lorcs (@fpllorcs) profile picture

lorcs

@fpllorcs

🔴FPL end-of-season rankings🔴 19/20: 3.4m 🫠 20/21: 550k 🫥 21/22: 61k 😌 22/23: 46k 😄 23/24: 29k 🤷‍♂️ 24/25: 54k 😮‍💨 25/26: 52k 🔄 Analytics FC AEQ / E1K

Joined March 2023
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Photo by lorcs (@fpllorcs)Photo by lorcs (@fpllorcs)Photo by lorcs (@fpllorcs)Photo by lorcs (@fpllorcs)Photo by lorcs (@fpllorcs)Photo by lorcs (@fpllorcs)Photo by lorcs (@fpllorcs)Photo by lorcs (@fpllorcs)Photo by lorcs (@fpllorcs)Photo by lorcs (@fpllorcs)
Who is the best Joao Pedro replacement? I'm going over my favorite picks and give my reasoning in this thread 🧵:
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The model is back. Free inputs: @UnderstatXG, @FotMob, @SpreadexSport/@sportingindex, @vaastav05, xMins from free @fplreview & @SolioAnalytics, any public studies on minutiae like red-card-advantage. Paid inputs: @FFScout data. Enjoy 👊🥝.
Image from The FPL Kiwi (@theFPLkiwi)
Image from The FPL Kiwi (@theFPLkiwi)
Image from The FPL Kiwi (@theFPLkiwi)
The FPL Kiwi (@theFPLkiwi) profile pictureThe FPL Kiwi@theFPLkiwiOct 22
Finished a long rebuild of my FPL model. It loves Haaland and hates Bruno 😭🥝
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There is no singular point at which a player becomes good or bad, this is binary thinking, which our brains use as a shortcut. As I said in an earlier post, if you think Palmer's underlying projections are too high, then one (or both) of two things must therefore be true: - Chelsea's team attack is rated too high - Chelsea's others attackers are rated too low nitter.cf/SolioAnalytics/status/… We are currently projecting him at 0.32 non-pen goals p90 for the next 12 gameweeks, and he put up 0.27 last season in the Premier League, and 0.38 the season before.
lorcs (@fpllorcs) profile picturelorcs@fpllorcsOct 28
Replying to @SolioAnalytics @FPL_Spaceman
At what point do Palmer projections become fraudulent? He has had ~24 months of poor underlyings and even as a Palmer believe / enjoyer his modelled baselines are starting to feel optimistic. What are the drivers for his baselines, and how do you solve for a problem like that?
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lorcs retweeted
JJ Bull (@jj_bull) profile picture
JJ Bull
@jj_bullOct 28
Really really missing FBRef these days, relied on it so much for years and nothing else seems to quite do the trick I just want something like when I go through someone's history like on Football Manager but with actual data, that's all I need
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FPL managers will call people who use models copycats, then all hold each other’s hands as they transfer out João Pedro for Nicolas Jackson. 💤🐑
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Let's just check in and see how Elliot Anderson is getting on... Yup, that'll do.
Image from Ted Knutson (@mixedknuts)
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Konsa guys all using solvers and software. Games gone.
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Cringe
FPL Raptor (Ross) (@FPL__Raptor) profile pictureFPL Raptor (Ross)
@FPL__RaptorOct 23
Replying to @SimplyFPL
Yeah it’s frustrating because the same group of managers use Review every week, never admit to using it, and get insanely good finishes. I think eventually it’ll become quite obvious but it’s funny to watch when you know 😆
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Image from JC 🚀 (@FPL_Spaceman)
Image from JC 🚀 (@FPL_Spaceman)
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On a simple 6GW sample, removing a player's best xG score decreases accuracy rather than improving it. There is some case to be made for down-weighting outliers, but throwing them out entirely is also throwing out useful signal, so be careful
Image from JC 🚀 (@FPL_Spaceman)
Harry (@FPL_Harry) profile pictureHarry
@FPL_HarryOct 22
Replying to @FPLPricey
I agree hes a great pick. But i do think the data needs to come with a caveat of the ipswich game inflating it. 8th for Xg per 90 for midfielders if you remove it
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lorcs retweeted
Rob T (@robtFPL) profile picture
Rob T
@robtFPLOct 22
💹 Market goal projections | GW8 Latest spread market-inferred projections for this round of PL games, via SpreadEx - assumes a player starts (Shared for info only - Solio model projections will differ)
Image from Rob T (@robtFPL)
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Man Utd’s underlying numbers under Carrick haven’t changed at all. 25/26: +0.37 npxGD per game 26/27: +0.36 Their goal difference has: 25/26: +0.94 npGD per game 26/27: −0.14 Last season the finishing and keeping were running hot. This season it’s the other way round
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lorcs retweeted
Luke (@dis_fpl) profile picture
Luke@dis_fplOct 21
battles I envisage are: Bouaddi vs Cherki in the centre Nunes vs Khusanov (mostly fitness) Foden vs Ndiaye I'm assuming O'Reilly will still be out. I'll update it close to DL if I get chance but just a heads up on thought process if anyone cares =]
Image from Luke (@dis_fpl)
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Look away now Gonzalo García #FPL owners 😅
Image from Solio Analytics (@SolioAnalytics)
Image from Solio Analytics (@SolioAnalytics)
lorcs (@fpllorcs) profile picturelorcs@fpllorcsOct 19
Replying to @SolioAnalytics
ok now do jp and kostoulas
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Gonzalo García v Dominic Calvert-Lewin, #FPL GW1-7
Image from Solio Analytics (@SolioAnalytics)
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JBT (@UtdJBT) profile picture
JBT
@UtdJBTOct 18
Thanks for the advice lads
Image from JBT (@UtdJBT)
Fulham Football Club (@FulhamFC) profile pictureFulham Football Club
@FulhamFCOct 15
Ryan Sessegnon could be a budget friendly #FPL option worth considering this weekend. ⚪️ 🔗 fulhamfc.com/news/2026/octob…
Image from Fulham Football Club (@FulhamFC)
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FPL Joe (@FPLJoeYT) profile picture
FPL Joe
@FPLJoeYTOct 13
#FPL GW1-6 edition: Expected vs Projected! ✅ Comparing: 📊 xG/xGC (expected goals) 🧠 prG/prGC (projected goals, from sharp market data) ⚽ GF/GA (goals scored or conceded) ⚖️ Fixture difficulty (prG/prGC of a "league average" team given this fixture run) Key facts below... 🧵
Image from FPL Joe (@FPLJoeYT)
Image from FPL Joe (@FPLJoeYT)
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Solio Analytics (@SolioAnalytics) profile pictureSolio Analytics
@SolioAnalyticsOct 9
📊 GW1-5: Touches in the box A look at the GW1-5 leaders for touches in the box - and more importantly, where they've had those touches and what they've done with them!
Image from Solio Analytics (@SolioAnalytics)
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FPL_Pig (@pig_fpl) profile picture
FPL_Pig@pig_fplOct 7
FPL is almost back
Image from FPL_Pig (@pig_fpl)
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Every FPL manager has agonised over a benching decision, and then end up starting the blank and benching the haul. So does rotation actually work? We checked @SolioAnalytics's deadline-locked projections for every 2025-26 gameweek against what actually happened 🧵
Image from JC 🚀 (@FPL_Spaceman)
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