Market Investigators - Starting with Uranium and Nuclear
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Joined September 2024
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Chinese entities own 9% of Kazakh uranium at the mine. In 2025, China took 30.1 of the ~60 Mlb exported. Half.
Equity shows who decides, not where the pounds go.
Held forward: ~20% of the global contestable pool bound for China by 2035 (scenario).
ALT Kazakhstan's uranium production and exports
We go deep on who get what and how in our Uranium supply trap memo:
boundlessdiscovery.com/resea…
Uzbekistan is diverting scarce resources away from fertiliser production, 88% of which is used on Uzbek farms, and toward uranium production, which is currently 100% exported... now they want to double uranium production once more.
We looked at the constraints facing this ambition producer in our latest memo: boundlessdiscovery.com/resea…
Boundless Discovery retweeted
1/ Uzbekistan’s 15,000 tU uranium target for 2030 depends on five things it doesn’t control: a sanctioned Russian oil company, a copper smelter, the country’s fertilizer makers, falling gas output, and its biggest competitor. 🧵👇
1/ Uzbekistan’s 15,000 tU uranium target for 2030 depends on five things it doesn’t control: a sanctioned Russian oil company, a copper smelter, the country’s fertilizer makers, falling gas output, and its biggest competitor. 🧵👇
8/ Navoiyuran has met every target money could meet. Uzbek uranium is now a by-product business.
To forecast its supply, watch gas output, sulphur imports and the smelter, not drill rigs.
Full piece from Boundless Discovery: boundlessdiscovery.com/resea…
The US funding route appears to still be in play.
Aura’s 30 September financial report names DFC among the parties in ongoing discussions over debt and strategic equity funding.
Chinese involvement in the pilot would not, by itself, determine who finances the mine.
Aura has also added deal-making and mine-restart experience.
Incoming CFO Spencer Davey worked on Fortescue’s US$1.2bn sale of a stake in the Iron Bridge iron ore project.
John Carr, who helped bring Australia’s Century zinc mine back into production, becomes President.
We’re watching who supplies the capital, and who secures the uranium.
Our original investigation:
boundlessdiscovery.com/resea…
An update on Tiris 🇲🇷
Our 22 September report highlighted local reporting of Chinese operators preparing a pilot plant in Bir Moghreïn - 400km away from the prospective mine.
Aura has now confirmed construction in the town. The counterparty of their MoU remains unnamed 👇
The market appears to be pricing Aura as a junior with no financier while evidence points to a Chinese state-owned nuclear major deploying engineers. Aura currently trades near a 52-week low.
On 19 June, the executive chairman leading the financing also bought A$178,000 of stock.
If a Chinese SOE takes equity and offtake, Tiris reaches an investment decision by year-end and most of its 2 Mlb a year – about four reactors' fuel – is China's before the mine exists.
The West will be beaten to the pounds once again.
Follow for more and read the full report here:
boundlessdiscovery.com/resea…