Cross-asset regime models and portfolio tools. Equities, crypto, commodities, FX.
Joined April 2026
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Confirmed by the AAII survey. The 8-week bullish average is 34.6%, below the 37.6% long-run mean, and bears outnumber bulls by 11.8 points.
Sentiment is cautious with $SPX near highs. Positioning is not stretched to the upside, which keeps the setup constructive.
Seasonality is constructive for $SPX into year-end. The 2014-2024 average bottoms around early October, then rallies.
Our macro regime remains risk-on until proven otherwise.
$BTC is consolidating around $83.8K as price declines while OI rises, consistent with fresh short positioning. The Residual Desk signals a long squeeze, the 7D reading remains bearish distribution, and FSVZO is in a bearish reversal. BBPCT continues cooling toward neutral, while spot volume remains weak at -0.99σ.
Reclaiming above $84K could turn the growing short base into squeeze fuel toward $84.35K to $85.17K.
Continued rejection keeps the Rolling VWAP near $78.1K in focus.
The daily signal remains provisional until close. Short-term outlook only.
Agreed, and the dollar isn't done.
VMI has $DXY bullish, and price is still inside its bands, so this is trend, not extension.
We stay with the dollar until the model says otherwise.
Our VMI model agrees.
$USOIL moved into a bullish regime in early 2026 and has held it through every pullback since, including the summer drawdown.
Price remains inside its bands, so the regime is intact. Bullish until proven otherwise.
Half-lives are a timing lens. Our model does not forecast ATH dates, but it did catch the latest major silver trend.
The VMI regime turned neutral right after the top and we started scaling out close to the peak. A short bullish spell in April put us fully long again for a small move. The regime has been bearish since late spring, so we are not allocated.
We are patiently waiting for the regime to turn neutral or bullish on $SLV.
📊 Portfolio update: +38.57% YTD.
A quiet close to the month. The composite continues to consolidate below its year highs, with both systems holding their positions.
Nothing has triggered, so nothing changes. Each system manages its own exit, and until conditions deteriorate, the position is the position.
Trends need patience to develop, and they rarely move in a straight line. The same discipline that kept us out of the summer chop governs how we hold through consolidation.
The focus remains on systematic execution and disciplined risk management. Updated backtest below. ⬇️
The updated backtest shows a cumulative gain of +180.68% since January 1, 2025.
System 01 and System 02, combined in a daily-rebalanced 50/50 allocation. Both systems are currently positioned.
September 30, 2026 confirmed daily close. Historical backtested results do not guarantee future performance.
Inflation is rising into fading growth, and our macro model is starting to register it.
The inflation vector is now +33.3 and rising. The growth vector has faded to +3.7, close to the neutral line. The regime is still Spring (risk-on), but risk-off probability has climbed to 48.2%, from roughly 37% in early September.
That is a narrowing margin, not a regime change. Risk-on holds while its probability stays above 50%. A sustained move through it would shift the model toward the risk-off side.
Our macro regime history is attached in reply.
Oversold inside a bullish regime. Russell 2000 futures are still green on VMI, momentum weakening but above the threshold.
A bounce from here would be with the trend. A neutral or bearish regime is what changes the view.
$BTC continues to find a floor across the lower Rolling VWAP bands between $82K and $83.25K. The bands are tightening, signaling low-volatility compression ahead of a potential expansion.
FSVZO is signaling a bullish reversal, BBPCT has recovered into its upper half, and the Residual Desk shows 1D bullish accumulation. However, weak spot volume at -1.22σ still limits confirmation.
Holding $83K keeps $84.27K and $85.3K to $85.5K in play. Losing $82K would break the RVWAP floor.
Short-term outlook only, not a trade signal.
The market gives a $50k retest a 5% chance.
Our monthly FSVZO flagged the $BTC reversal in March. Both prior signals (2019, 2022) were higher 12 months later.
Right direction, wrong speed.
Crude exports are back at 108% of 2025 levels. If refined products follow, the energy leg of inflation fades fast.
Diesel and jet fuel are still at 50%. That's the piece to watch.
GOLDMAN: GULF OIL EXPORTS FULLY RECOVER TO 2025 LEVELS
Persian Gulf oil exports have doubled in September, reaching 23.3 million barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs.
Crude shipments have recovered to 108% of their 2025 average, but key refined products, including diesel and jet fuel, remain at just 50% amid refinery outages and shipping risks.
Goldman sees the global oil market roughly balanced and maintains its $85 Brent forecast for year-end.
Our macro vectors fit the puzzle. Growth has faded to +5.3, near zero, while inflation is +29.9 and rising.
That's consistent with yields tracking inflation more than growth. Regime is still Spring (risk-on), but risk-on probability is down to 52.7%.
Despite weaker-than-anticipated US economic data across both soft and hard metrics, US yields are rising yet again.
The plunge in consumer confidence brought key measures well below consensus forecasts, with the overall index dropping to 81.9 (vs. 89.0 expected), current conditions to 109.3 (vs. 121.2), and expectations to 63.6 (vs. 68.5).
Meanwhile, job vacancies came in lower than anticipated at 7.228 million (vs. 7.27 million expected).
Despite such data, yields are up across the board, with the 30-year US Treasury bond hitting its highest level since 2002.
#economy #markets
$MOVE has been in a bearish VMI regime for most of the year. It's now turning up, and price is pressing the upper band.
Rates volatility is expanding, but overbought means stretched, not a top. The regime changes back if price falls inside the mean and the regime returns to bearish.
Rules beat narratives. $GOLD's VMI regime has been bearish since early summer, and EV-U at -0.45 is well short of the -1.00 accumulation threshold.
No trend and no discount yet. We'd add on a regime flip or a move into the zone.
