K = (log₁₀P − 6)/10. Humanity ≈ 0.73. Working on the remaining 0.27 in this lifetime.
San Francisco, CA
Joined July 2012
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Ayush Ranjan retweeted
Crusoe CEO Chase Lochmiller says the neocloud debt angst is overblown because Crusoe is seeing an "overwhelming tidal wave of demand" that is deep and broad
“I think people are very focused on the public companies, the public neoclouds like CoreWeave and Nebius. And, I don’t have the exact intimate details of all the different contracts that they’ve signed. But generally speaking, I think we are very focused on the demand side of this equation."
"And we do have a lot of insight in terms of what we’re seeing from a demand perspective, both with the very big buyers of compute, as well as sort of the long tail of demand. And what we are seeing today is an overwhelming tidal wave of demand, and it is deep and it is broad."
"And so from our perspective, not having all of the exact details of all the different contracts and all the different loan agreements et cetera I do pretty firmly believe that a lot of this angst is overblown and is a bit of an overreaction."
"I know CoreWeave has made some very good deals. The deals they have in place, they are very good deals. And the interest rates on their unsecured bonds are going up. The rate they’re paying is still whatever it is, nine, nine and a half, nine seventy-five, something like that."
"So it may cause them to grow slower because their cost of new debt may go up. But from our perspective, the existing deals that have been made and sort of the demand picture of what’s unfolding, I think they’re in a pretty good position.”
Bill Ackman says Elon Musk might have to borrow a trillion dollars to open gigawatts of data centers, keeping rates persistently high, and that neoclouds are like levered real estate developers sensitive to the cost of capital
“So, I think it is sustainable because, you know, intelligence is again an enormously valuable asset. And I think the demand therefore for the compute that enables intelligence, I think, is going to be sustained."
"And, you know, the companies that are, you know, the hyperscalers that are building out a lot of this infrastructure have the financial resources, the creditworthiness in order to access the capital."
"I worry more about the pure play neocloud companies that are a bit like highly levered real estate developers playing a theme. I think they’re much more at risk. They’re much more sensitive to the cost of capital."
"But you have, I mean, SpaceX, Elon on the earnings call gave some projections for how many gigawatts of data centers he was going to open. If he meets his objective, he might have to borrow a trillion dollars of capital."
"So, you have companies competing at sovereign levels for debt. And the result is, you know, this massive, you know, more and more supply of debt. So, I don’t see a world in which, you know, there’s a dramatic, you know, there’s a lot of demand for capital and a finite supply. So, I think that makes rates persistently high.”
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
Power, land, capital
He who shapes power, data centers, chips and models into an economically feasible endpoint, disproportionately shapes AI/SI right now.
Why?
Power is THE binding constraint in AI/SI. Few really have it.
Data centers don’t work without power. This is not about promises of power tomorrow. Or forecasted power in 2028. Power TODAY.
Chips can’t operate profitably unless installed in a functional data center. If you can install chips, it’s because you’ve solved the power problem.
Models aren’t economically viable unless run on cost effective infrastructure which requires a functional data center with low input costs and reliable management. This can’t happen without power.
AI/SI ROI doesn’t pencil unless models generate profitable outputs which necessarily needs functional data centers as the critical input. Again, power.
Ergo, he who can shape data centers, chips and models together into a tightly coordinated stack is someone who has solved power.
Solving power allows you to disproportionately shape AI/SI right now.
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
The longer you postpone the life you want, the more responsibilities accumulate, optionality shrinks, and what once felt temporary becomes your permanent life.
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
Launching RNAFoundry.com – we manufacture personalized cancer vaccines.
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
Life becomes 100x more enjoyable when you start playing it like a video game. You have free will. You can literally do anything you want. Go anywhere. Build anything. Become anyone. The only rules that are stopping you are the ones you inherited from people who also felt stuck. Drop them. Step into the game with wild self belief and borderline greedy ambition. Dream so big it feels irresponsible. The life you always wanted is not out of reach. You just finally have to decide to go collect it.
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
You can reasonably believe this will be delayed from Elon’s 2-3 timeline. But it’s increasingly unreasonable to believe this won’t happen within 5 years and even more so within 10. Google just wrote a haiku with their mini TPU datacenter in space. And are stringing two together to create coherent clusters in their next mission. Blue Origin is hiring for project sunrise. Nvidia is dedicating resources to StarMind racks and space dedicated chips. 6 months ago there was an argument to make that it was just lip service. But there are actually investments being made (outside SpaceX) and results being seen.
You may not intuitively get it because it’s space but it’s happening. And it’s much sooner than you think.
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
SpaceX is able to get compute online faster than ANYONE else. SpaceX compute per building:
• Macrohard: ~340K GPUs
• Macroharder: ~220K GPUs
• Minihard: ~220K GPUs
• Gun Range: ~220K GPUs (coming online 11/26)
• Spam: ~200k GPUs (coming online 12/16)
That’s roughly 1.2M Blackwell GPUs (~2.2 GW+) 🤯
The crazy part is Elon said he’s highly confident SpaceX can add ~10 GW of compute in 2027. Massive growth is coming next year as well.
Macroharder and Minihard both have 220k GB300s with 800 gig nics configured for training. Gun Range will have the same. Spam (used to house Hormel products) will have ~200k GB300s, but configured for inference, so much simpler networking and less than half the fiber.
I walked the whole Colossus 2 site around midnight and again this morning.
Good progress by the SpaceX team and contractors. Gun Range is tracking to be operational by end of November and Spam in December.
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
$IREN vs $CRWV: The Market Is Getting This Wrong
$CRWV's ascent has been nothing short of impressive, with exceptional revenue growth of 1,262% in a little over two years.
However, that growth came at a cost, one that has the potential to take the entire company down.
In order to achieve near-hyperscaler status, the company took on extraordinary amounts of debt. More than $35B, to be exact.
With that debt came the requirement to pay interest, which now sits at ~25% of revenue. During its growth spurt, interest obligations actually outgrew revenues. And with that heavy interest burden, the company’s net income remains deep in the red.
Bulls argue that as compute prices increase and the debt gradually gets paid down, the company can eventually turn a profit. Yet that ignores the bigger issue, which is that $CRWV's business model is inherently unsustainable.
In our new deep dive, available to X and Substack subscribers, I broke down exactly where the company’s fragility points sit and why I believe even an improvement in credit conditions is unlikely to be enough to save $CRWV from eventual bankruptcy.
I also think the market selling off neoclouds and AI data center stocks indiscriminately as a result is creating an amazing opportunity to double down on select names that are built to weather this storm.
Having thoroughly contrasted $IREN's financial situation and business strategy with that of $CRWV, all laid out in the new report, I firmly believe $IREN is one of those diamonds in the rough that the market is getting completely wrong.
Likewise, $NBIS looks to be in much better shape than $CRWV, although the extent to which that is true, and how exposed it still is to this credit environment, is something I’ll cover in a follow-up deep dive going live to subscribers next week.
As I’ve now said repeatedly throughout this selloff, know what you own!
That means building conviction by doing the necessary due diligence.
Cheers!
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
Big goals for SpaceDCs moved from 27-28 to 28-29 now. Goals remains just as big to pump stock because $SPCX will need huge funding in both debt and equity for their 2027 terrestrial buildout.
Elon is the smartest entrepreneur of our time. The secret to deriving signal from his statements is to distinguish when he is talking literally versus figuratively.
Working at Tesla has taught me how to distinguish deadlines made up to make you work hard as possible versus real deadlines.
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
Neoclouds' Projected Operating Cash Flow for 2027:
1. $CRWV $23.2B
2. $NBIS $7.6B
3. $IREN $3.9B
4. $SHAZ $589M
5. $CORZ $513M
6. $CIFR $231M
7. $BTDR $198M
8. $APLD $148M
9. $WULF $75.4M
10. $HIVE $44.4M
11. $SLNH $5M
$IREN & $NBIS are the most attractive stocks in the AI cloud sector:
1. $IREN 297% | 2027 EV/Revenue 4.74X
2. $NBIS 266% | 2027 EV/Revenue 4.26X
3. $CRWV 106% | 2027 EV/Revenue 3.07X
4. $WULF 250% | 2027 EV/Revenue 10.5X
5. $CIFR 293% | 2027 EV/Revenue 9.93X
6. $WYFI 118% | 2027 EV/Revenue 2.45x
7. $BTDR 71% | 2027 EV/Revenue 2.24X
8. $CORZ 70% | 2027 EV/Revenue 6.49X
9. $DGXX 347% | 2027 EV/Revenue 0.77x
10. $SHAZ 999% | 2027 EV/Revenue 0.11X
11. $APLD 59% | 2027 EV/Revenue 12.2X
12. $HIVE 25% | 2027 EV/Revenue 2.41x
13. $GLXY 14% | 2027 EV/Revenue 0.23X
14. $SLNH 6% | 2027 EV/Revenue 2.41x
15. $RIOT 15% | 2027 EV/Revenue 7.42X
16. $CLSK 3% | 2027 EV/Revenue 6.18X
17. $HUT 95% | 2027 EV/Revenue 28X
18. $KEEL -20% | 2027 EV/Revenue 21.5X
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
$CRWV’s biggest problem isn’t its debt.
It’s the massive pricing upside it’s giving up by locking in AI compute capacity years in advance.
During the Q1 earnings call, management revealed that over 75% of its $30B annualized revenue target for the end of 2027 was already contracted.
During Q2, CEO Michael Intrator stated:
“Our near-term capacity remains effectively sold out.”
CoreWeave now has a monstrous $130B backlog.
But that revenue visibility comes at an enormous price.
AI compute pricing is skyrocketing.
Contracts signed in early 2026 generated roughly $10–15M in annual revenue per MW.
Today, some premium contracts are reaching $50M per MW.
That’s more than 3x the revenue per MW.
And prices keep climbing as demand grows far faster than new capacity can come online.
Every MW locked into an older, lower-priced contract is a MW that cannot capture today’s premium pricing until that commitment expires.
Elon Musk has emphasized avoiding long-term commitments for $SPCX, favoring shorter contracts at near-spot prices.
$NBIS CEO Arkady Volozh has also explained that Nebius intends to preserve part of its capacity for premium-priced short-term contracts, capturing higher prices and expanding margins.
Pricing flexibility is becoming one of the most valuable assets in AI infrastructure.
CoreWeave secured a $130B backlog, but sacrificed the ability to capture rising market prices on the capacity it already committed.
That said, I don’t believe $CRWV is facing an existential crisis.
The company brought 500 MW of compute capacity online in Q2 2026 alone.
No other neocloud currently matches that scale.
CoreWeave’s problem isn’t demand.
It’s how much of the upside from that demand it has already locked away.
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
What's happening in the sub-scale neocloud world is concerning
I'm seeing a lot of startups who raised money from VCs basically pivot into being neoclouds; the issue with that among many other things which I'll highlight in a minute is that neoclouds are not a natural fit for VC money. There is no 100x on the end of the magic rainbow for small cloud teams, at best they'll grow quickly but it's still a business limited by physics to a large extent and even the best teams will not scale valuations like true venture companies (not even close)
They're pivoting into the neocloud space because it requires capital (which they have from their investors) and it seems like a good business (rental rates keep going up), and maybe their original business plan isn't finding crazy traction
A lot of these teams doing this however are not equipped to handle the execution required to actually bring capacity online when it was promised to off-takers It's "idea guy" meets the real world, and "idea guy" vs "local electrician" is not exactly a great matchup for ideaguy
I see a lot of small teams "becoming a cloud" because it sounds good, but they're not close to being ready to really invest everything to ensure the RFS (ready for service) date they committed to their off-takers will be met by any means necessary. As a result I suspect there will be many lawsuits which actually will lead to the "Guppy Level Death" that Elon spoke about last week
For off-takers, it's a dangerous environment at the moment - a lot of bad supply in the market, and "providers" who are inevitably going to let them down. Same for lenders. I suspect the financing constraints will continue to tighten on smaller providers unless they're able to put the puzzle together in a way that sufficiently de-risks the counterparties involved (not so simple). Something we're very focused on at @computeexchange
To sum it up - Elon is probably right in that Guppy Level Death is on the horizon for many of the current sub-scale providers in the market. and what will force their demise imo will likely be lawsuits based on missed RFS dates and other forms of recourse. There will always be demand to work with smaller providers because 1. they can facilitate an RFS date that can actually support your business, and 2. they are more flexible on price than the big boys (which really matters)
So the long tail of providers will ultimately still be there, it's just a question of who in this batch is going to survive. My guess is not a ton, because execution despite what people say, is still not a commodity at least when it comes to physical processes (like bringing a cluster online). Many aren't up to the challenge, but those who are are worth their weight in gold to off-takers and lenders alike
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
On the “credit crunch” for compute:
- Rates are high because for the first time in decades, there is demand for capital due to a useful technology
- We are out of the Great Stagnation
- GPU rental and spot prices keep climbing up
- Comparisons to airplanes, fiber, or other capital stock miss the point: GPUs make themselves better via software and have insatiable demand *today*
- Credit will flow to those who can most effectively build compute & risk manage between short-term obligations (prepayments, interest) and long-term revenues
- The buildout will happen because intelligence wants to be free
Ayush Ranjan retweeted
The benefits of abundant intelligence will accrue far outside of San Fransisco.
Spent the last year writing about capital, sovereignty, and the coming reordering of economic power.
THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS
Commanding-Heights.com
