
💼 Entrepreneur | eCommerce Guy | @eComCatalystCo ⚾ Braves | Dawgs | Poker | Music/Piano | Travel ✝️ Jesus | Husband | Dad | Former Worship Pastor
Saint Simons Island, GA
Joined November 2007
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I rarely get political (for a reason) on social media. That being said, I predict that the Republicans are gonna get slammed pretty hard in this midterm. And yes, I realize it's normal for the party of the sitting president to lose the midterms, but this will be worse.
Yep. Seeing this not just in my managed account by adam, but also in my Fidelity account, across-the-board.
$META outspent themselves and ended FCF negative.
$GOOG did the same.
Fucking $AMZN just did it. God damn it, Bezos.
If it were just me, I'd keep buying the dip. And I will, but I think it would be irresponsible of me not to make some changes at this point.
Demand side is not slowing down. But that's not the problem. Funding is the problem.
Hyperscalers are building compute for the very ones they're funding, and if payments can't be made, both those buying compute AND the hyperscalers eat shit. But companies are cannibalizing their own FCF for expenditure into something that we know is already financed recursively. And if you don't know what that means, don't worry about it.
So if compute can't be paid for (OpenAI, Anthropic) and the companies building it are desperate to fund it (through debt or otherwise [looking at you class C $META shares]), even with blowout earnings, you're going to get corrections.
CAPEX was my red flag pretty much this whole time. That's not the fucking problem. The problem is funding, and whether that funding starts splintering some. And gently splintered it has.
Who knows what next quarter's actual CAPEX will be for $AMZN, but using basic math it's significantly lower, around $48b. They'll likely blow that out. I had a blowout after these last big 3 earnings calls.
So instead of just sitting on that fact, I'll be moving about 30% around tomorrow morning after the markets have had time to digest. It's time to stay in for the long run, but accept that it's okay to branch out and find returns that can carry some of the weight.
If you want even more diversity, look at my last post for Actively Defensive. 30% is about the max I’m willing to rotate out.
Thank you for your attention to this matter,
Yours truly,
Warmest regards,
What a shit show,
Ya boi
Can someone smarter than me explain what happened in the last 24-48 hours w/ the earnings calls, etc. I mean, the stock market (at least my porftolios) are a bloodbath and the futures don't look much better this AM.
Hey Amazon Sellers, anyone figured out how to get Business Reports (one of the most critical and most-accessed parts of SellerCentral, IMO) bookmarked to the nav menu? I continue to think this forced new SellerCentral is the worst layout ever. Combine this with the new AI-bots that make it almost impossible to open a case, it's so annoying. @amznsellerhelp @Sell_on_Amazon
fmckinnon retweeted
I co-founded Simple Modern 11 years ago.
It seemed insane to others. We would be competing with great brands like Stanley, Yeti and Hydroflask. We only had $200,000 while our competitors had hundreds of millions. But today we sell over $100,000,000 annually.
I'm going to share a secret of entrepreneurship that helped us do it:
Many aspiring entrepreneurs get stuck trying to invent a new product to sell.
It's a trap.
99.9% of successful businesses sell an established product in a new way.
"But if I sell something other people are selling I'll have competition!"
My response: Competition always comes with demand.
If you're launching a product that has no competition there are only two possible reasons:
1. There is great demand and fortunately you were the first person on earth to tap into it (unlikely).
2. There is not much demand for that product.
The most successful companies in the world are selling an improved derivative of an already successful product:
Netflix: Video + Streaming
Tesla: Cars + Electric Power
Apple: Phones + Apps & Internet
You don't have to reinvent the wheel.
You do need a different strategy than your competition.
Use this process:
1. Find a product that has robust demand.
2. Examine the strategies and strengths of the existing companies.
3. Find white space.
Ask: Where do your skills and abilities line up with white space?
When we launched Simple Modern, we had established competitors everywhere. These companies were well run. I didn't see any way we could beat them at their own game.
So instead, we considered what strategies they weren't pursuing.
The companies that were leading the insulated stainless steel drinkware market had initially found success in specialty retail (places like REI). Their success in these venues had shaped their retail pricing and margin structure.
They had higher retail prices and few variations.
We saw our competitors had left white space opportunity by taking strategies that:
1. Products built for physical retail and not e-commerce.
2. Underutilized Amazon.
We had extensive experience selling online, so we believed we could successfully compete in that white space. And we launched with lots of color and size variations.
It worked! As we saw initial traction, we reinvested all our profits into online growth.
Now, 11 years later we have a robust program with Amazon selling millions of drink tumblers every year. And our success with e-commerce created future opportunities with partners like Target, Walmart and Sam's Club. We are grateful for the growth, and we're grateful we found the white space to run in a crowded, high-demand category.
OMG. Cry me a river. I’m not a PM fan and the dude is offended because the University posted a funny lighthearted video. Nothing … NOTHING in that video of the kids suggested hate or violence or him being “unsafe”. UU had no reason to apologize here. 🤦♂️
First thing I see this AM. My Momma (Ginger) would have been 84 today. Lost her a few weeks ago. She’s having her best birthday ever and she’s with my Daddy but man, I miss her. ❤️
fmckinnon retweeted
One thing I’ve learned today is that a LOT of Airbnb hosts haven’t realized they’re actually in the hospitality industry, not the real estate industry.
1st day @apple watch user. Previously Fitbit then @GarminFitness Venu. Why does Apple Fitness/Health keep showing FEWER steps than my Ultra 4? Checked devices and Watch is priority. Phone will always show less steps so is it averaging? Anyone? @AppleSupport
OK, oddly enough, I was poking around looking at the settings in Apple Health after about 10 minutes. All of a sudden, it matched up exactly.Does this mean that they don’t sync in real time? Both the Fitbit and the Garmin apps would update literally in real time with step count changing as it did on your watch
It's about dang time! @Airbnb is finally intervening on the absurd "checkout chore lists" that hosts give you after you already pay $$$ cleaning fees.
inc.com/moses-jeanfrancois/a…
What's the craziest check-out chore you've ever had?
Hey @youderian here’s some more for you (enjoyed your confession email). Keep it up and ECF Live may have an Amazon breakout! 🤣
I keep getting this notification that I have $15 in @XMoney -- is that legit? Do I really want to go through all that info to get $15?
Does anything suck more than "unsubscribe" links that are broken, that give you a server error, or worse ... force you to "login to update your settings"?
fmckinnon retweeted
Breaking! Andy Stanley announced this morning that he is stepping down as senior pastor of North Point Ministries.
Long-time pastor Joel Thomas is being nominated to take over.
Stanley insists that while he's retiring from his job, he's not retiring from ministry and will remain on the Board of Elders and will preach as part of the pastoral rotation.
Calling my Amazon Growth Peeps:
Need your help troubleshooting a HERO ASIN crash. I'm stumped. Everything we've done to recover is failing. Not used to having to ask for outside help/eyes, but all the details are shared here on LinkedIn post at lnkd.in/p/eYv3z6aM
I’ve been seeing this all over X and other platforms. I hope @MLB is listening. Enough is enough.
Can we please get the soft porn ads off playoff broadcasts, TBS, Fox, NBC, @MLB? My son wants to watch baseball with Dada, but how do I justify that when a half-naked women could come on screen anytime?? This is America’s Pastime. Parents shouldn’t have to worry about this.
Hours after burying my sweet Momma, I was involved in a head-on collision on my way back home. Grateful my family isn’t planning another service and grateful that all parties involved walked away without needing medical care. 🙏
Louder for the folks in the back, Dave. I’ve been preaching this for years.










