@ho_ben

Vassar (oft Columbia) behavioral economist (formerly White House & Cornell) working on trust, inequality, climate change Author of https://nitter.cf/t.co/ApYDXEtNdJ

New York
Joined February 2009
Time to do a proper 🧵of my book whytrustmatters.com. I only started twitter when it came out, now after a year of experience, using the occasion of the paperback release to try again. Also a year of book tour talks have helped refine my sales pitch! Why Trust Matters - 1/n
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On AI capabilities: the French press is all over the Haitian-Canadian novel C’était ça ou mourir. It's winning basically every award you can win, and was tipped to be the 2nd Canadian winner of the Prix Goncourt. Only one problem: 1/2
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Ben Ho retweeted
This paper by @davidautor & co-authors is one of the most important papers to date in the space of what AI does to learning. It's highly credible. And very much consistent with my own experience with use of agentic AI in research and teaching. nber.org/papers/w35720
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With apologies if someone has beaten me to the punch... I've cloned and updated the economics job market tracker from Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham to get a sense for how the market is going so far this year. Good news: better than 2025 Bad news: not by much
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“I actually completely agree that I was not right.” Brown economics professor @ProfEmilyOster still occasionally gets heat for her 2007 TED Talk. And she agrees – she was totally wrong. But not for the reason everyone else was saying.
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So excited that the public microdata is out for the Open Research Unconditional income Study (ORUS)! 1000 folks were randomly given $1000/month and a 2000 person comparison group received $50/month for 3 years. Explore it yourself here: data.openresearchlab.org/
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The Society of Labor Economists (SOLE) will hold its 30th Annual Meeting April 30 - May 1 at the Hyatt Regency in Baltimore, Maryland. The Call for Papers is OPEN. This is a fabulous conference for junior and senior faculty. MORE HERE: sole-jole.org/upcoming-meeti…
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🚨 It's finally out! 🚨 This is the big one. 100 cultures, 12,000 people, 108 researchers. Why people (and our most-used surveys) get collectivism wrong and how to fix it. Join me for a fun thread! 🧵 @NatureHumBehav nature.com/articles/s41562-0…
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In my classes: - oral exams - sit-down finals - team video assignment; students go somewhere together - in-class short writing (8-15 mins) - in-class no-AI brainstorming tasks (improve w/ AI) - projects with AI-use & in-person interviews w/ me - project presentations, Etc
This thread is ridiculous. College profs are innovating like crazy to keep students motivated and learning. All around me they are experimenting, sharing, learning. Not easy, when AI capabilities improve every semester. Tyler seems mad that unis don’t have a magic wand to make the problem go away. It’s a hard problem, we are proving up to the challenge.
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Why do many businesses in poor countries look overstaffed? Experiments in Uganda show employers and workers prefer redistribution via work to cash even for no-value tasks. Workfare-like incentives, reciprocity, and dignity shape firm size and productivity. econometricsociety.org/publi…
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PISA just dropped new test results. The headlines are unequivocal: "lowest OECD scores ever recorded"; "US at its worst mark in history." A year-plus of learning "lost." Then comes the usual hand-wringing about American kids falling behind other countries we presume we should beat. I want to call a pause to this for just one moment and ask: what exactly does PISA measure? A few years back we published a paper that puts things into perspective: ideas.repec.org/p/feb/framed… Surprise students with cash for right answers just before a PISA-style test begins and US scores jump substantially; Shanghai scores don't move. Same kids, same knowledge, different effort, different PISA percentile. In this way, the paper shows that PISA scores bundle two things: what kids know and whether they feel like showing it on a test that counts for nothing in their lives. I suspect the same happened this year, and the fact that over 40% of US test-takers didn't even bother finishing the accompanying questionnaire is consistent with that hypothesis. That number was so high that the OECD flagged the US results for potential bias. I am not saying that US education is fine. Indeed, quite the opposite, as we should be doing much, much more, beginning prenatally. I am just calling into question the received wisdom: "American kids know a year less than they did" and "American kids try less on tests that don't matter" are different diagnoses with very different treatments.
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One unintentional way AI jargon is creeping into working papers is that when you see the jargon a lot in your own paper, you stop noticing. If you don’t want your papers to sound like AI, you gotta resist letting AI write the first drafts as well.
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How much of published finance holds up? I attempted to replicate the main result of every paper in JF, JFE & RFS, 2000–2020. 1,328 in-sample replications; 1,005 out-of-sample. 75% reproduced in sample. But only 42% in later data. Median coeff. : 0.93 → 0.45 of the published.
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Flipping the little "improve mode for everyone" toggle to off apparently does not commit OpenAI to not training on your data. I'm confused by this too, but if you visit privacy.openai.com/ you will see the much clearer "do not train on my content" & you can make a request there
if you're working on a problem that you expect a lab to tackle within your lifetime, gentle reminder to disallow training on your data this is in everyone's best interest, to avoid any sort of ambiguity on who to attribute discoveries to
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Ben Ho retweeted
The Erdős–Sós conjecture is a shockingly simple statement about graphs that we did not know was true: a (simple) graph with average degree > t−2 contains every tree on t vertices. A few days ago, Astra proved it. Here's a simple exposition. 1/
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Another nail for the IV coffin. Glad to see this paper @i4replication. econstor.eu/handle/10419/343…
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The MIT extropian club used to meet in my dorm room like 30 years ago. (My roommate was a member, not me). Then I never heard anyone else use the term for decades, but funny how extropians have had this thread of influence all this time.
Why are the leaders of AI companies saying "Our products are going to extinguish humanity. Invest in us!" They come from an eccentric Berkeley subculture in which this eschatology is a sacred belief. Good analysis in a NYT op-ed by Cal Newport. nytimes.com/2026/09/05/opini…
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This impressed me: I asked GPT-6 Astra to turn Zork (the classic 1977 text adventure) into a full 3D action-adventure game It kept the original plot & puzzles, added fight scenes, and built all of the characters & environments directly in Threejs Play: zork-underground-empire.netl…
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Very close with Astra to autoformalization, incl. in econ. 1) Journals will require this soon, or should (I recommended AEA start planning for tihs last year), 2) Constructive math coming soon (I'd still bet on Millennium Problem by 2027), 3) More to math than formal verification
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This is an exceptionally simple and clever approach to replication. Because Google Trends data is randomly sampled from the universe of Google searches, you can test the robustness of studies that rely on Google Trends by simply applying them to the data for the same query run the next day. True to form, the effect sizes from these replications are smaller than the original, consistent with selection on significance and/or researcher degrees of freedom.
🧵 New DP from I4R co-director Lester Lusher, with @Sonia00621, @IslamShafi21676, Huda Osman & Jacob Stenstrom (Pitt): "When Samples Shape Significance." What happens when you re-estimate published results using fresh draws of the same data? Some evidence from Google Trends!
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Ben Ho retweeted
Taxes on wealth or unrealized capital gains are a bad idea. Not just because of all the well-known implementation issues. But also in theory. Our paper, now forthcoming in Econometrica:
When Jeff Bezos's Amazon stock doubles, should his tax bill? No, say Mark Aguiar, @ben_moll and @Florian_Scheuer: optimal taxes target realized net trades plus cash flows—not wealth or unrealized gains—while avoiding lock-in, whatever moves asset prices. econometricsociety.org/publi…
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