Geist

#Bitcoin – What’s Next? The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown I believe something really, really bad would need to happen for Bitcoin to lose the current level, which is a retest of the bull-market confirmation. The problem with human behaviour is that people mostly react rather than try to understand. $76K does not, by itself, change the entire BTC structure, but the chart has now reached a point where I clearly say: NOW, OR THE BULLISH SETUP HAS FAILED. Last week, I highlighted the $76K area around the MA50 Weekly. Let me make this clear: my focus is the moving average itself, not a permanently fixed dollar number. It is now around $75,500 on my chart. Because it reflects 50 weeks of price data. The MA50 Weekly which is the white line on my chart, is an important indicator in my framework for judging whether the market is in a bull or bear phase. Looking at the chart, its reactions have been incredibly accurate since the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin reclaimed this weekly trend area in 2023, pumped strongly above it and then retested it before continuing the bull market. In the following months of the previous bull market, BTC visited the level of MA50 weekly several times (Marked with a green dot on the chart) and the retests marked local bottoms DURING the bull market. So, if you agree with me that Bitcoin is in a bull market, this level should be the absolute last stop. Reaching this area is very rare, Since 2023 till 2025 it happened only three times, and each of the retests I have highlighted during the 2023 to 2025 bull market each marked a local bottom. The loss of the weekly trend line in late 2025 then confirmed the start of the bear market, this proves once again the importance of this level and this is why I say it tells us if BTC is in a bull or bear market. Let me make this VERY, VERY clear: this level needs to hold, and losing it would be dramatic for my bullish setup and it would prove that my analysis at 80k was wrong. The question on whats next if we lose the currrent level needs to be answered, and my answer is straightforward: if Bitcoin loses this weekly trend area of the MA50, I see continued downside pressure as realistic, with the Fibonacci Golden Pocket I am watching around $68K–$69K becoming the next extremely crucial support zone. This, only in case the MA50 weekly fails, and this is by far my absolute worst case. Does it mean that I would sell, or short. No, I hold all my spot from 60k and longs from 80k. That would be the next major area I would watch. So overall we can say that the MA50 Weekly is by far the MOST important level to watch out for. Regarding my trade, I am keeping it open. My long from the $80K region stays open. My stock market shorts, including the AI-related names, are doing exactly what I was looking for. SanDisk is down roughly 60% from my $2,008 short entry to around $800. IBM is down 26% from my short entry, MSTR is down 51%, Netflix is down 43%, and many other stocks I have shorted are falling hard alongside the stock market, the SP500 short is now only 4% away from my entry. Meanwhile, my earlier BTC spot purchases from 60k remain in profit. This is the art of trading. And this answers the question from people who asked me how can I short the stocks but be bullish on BTC, and the answer is right in front of you. YES, my recent longs from $80K–$81K are in the red right now, but the spot I accumulated at $60K–$64K are in big profit. While those stocks are crashing and giving insane short returns. I aim to keep my focus on the AI-related shorts by keeping them open while remaining bullish on BTC. Dont mistaken it with Crypto Related stocks such as Coinbase or CRCL. I consider this the local bottom before we move higher and continue the bull market. I will admit that I was wrong if we decisively lose this level of the MA50. That would indicate not only that my idea was wrong, but also that the move from $57K to $87K failed to establish the bull market I expected and instead became a bull trap, putting control back in the bears’ hands. Overall, I do not consider these levels a reason to panic, but rather levels to watch closely. Bitcoin has shown us in the past that it can reverse from exactly this weekly trend area and continue the bull market. One more indicator that tells me NOW OR NEVER is the short-term-holder cost basis, which is currently around $75,800 on the chart. This is the price level behind the short-term-holder MVRV ratio, rather than the ratio itself. Glassnode data, shows short-term holders are showing signs of capitulation, and I consider this a very good sign at support: more than 30,000 BTC were recently sent to exchanges at a loss. And as per CryptoQuant The pressure continues on recent buyers, including those who bought around $85K, $86K and $87K. These are the holders that are now panic-selling. Summary: Hold the current level of MA50 Weekly at all cost. Losing it will be dramatic for bulls and I expect the Golden pocket at 68-69k next in case we lose the current support. I remain bullish and I consider the current level of 75,500 as last stop , as the final support. Join Premium: DrProfitCrypto.com THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.