:
the holdout sample is only 9 trades, so don’t overreact to the exact numbers…
but the strategy stayed profitable, the win rate improved, and the profit factor expanded on unseen data.
want to try this $ES IB algo yourself?
it's inside the edgeful algo templates:
edgeful.com/features/algos
the day after FOMC reversed the FOMC close 85% of the time on $NQ:
the 8 AM range on $NQ played out again on Tuesday, low swept first and then the high…
over the last year, $NQ broke both sides of the 8 AM hour on 152 of 258 days: 58.91%
if you keep expecting the first 5min ORB break to hold on Thursday, the data disagrees…
over the last 6 months, on Thursdays:
→ double break: 69.23%
→ only the ORB high broke: 23.08%
→ only the ORB low broke: 7.69%
18 of the last 26 Thursdays, $NQ broke both sides of the 9:30–9:35 ORB.
takeaway:
first 5min ORB break on a Thursday = look for a reversal to the other side of the ORB
