Bill S.

This is not going to be your average strong el nino run up to Christmas this year as its unlike the analogs of strong el ninos. If you just stare at the strength of the el nino,you miss other things going on around it that are causing mitigation Remember we have been talking about this since before the stratwarm showed up, that is just an extra spice for the stew. Look at the forecast for what is now thru DEC 25 vs the mean of strong el ninos. BTW maybe if this goes opposite of it, we will cut with the super nino krap. On an objectively weighted scale using MEI,RONI 3.4 and SOI. this is far short of 82-83 and is likely to peak under it

I feel like given all the talk about stratospheric warming and polar vortex disruption some things need to be clarified: 1. A SSW(sudden stratospheric warming) and potential subsequent reversal in winds associated with the stratospheric polar vortex DO NOT guarantee wave reflections back to the troposphere or coupling. It can have significant impacts should coupling/reflections to the lower atmosphere occur, but that is something that is still an unknown and will need to be observed in coming days and weeks. Wave reflection can have impacts sooner, coupling can take longer. 2. Notice how I said weeks… there is usually a lag period between the actual disruptive warming event/reversal itself and subsequent downward reflection and/or potential coupling. This can take time, and is still not a guarantee. 3. With the above being said this may have impacts on our pattern at 500 MB down the road come mid/late November, but right now that is TBD. In any case the Nino enhanced sub tropical jet will lead to increased storminess, with wetter and cooler potential for the southern tier of the United States as we move deeper into November, that’s just Nino climo. So while this may be exciting for winter weather enthusiasts and while this event is extraordinary given the environment and time of year it is occurring, nothing is set in stone as of yet. Could this lead to a colder pattern later into November? Yes. Could wave propagation simply be absorbed by the stratosphere leaving a weakened vortex with little downward propagation/surface effects? Also yes. (The second scenario still doesn’t preclude downward coupling later down the road) We know this will more likely than not significantly disrupt the polar vortex, but we still need to have some patience and observe downward coupling/wave propagation over the next 2-4 weeks. Canada is also going to remain quite warm during this time, so any true cold will need to originate via cross polar flow should we get enough polar blocking. Just several things to think about before we get either too hyped up, or too dismissive of this event at the moment.