Senior Analyst, Iran and Oil @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @ISSYale. Author of "The Struggle for Iran" and "Petroleum and Progress in Iran." Views my own.
Joined October 2012
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New pinned tweet, as the links broke for the old one:
"Petroleum and Progress in #Iran: Oil, Development, and the Cold War." cambridge.org/us/academic/su…
"The Struggle for #Iran: Oil, Autocracy, and the Cold War, 1951-1954." uncpress.org/book/9781469671…
"Trump and Vance met Wednesday to discuss a possible gesture of goodwill toward Iran, such as sending humanitarian goods like food and medicine, according to a source with knowledge. Later in the day, Trump publicly backed the idea." axios.com/2026/10/29/brad-co…
Iran's erstwhile head negotiator weighs in.
"Carrot and stick approach" a not-so-subtle reference to Vance's letter to Rezaee, which offered to restart negotiations but alluded to new strikes if a deal doesn't come together.
An incredibly detailed piece that should be read in its entirety. One point stands out to me:
The shadow economy described in this piece is, in a sense, Iran's real economy, as it is how the country's governing elite manage their wealth, distribute patronage, arm and supply the IRGC and other military/security bodies, and maintain connections to the global economy through intermediaries.
This underscores the thesis that broad economic pressure--while very damaging to Iran's civilian economy and to the Iranian people as a whole--is less effective at pressuring the regime or those who profit from it continuing to remain in power. reuters.com/world/iran/irans…
Notable emphasis on rising interest in a temporary deal from the US in @semafor, as well as misgivings within the admin re: escalation. semafor.com/article/10/29/20…
Notable:
"The tone of Vance's letter shows a marked difference from Trump's letter prior to the 12-Day War. In this letter, threatening language is much more subdued, while a soft and respectful tone is more prominent."
This quoted post is unavailable.
Vance's letter to Rezaee proposed an in-person meeting to restart negotiations, and insisted Iran's nuclear program must be addressed from the start.
Rezaee received the letter on Sunday. On Tuesday, he met with Supreme Leader Khamenei. His response is expected tomorrow. nytimes.com/2026/10/28/us/po…
I might be crazy, but Trump is implying that Vance's letter contained language regarding either the US blockade or the unfreezing of funds (the $6 billion in Qatar was originally released to fund imports of humanitarian goods).
Otherwise his reply makes very little sense.
Vance's letter to Rezaee--much like the recent push by mediators--was intended to push Iran into making nuclear concessions as part of a new deal.
Iran has resisted doing so for months. The alternative to a deal is a new round of bombing. axios.com/2026/10/28/vance-i…
More news:
Vance sent a letter to SNSC Secretary Rezaee, at Trump's direction.
Letter did not include a new proposal but rather a "framework" for negotiations. wsj.com/world/middle-east/va…
FWIW Rezaee is the country's senior most security official, a perennial presidential candidate and the first commander of the IRGC during the 1980s He was made SNSC secretary several months ago, reportedly at Mojtaba's direction; he also met with Mojtaba in person on Tuesday, according to the SL's office.
In other words, an ideal figure with whom to establish a connection for further negots. Question is whether it goes anywhere.
Escalation edging nearer, with mediators working intensely to get Iran and the US into a deal.
One takeaway: engagement with Iran appears intense, but the US (apparently) is waiting for a deal to come together before considering it.
Also: planned US/Israel escalation appears to be geared around a short bombing campaign aimed at leadership, civilian and energy targets. axios.com/2026/10/28/iran-wa…
Iran saying its seven-day plan can be implemented in four days, six days before the US midterms.
Subtle.
Araghchi repeats Iran's interest in a deal and indicates that it can move quickly to reopen the strait--provided its demands are met.
Iran approaches winter with damaged gas infrastructure and reduced production.
The government has assembled a special task force to manage energy supplies, is pushing citizens to conserve, and is likely to lean on alternative fuels and cuts to industrial output to get through the next few months. ft.com/content/77e4e4a5-a041…
