fintechgirl 🇰🇷

my posts are for entertainment purposes. not financial advice

how you do anything is how you do everything

today the korean news channel journalist was asking to see passerby stock portfolio in their phones every person filmed in the news had huge blue numbers (blue is negative pnl) trading halted within three minutes of the bell as the index suffered an eight percent intraday collapse my son's classmate mother was frowning over the phone with a look of dread she's now paying the price of her daily morning buy-the-dip dopamine hit the samgyeopsal-jib uncle who's usually of cheery nature has his eyes glued on the MTN financial news channel, the side of his lips twitching incoming legislative leaders are pushing strict limits on power grid allocations, directly threatening hyperscale data center expansion american tech giants are reassessing planned capital expenditure, forcing a sharp downward revision in high-bandwidth memory orders HBM that Korea is known for foreign institutional funds unloaded nearly one trillion won in local equity within hours sub-system packaging firms, test equipment suppliers, and power infrastructure vendors are now facing secondary earnings drawdowns retail margin accounts across the country met forced liquidation if this insight helped you, share this update with a friend or drop your thoughts in the replies below

how could you have watched this video and not known it was the top?

the high priests of the AI bull run has been taken out on the sacrificial altar every mania, the sheeple want to follow, and blindly did they every cycle there are these charlatans. full of conviction, less of common sense common sense dictates - memory companies are cyclical, today they found out chip stocks are cyclical, today they found out neoclouds have horrible economics, today they found out giving 20+ year old kids billions to manage is a bad idea, today they found out wanton debt to grow topline is terrible, today they found out I've fed my family from manias simply by applying common sense. crypto, meme stonks, now AI I declare yesterday the official end of the AI mania. the AI hopium peddled was insufferable anyway at least the previous manias had good memes

I told you so

GPU rental rates are crashing as supply surges: • Blackwell scaling pushes H100/A100 prices down • Neoclouds & P2P (Lambda, RunPod, Vast) undercut hyperscalers by 50%+ • AMD MI300 & ASIC competition mounting H100 SXM rates hit sub-$2.50/hr on alternative clouds Scarcity is over.

Retail keeps buying the AI trade bags institutions are dumping

Thinking about it, the real issue with the KOSPI getting crushed right now is a problem 100 times more serious than the retail investors' accounts melting away. By the original principles of the National Pension Service, it should have been standard procedure to mechanically partial-sell Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at the peak during the first half's KOSPI bull market (rebalancing for profit-taking) and then shift to other assets in line with market conditions. But the government, in the name of propping up the stock market, drastically raised the target allocation for domestic stocks from 14.9% to 20.8% and blocked any selling. The butterfly effect from this self-inflicted policy blunder is truly horrifying. 1. Foreigners got the perfect chance to wash their hands of it and exit With the increased allocation, pension funds poured into market cap leaders #1 and #2, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Add in companies' treasury stock buybacks on top, creating a solid buy wall on the downside—so from the foreigners' perspective, it was like "jackpot," letting them safely realize full profits at historic highs, convert to dollars, and stroll out leisurely. 2. National Pension's 'liquidity trap' (can't sell even if they wanted to) Once foreigners dumped everything and left, the semiconductor peak-out hit along with a crash market, sending returns plummeting compared to the highs. But the National Pension can't cut losses now even if it wants to—absolutely not. The moment they start selling, the KOSPI triggers a circuit breaker and the whole market collapses, so all they can do is sit there dumbfounded, holding the bag. Even in the current state, 240 trillion won of the National Pension has already evaporated. If this semiconductor slump and foreign exodus drag on, turning the KOSPI into a sustained downtrend, it could disintegrate up to 400–500 trillion won into thin air. That would push the existing National Pension depletion date from [2055] to [2045–2047], advancing it a whopping 8–10 years. What this all boils down to is: 1. Those born in the '90s will see the pension vanish before they even retire Someone born in 1990 hits fund depletion in 2046 at just 56 years old. They've still got 9 years until the legal pension payout age (65), but the vault holding the money they need to draw on in old age will already be bone-dry. 2. Those born in the 2000s will spend their lives just feeding someone else's retirement—and that's it A 2000-born hits their prime working years in their 40s only to find the fund balance at zero. With no reserves, it'll force a switch to a "pay-as-you-go" system where that year's collections go straight to that year's elderly, meaning 25–35% or more of your monthly salary gets pure-sliced off as pension premiums. In the end, '90s and 2000s generations become "the worst victims of a generational Ponzi scheme"—we've diligently had tens of thousands of won forcibly deducted from our paychecks our whole lives to cover the older generations' retirements, only for the money pot to run completely empty long before we hit payout age, guaranteeing us not a single penny. In a botched attempt to buoy the stock market by choking off pension rebalancing and saddling it with peak buys, this policy failure's price tag is one that the current 2030 youth generation is set to pay with a lifetime of blood, sweat, and stolen retirements. Translated post from @Dontgiveup_26

Activity is not progress. Social media consumption is still consumption Social media usage feels like work but it gets nothing done Stick to one lane and prefer long-term. Everything else is a distraction

Germany electing AfD is great news for world peace because the core policies of AfD is Germany first and less of the warmongering on the Russian front Warmonger EU obviously don't like that

So with the benefit of hindsight Ukraine can't win the war Strikes Moscow civilian targets to escalate with the aim of receiving retaliation Informs EU countries. Leaders start to warn population of attacks incoming Ukraine really all out trying to make their problem everyone's

Of course the meltdown starts on a weekend

It has suddenly occured to me that uncontrolled migration wasn't for the goodness of their hearts It was to receive males for canon fodder from poorer countries Fight for us and we promise you xyz. Most will die. The average Russian lives 25 minutes upon reaching the front because of drones btw

Is your portfolio ready for a rate hike?

Xi Jinping went to India and got food poisoning by their horrible food hygiene standards

Recent calls of the death of the petrodollar overstate what is actually happening. I do not see a U.S. freeze of Saudi dollar assets over old files. That is not the live risk. Saudi Treasury holdings sit near $142 billion. That ranks 17th. It is not enough to break the Treasury market SAMA is the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority. It is the central bank. It runs the riyal peg, holds the foreign reserves, and sets domestic liquidity SAMA still defends the peg near 3.75 riyals per dollar. It holds hundreds of billions in foreign currency to do that job. Breaking the peg would hit Saudi banks and contracts first Oil still clears mostly in dollars. Yuan use with China has grown. It has not rewritten Brent or WTI. The old recycling story is already smaller. America produces its own oil. Riyadh spends more at home and through the PIF. That shift started years ago First-order effect for energy holders: $XOM $CVX $XLE $USO still price off dollar benchmarks and physical flows. A records release does not change the bid for barrels Second-order effect if U.S.-Saudi trust keeps eroding: more Gulf-China cargoes settle in yuan. SAMA can diversify at the margin. It cannot cheaply abandon the dollar system it still uses to price oil and defend the peg. $TLT and duration faces a nearer risk. Markets price a Fed hike this week. Oil near $100 is feeding the inflation print. That is the rate story, not a SAMA fire sale $GLD and $UUP will keep reacting to geopolitics and whether the dollar remains the only deep market that works at size If you hold energy or Treasuries, watch China imports, Hormuz risk, and the Fed. Not a collapse headline Share this with someone sitting in $XLE or $TLT. Reply with the risk you are actually hedging. Follow for more of this.

my educated guess is Anthropic and OpenAI and Grok want to pace the frontier is because Google Deepmind just leapfrogged everyone with a gargantuan training run

Few understand that this is a military parade

ngl the sg rich one pretty zhun

Last December Lee Jae-myung sat through a land ministry briefing and snapped. Highway rest stops taste like cardboard and cost a fortune. He asked why half the price disappears in fees before the food even hits the tray. That one remark started the audit. By July the government moved. The retiree club Doseonghoe sits at the center of it. Doseonghoe is the alumni group of Korea Expressway Corporation staff. It formed in 1984 and now counts roughly 2,800 former employees. Its subsidiaries, led by H&DE, won rest-area operating rights for decades and layered 33 percent average fees on tenants, sometimes 51 percent Dividends flowed back to members as gifts and perks. That closed loop is why the club appears in every briefing. It turned public rest stops into a private extraction machine Tenants paid. Drivers paid more. Quality stayed low. I watched the first-order break happen in real time. Direct contracts replace the middle layer. Eight pilot sites go live in December. Fees collapse to 8-9 percent. Doseonghoe must sell its six remaining sites this month. Current and former Expressway staff plus their families are locked out of future bids Second-order pressure now lands on the listed names that treated rest areas as a closed club. $017810 Pulmuone runs a large cluster. $005610 SPC Samlip and $051500 CJ Freshway hold others. $282330 BGF Retail entered six sites last year through its unit. High-rent bidding no longer wins. Taste, price and service now decide the winner Traffic will not vanish. Drivers still need to stop. Lower tenant costs can produce 2,000-won coffee and real 24-hour stores. Volume may rise if the places stop feeling like a shakedown. Scale operators who already run logistics win slots. Pure fee extractors lose pricing power. The December pilots will tell the story fast. If prices drop and food improves, the remaining two hundred sites follow by 2027. Margins compress for anyone who lived off the old structure. Send this to anyone holding those four names. Reply with which pilot site you will check first Pic taken from my recent road trip