@hellholbrook

energy, industrials and datacenters @ @SemiAnalysis_ https://nitter.cf/t.co/0CdqJZWNzU

Atlantic ocean
Joined March 2023
ellie holbrook retweeted
SemiAnalysis warns that $ORCL messed up big signing fixed margin contracts that have already crushed their margins and will do more damage as chip prices rise. Oracle's gross margin fell from 79.1% in fiscal 2022 to 65.8% in fiscal 2026, while its total debt more than doubled to $167 billion. finance.yahoo.com/technology…
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ellie holbrook retweeted
What four weeks of SemiAnalysis consulting can do to a company “There are a lot of things that I can’t say publicly.” @AbhilashJain17 tells @JordanNanos to discuss neocloud DDs, SLA insurance, 100MW in 6 months, and how client asks became the AI Cloud TCO model.
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ellie holbrook retweeted
It's easy to hate the competition, but do you have the courage to hate your customers?
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Brother Jordan - statesman
SemiAnalysis' @JordanNanos predicts that chip startups will become the next wave of neoclouds, building their own data centers. "Cerebras has become a neocloud, Groq is buying Nvidia GPUs and spinning up a neocloud. Others like SambaNova are doing this themselves. We see OpenAI Jalapeño that'll go into self-build sites." "Chip companies are like, 'Not only do I need to battle in the supply chain for allocation like TSMC and the memory providers, I also need to go get my data centers set up. I need to learn about construction, I need to learn about day-2 operations.'" "Who's going to train people to repair a Cerebras wafer-scale engine and their 250 megawatts of compute they're bringing online in the next couple of years? It's them." "They need to build that capability in-house and frankly, I think they're going to realize a bunch of benefits to their margin profile for doing this. AWS and Google already proved you can do this with TPU and Trainium."
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ellie holbrook retweeted
In our ClusterMAX 3.0 article we shared some real examples of how changes in a cluster configuration can impact real-world performance out of the box. The simplest way to demonstrate this is with a training workload. (1/3)🧵
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ellie holbrook retweeted
Fentanyl Grade Compute: Why a GB300 Rack Will Out-Price Blow by Weight in 2030 A GB300 NVL72 weighs roughly 1,580 kg fully populated and recent purchase orders put it at $5M per rack. That is $3,165/kg. Strip out the 1.5 tons of busbar, manifold and coolant and the GPU packages alone are well into gold territory, but we're pricing the rack, because that's what you actually take delivery of. Where that sits on the illicit commodity curve today ($/kg): $2,400 Cannabis flower $3,165 GB300 NVL72 $3,500 Fentanyl $28,000 Cocaine $65,000 Heroin $138,000 Gold So today NVIDIA ships a product that is denser in value than weed, roughly fentanyl-grade, and still an order of magnitude short of cocaine. For now... GB200 NVL72 was $4M, GB300 is ~$5M, and Vera Rubin NVL72 is already quoted at up to $8.8M at essentially the same rack mass. Rack weight is constrained by the datacenter floor loading; rack price is constrained by nothing. That's ~1.75x $/kg per generation with HBM, CoWoS and power all supply-limited through the decade. Cocaine: Colombia's new president has pledged a hard-line security crackdown with $1B in US aid behind it Every prior crackdown has consolidated the industry into fewer, better-capitalized operators with better logistics and higher yields per hectare. Consolidation is deflationary. We model US wholesale drifting from ~$28k/kg toward ~$12k/kg by 2030 as the supply chain professionalizes. **Crossover: 2030.** Our extrapolated NVL72-class rack hits ~$17k/kg while wholesale cocaine falls to ~$12k/kg. At that point the rational cartel pivots to smuggling racks, except a rack has a fixed 500+ kW power draw, a 3,300 lb forklift requirement and an export-control regime that is actually enforced. Cocaine has none of these problems, which is why it will remain the superior product for anyone without a substation. Key risks to the thesis: US retail coke is still ~$60–200/g, i.e. $60k–200k/kg so the crossover only holds at wholesale. Retail compute (H100 hour on a neocloud) is also marked up, so we consider this an apples-to-apples wholesale comparison. Full model available to Coke Research subscribers. – at San Francisco, CA
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ellie holbrook retweeted
SemiAnalysis' @JordanNanos on the neocloud talent wars: "It's across the entire supply chain. We see this in electricians, data center technicians, and operators. Salaries for electricians in Louisiana and Abilene, Texas, are up 3x to 5x." "Crusoe just came in and paid these guys so much more money. But they're out of people. They need to train. No matter what job we're talking about, people just need to be trained." "The most successful neoclouds that we're seeing have this pipeline to take talent from other related areas and get them contributing to neocloud management and day-2 operations where a software engineer can start to work as an SRE on one of these teams."
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ellie holbrook retweeted
ORACLE DELAY🚨: We already said it in our energy model on May 29 and on our twitter on Jul 17.
We're starting to see some things *ORACLE SENDS FORCE MAJEURE NOTICE OVER NEW MEXICO DATA CENTER
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ellie holbrook retweeted
ClusterMAX 3.0: The Industry Standard GPU Cloud Rating System Returns In gory detail: reliability, performance, support, pricing —and, of course, security— in our most thorough analysis of GPU cloud providers globally semianalysis.substack.com/p/…
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