die with memories, not dreams
Earth
Joined September 2020
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Polymarket was hit for the third time this year, and this one came through the front door. On Thursday, 995 accounts were drained on the real polymarket..com. No phishing link, no fake airdrop
The culprit was a poisoned DebugBear script, a tool that only measures page speed. It hijacked logged in sessions, dumped open positions at progressively worse prices, then swapped everything into POL, which can’t be frozen like stablecoins. The attacker’s wallet hit about $2.65M
@Polymarket paused trading and the relayer, and says every affected user will be made whole
Still, no smart contract was touched in any of the three hacks. We spent a decade making the blockchain unbreakable, then put a speed tracker next to people’s money
That’s the real lesson for builders on @Base and every other chain: the contract can be flawless and users still lose everything through the frontend. Audit the third party scripts on your app the way you audit your contracts, and lock down your CSP
Polymarket has confirmed a POLY token and airdrop. Base is still exploring a network token. Neither has launched, no dates
My expectation: @Polymarket eventually builds its own L1/L2, HyperEVM style. Speculation, but at this volume it would make sense 👀
Prediction markets are scaling while @Base pivots toward trading and payments. Both tokens are on my watchlist 👀
/@Polymarket tiers are live
Bronze to Obsidian, rebates paid daily in pUSD, and a one time bonus every time you level up. Top tier gets 50% back + $25k
Only taker trades count, and tiers run on weighted volume, not raw volume. Crypto markets weigh the most
Look at the Fees Paid chart: one red bar, and the rest barely register
$1.05m of the $1.35m in daily fees comes from @Polymarket. That's roughly 78% of the ecosystem riding on a single customer
when a high volume app spins up its own chain, it's not just fees that leave. Liquidity, users, and the narrative go with it
An app chain makes sense for Polymarket: gas control, MEV control, its own sequencer revenue
For Polygon, the risk is obvious
Meanwhile, @Base... isn't it about time for a token?
$pPOLY is trading at $17.3, only 12% above its $15.50 sale price
At $15.50, the sale implied a $15.5B Polymarket valuation.
On that same scale, $17.3 reads as $17.3B
This is the token's implied readout, not a standalone valuation of @Polymarket
important: $pPOLY ≠ $Poly. It is not Polymarket equity and confers no ownership in the company
will @Base get a token like $pPOLY too?
Prediction markets topped 1.1B trades in Q3
Volume has doubled since the start of the year. @Polymarket is at the center of that growth, continuing to post record volumes of its own and holding the largest share of the market
Kalshi also had a fast quarter
Quick summary of the $pPOLY / Polymarket talk:
Binance wallet + PancakeSwap launched Pre Access: indirect, tokenized exposure to companies that may go public. First project isn't announced yet
An on chain wallet received pPOLY (Paimon's Polymarket SPV token), so people are guessing it's the first one
pPOLY is NOT the @Polymarket token. Nothing official yet
wait for announcements. DYOR
Jacob is a strong hire. He's one of the sharper product minds in crypto, and @Polymarket DeFi needs that
But Zora had elite marketing and hype, and the airdrop still felt like a letdown. Scroll before it marked the same shift: the generous airdrop era is fading. Hoping his token design lessons from Zora don't shape a potential POLY drop 👀
Same question applies to a potential @base drop: hype is easy, distribution is the hard part
Calling all crypto twitter.
I'm proud to announce that Jacob Horne @js_horne has joined Polymarket. He will be working closely with me on product, in particular making Polymarket DeFi great again.
Jacob is amongst the best product and innovation minds in crypto. Before this, he was CEO of Zora. He built multiple beautiful products (I was one of the first users of the first version in 2020). Now he's got the PMF and distribution of Polymarket. I'm so excited to work with him.
We'll be hosting a Polymarket DeFi town hall soon to hear from our longtime users and lay out the plan to make the Polymarket DeFi product the best it’s ever been. In the meantime, DM your feedback to @js_horne or me and we'll action it.
To the DeFi community, we know the performance of the onchain product has waned as we've scaled, and it hurts us to hear the frustration of the people who love Polymarket and have supported us for so long thinking we’ve pivoted all focus to US, but just know we're working behind the scenes to unify the products and make Polymarket better than ever, across all surface areas.
Correction: earlier I said @Polymarket hit #1 on the App Store, but I forgot to mention that was specifically in the Finance category
Turns out it's actually doing even better Polymarket is now #3 on the overall Top Charts across the entire App Store
On top of that, Polymarket US just posted a new all time high in trading volume
Polymarket OTC deal surfacing: equity + token warrant, $5M+ size
No official token confirmation yet, but structuring it with a warrant says a lot. Someone's betting on a TGE
@Polymarket's been on a tear lately.
if the token drops, this could age really well
watching this closely 👀
That recent ad reportedly cost @Polymarket close to $25M and they've already confirmed creators on X will get paid in $Poly
The competition is basically nonexistent:
→ only 500 accounts are officially tied to Polymarket
(staff, traders, tools, researchers)
→ just 150 - 300 people post their trades or thesis monthly
→ only 110k users even have X linked to their Polymarket account
So if you post one trade breakdown a month, you're already Top 300 - 500 in Polymarket creators
Kalshi's quiet takeover 📊
Since April 2026, Kalshi's weekly volume has blown past $3B while Polymarket's stuck under $600M. Regulated US access is doing what on chain transparency alone couldn't
@Polymarket's move to base was the right technical call just came too late to stop the bleed. Distribution beat decentralization this round
@base #base #polymarket
New cert just dropped:
api.defi.polymarket.com first issued Aug 18, still returning 503
@Polymarket quietly building a separate DeFi API? 👀
Could be splitting infra from the US regulated side
Is Polymarket next? 👀
Been looking at some of the biggest airdrops in this cycle the common thread? Every single one of them put community first before anything else
So the real question is: is @Polymarket about to write its own chapter in crypto history?
A few facts worth sitting with:
• Just closed a raise north of $1B at a $20B valuation
• Pulled their IPO plans off the table
• And now... radio silence on next steps
That silence feels intentional. when a team raises that much capital, hits that kind of valuation, and then quietly shelves a public listing they're not slowing down. They're building toward something they don't want telegraphed yet
My take: this isn't a team playing it safe. This looks like a setup for something bigger than anyone's currently pricing in
$POLY watchers, you paying attention?
Fired, moving to a new position within @polymarket, or quit?
it would be pretty funny if this all turned out to be a $poly marketing stunt but the hopium is pretty low
For those hoping for a $POLY airdrop: only 110k @Polymarket users have linked their X account that's just 3.5%.
Even fewer post quality content regularly
Competition is basically zero
if you believe in the airdrop, just keep posting.
For me it'd be a nice bonus, not counting on it. Your call
The only trend keeping up with AI right now: prediction markets
@Polymarket reportedly targeting a $20B valuation, up from $9B last year
Robinhood’s prediction market revenue up 10x YoY
Monthly volume has been climbing for 2 straight years
Prediction markets are no longer a niche the supercycle is still accelerating.
Polymarket is valued at $20B +
@Polymarket is reportedly preparing to raise around $1B at a $20B valuation, according to Bloomberg
The platform was valued at $15B in its previous round and also received a $600M investment from ICE, the parent company of NYSE
Polymarket has clearly gone from a crypto niche to a serious financial platform.
If this round closes at $20B, it could be a major milestone for prediction markets
growth continues @Polymarket 👀
wen $Poly
This quoted post is unavailable.
It would be good if this was something about @Polymarket's own chain and $Poly token 👀
