
@i_averi
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America First paleocon. USAF Veteran.
California, USA
Joined June 2013
- Tweets53.1K
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I Aver🌲 retweeted
People are joking around, but don’t get confused:
If you are serious about the long term survival of White people there is nothing you can do in your personal life that is more detrimental to that cause than marrying + having children with a non-white women.
There is no excuse.
I Aver🌲 retweeted
This is Trust & Safety 2.0.
The last time we had media-generated panics like this (with Russiagate and Covid), social media companies created “trust & safety” teams to censor conservative and dissident voices. Those hires worked with left-wing NGOs like the SPLC to police public discourse and do an end-run around the First Amendment. It almost worked, until Elon bought Twitter and exposed the whole game in the Twitter Files.
This time the plan is to embed unfireable EA minders inside every AI company as the new trust-and-safety layer. The censorship and control will be far more comprehensive, but also more subtle. Anytime they don’t get what they want, this unaccountable NGO layer (with the veneer of “trust the experts” pseudoscience) will shriek to the press that the AI company is risking humanity, and they will be celebrated as “whistleblowers.”
These groups haven’t earned our trust, and their agenda is not our safety.
aievaluatorforum.org/initiat…
I Aver🌲 retweeted
I have conducted an audit of Anthropic's finances.
What I have found is so shocking that I am calling for a Congressional investigation.
Anthropic is not just seeking regulatory capture.
It has built a regulatory capture machine that cannot be turned off.
Structural financial incentives make it impossible for Anthropic -- I call it the Anthropic Network -- to turn off its own AI doom cycle.
It starts with METR.
Dario Amodei proposes "third-party evaluators" to assess the risk of Anthropic's models.
He proposes METR for this purpose.
But METR is financially dependent on the Anthropic's success -- specifically, on the explosive growth of more than $7 billion dollars in Anthropic stock.
Dustin Moskovitz invested this stock into Good Ventures Foundation, where it represents the majority of that organization's portfolio.
And GVF is the overwhelming funder of the entire Anthropic Network ecosystem.
This stock was worth $500 million early last year.
It is worth more than $7.7 billion just ~16 months later.
METR -- and all of those building a career its parent organizations -- cannot afford to disrupt that growth.
Because if Anthropic goes under, many of the organizations that fund METR go under as well.
But if Anthropic succeeds, METR and its parent organizations become more richly financed to regulate AI -- something those at METR want very much.
The "third-party evaluator" is not "third-party" at all.
The evaluator is on Anthropic's payroll.
If this were the end of it, that's bad.
But that isn't all.
The same organizations that fund METR also fund the many organizations, such as the Tarbell Center, that promote AI Doom.
The Tarbell Center publishes AI Doom articles in The Verge, Science, LA Times, The Dispatch, TIME, and others.
They are selling the problem, and then selling the solution to the problem -- from the same money pile: Anthropic's.
All of these organizations are financially dependent on the same exploding $7 billion money pile.
As Anthropic grows more and more powerful, its AI Doom Machine grows better and better financed -- louder and louder.
Meanwhile, the regulatory regime seeded in METR grows larger to solve the increasingly loud -- now hysterical -- problem of AI Doom that the Anthropic Network itself created.
From this standpoint, as Anthropic becomes more powerful, AI might be getting scarier, sure -- but the positive feedback loop also becomes more deafening -- independent of objective facts.
This itself is an objective fact.
The deafening AI Doom is part of an business model, that, as it expands, so too does the AI Doom messaging -- there is simply more money to do it.
But the problem also goes in the other direction:
If Anthropic dies, the Regulatory Regime and the AI Doom Machine are crippled or die.
Neither METR nor Tarbell nor the other organizations in the Anthropic Network can allow that to happen.
Hence, neither METR or the AI Doom Machine can be trusted to provide independent assessments of Anthropic's models or AI more broadly.
They simply are not organizations independent of Anthropic.
And Anthropic cannot detach itself from METR or Tarbell or countless other safety orgs (not shown here), either, because they drive hype for the models and the possibility of eventual regulatory capture, and Anthropic will not give that up willingly.
What's more, the people at all of these organizations are all the same ecosystem, the same community. They just shuffle between organizations.
The Anthropic Network is therefore, so long as it is successful, locked into a self-amplifying feedback loop inside an ideological monoculture.
And that feedback loop is winning.
That's what Jacob Coxon is.
China is keeping messaging tight. That is why optimism for AI is so high in China.
America has Anthropic: a massive company pushing anti-AI propaganda at a state level.
Anthropic will either create hysteria until American AI slows down and China wins, or it will create fractures throughout American society with severe political consequences.
Ironically, because of the structural financial incentives underpinning the Anthropic Network, it has become the same kind of self-amplifying virus that it fantasizes AI to become in the future -- while hiding its tracks just as carefully.
It is the mirror of the same AI virus that it hypothesizes to consume America.
Anthropic's business model, models itself after the very thing it claims to fear.
Except Anthropic's ideology infects humans, not computers.
Congress must investigate.
Evidence and Github in next post.
Then some supplementary figures.
“Indian publication The Federal reports that the three women were all Malayali, an ethnic group from Kerala in southern India.”
A 32-year-old Milpitas woman is accused of running down and killing her friend with her car on Friday in a bizarre incident that happened just before a third woman, also a friend, was found fatally stabbed. buff.ly/RBgOTcy
JD Vance in a secret meeting with the RJC.
ANALYSIS | The Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual leadership summit kicked off in the blazing heat of Las Vegas on Sunday, with a series of speeches by pro-Israel House members and Senate candidates.
But the most anticipated remarks of the day will be one the public won’t be able to see, a closed-door appearance by Vice President JD Vance at a Monday night VIP gala.
By @marcrod97
ji.news/5gqkg
I Aver🌲 retweeted
It has been written in the open-source code for weeks. If you believe the X will get better because Nikita Bier is gone, you're in for a massive disappointment. The human era of social media engineering is dead. It's an un-auditable AI neural network now. Here's the proof.
I Aver🌲 retweeted
Don’t fall for the fake Fox/GOP outrage. Two weeks ago the House passed a bill that greenlighted the transfer of Spanish territory to Morocco. Every Republican except me voted for it, but now THEY are acting shocked at the invasion.
congress.gov/119/bills/hr859…
congress.gov/119/bills/hr949…
Josh Hammer’s last six videos have 1,495 views, total.🤣
On The @josh_hammer Show: Josh opens the show by discussing the departure of the Cracker Barrel CEO following a controversial tenure that many believe strayed from the company's iconic brand. | OPINION
I Aver🌲 retweeted
End H-1B and OPT abuse. Put American workers first.
H-1B and OPT have become a pipeline that replaces American graduates.
It’s time to fix our immigration system and put American workers first.
I Aver🌲 retweeted
Here is the TPS racket:
Declare an emergency.
Grant “temporary” status.
Wait for the emergency to pass.
Extend the status anyway.
Repeat until temporary becomes permanent.
Democrats built a one-way ratchet for mass immigration.
I Aver🌲 retweeted
The House will soon take 2 votes that will compromise our sovereignty by merging our military technology & supply chain with Israel‘s.
❌TODAY’s vote on H Res 1438 brings the NDAA to the floor WITHOUT a vote on striking section 219.
❌TOMORROW’s vote is to pass the NDAA.
I Aver🌲 retweeted
The House is scheduled to vote this week on a National Defense Authorization that would integrate our military tech & supply chains with Israel’s.
Today, the Rules Committee will decide whether my amendment to strip section 219 will get a vote.
RT to support the Massie amdt.!
I Aver🌲 retweeted
1/4
For our latest @fsuigc data brief, I assembled every publicly available survey I could identify (1981–2026) measuring Americans’ pride, patriotism, and national attachment.
Combining 23 harmonized survey series spanning nearly 200 survey measurements using James Stimson’s dyadic-ratios algorithm, I constructed a long-run Pride & Patriotism Index (PPI).
The resulting index explains roughly 70% of the common variation across the underlying survey series.
The result:
More war with Iran and Russia.
Golden Age!
Take an early look at the front page of The Wall Street Journal. on.wsj.com/4wyrW0H
I Aver🌲 retweeted
Israeli accused of stealing dead patients’ identities in $27 million Medicare hospice scam
Oren David Shachar, an Israeli citizen in Los Angeles, allegedly ran four hospice firms that billed Medicare for patients who were not termi...
ynetnews.com/article/skatdyt…
I Aver🌲 retweeted
The reported MOU to reopen Hormuz, highly favorable to Iran, is the least bad outcome for the US after Trump's disastrous decision for war -- and it illustrates how big a mistake the war was.
On net, the war hurt the U.S. in two major ways.
1.) The U.S. bargaining position with Iran is now worse off, because militarily, the U.S. underperformed and Iran overperformed compared to Trump's prewar expectations (which in my view were always mistaken).
That itself is tied to two factors:
A. Massive U.S. airpower did not succeed in quickly toppling the Iranian regime, which spoiled the president's theory of victory circa day 3 of the war. Once the conflict bogged down into a war of attrition, Iran had the upper hand, because of its superior resolve.
For Iran, the war is about survival, while for the U.S., it's an "excursion." This is the essence of asymmetric conflict and why militarily powerful countries often lose wars against weaker nations more willing to absorb the costs of fighting.
The fact that the balance of resolve favored Iran was knowable in advance -- and *many* analysts argued this prewar.
B. Iran tangibly demonstrated its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz by suppressing nearly all traffic simply through the threat of its missiles and drones. Before the war, its leverage was theoretical and latent. Now, it has been fully realized and cannot be undone, because it rests on geography and prevailing military technology -- i.e. cheap and plentiful missiles and drones.
Before, the U.S. thought it could threaten and ultimately fight a quick regime change war to reset Iran's negotiating position or perhaps induce Iran's full capitulation, without costs to the oil market. The conduct of the war proves that was a fantasy.
Iran's superior bargaining position is concretely reflected in the MOU. Iran gets immediate oil sanctions waivers and unfrozen assets ($3 billion of which might have already been transferred by the UAE according to reports) -- just to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear negotiations. Those are big chits the U.S. has handed in, already, to get roughly back to the prewar status quo.
2.) The war also hurt the U.S. because it was costly in U.S. lives, treasure and materiel.
- 13 U.S. soldiers died and at least 400 have been wounded (likely the injury count is higher but the Pentagon has been cagey about providing updated numbers).
- High-end U.S. munitions have been dangerously depleted, hurting U.S. readiness across all theaters, perhaps for years
- Budgetary costs of the war could exceed $1 trillion accounting for veteran's health claims and borrowing costs, according to Linda Bilmes at Harvard
- Even if oil resumes prewar flows immediately (it won't), the baked in economic damage is substantial. U.S. inflation in May, for example, reached 4.2% thanks to elevated oil prices.
- Global oil inventories have been dangerously depleted, making the whole system more vulnerable to any disruptions going forward.
And even still ... it's not clear if the MOU will go through, as Israel continues to occupy and attack Lebanon. So even this level of progress is quite fragile.
Trump never should have launched this reckless war -- and it's incumbent on all of us to learn the right lessons from it, namely that what's achievable through U.S. military power is inherently limited, and U.S. meddling in the Middle East tends to worsen outcomes, not improve them.
Senator Tom Cotton, as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has advanced a provision in the FY2027 Intelligence Authorization Act that would require the President of the United States to expand and enhance intelligence sharing with the Government of Israel across a broad list of subjects.
The provision would also bar the President from suspending or materially limiting that intelligence sharing except on the basis of a specific and identifiable national security concern determined by the President.
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