Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss) header
Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss) profile picture

Co-Director of @AIdisclosures Project Economist affiliated with @IIPP_UCL, @go2uj, and @MSFTResearch

Brooklyn, New York
Joined June 2020
Photo by Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss)Photo by Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss)Photo by Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss)Photo by Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss)Photo by Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss)Photo by Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss)Photo by Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss)Photo by Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss)Photo by Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss)Photo by Ilan Strauss (@IlanStrauss)
How do dominant platforms use their #algorithms to shape markets & extract #rents from suppliers & users? With applications to emerging #AI systems, here are key findings from 3 new papers & 2 years of research with @timoreilly, @MazzucatoM (PI), & @RufusRock2 at @IIPP_UCL 🧵1/
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Ilan Strauss retweeted
18 of the 20 best open models today are Mixture-of-Experts. Dense is basically over. And yet the know-how to train a good MoE still lives mostly in the heads of a handful of teams. So we spent 800k GPU hours running the experiments ourselves and wrote everything down. Super happy to finally release "The Ultimate MoE Training Handbook", free and open, organized around the questions training teams hit: - how many experts, how big, shared or not? - why is half my step spent in all-to-all, and how do I hide it? - why is my run 25x slower with no error in the logs? - softmax, sigmoid or sqrt(softplus) router, and why keep it in fp32? - aux loss or DeepSeek's loss-free bias? - upcycle a dense checkpoint or train from scratch? - can I serve with fewer experts per token than I trained with? ⚠️ Warning: it's long (~70k words, budget a few days, sorry) but with 55 interactive figures, code you can run and numbers from our own runs. Read it here: huggingface.co/spaces/huggin…
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Quite a useful graph...
Why Texas really matters. It's set to overtake Virginia as the dominant states for data center. And much of the projects still in early stage (which means, they can be stopped). h/t Derrick Flakoll (BNEF). blinks.bloomberg.com/news/st…
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Wow. From Raymond James. Trump approval mapped onto average gas prices.
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My Anthropic IPO valuation got some pushback, which is what it was designed to do. I used that pushback to list out what I believe are the biggest and most fragile assumptions in my story, and examined what can go wrong. bit.ly/4AaMy0P
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This is pretty crazy... nytimes.com/2026/11/03/us/go… Chromebooks in schools seems to have been an unmitigated disaster for educational outcomes -- a gateway drug to YouTube for teens It's tragic that this data is not available so that a proper econometric estimation cannot be done
JUST IN: Google announces schools that completely ban AI will also lose access to Google Search.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Google have just added tighter controls: “controls for Gemini, Gemini Notebook, Gemini in Classroom, and Google Search - access to these products will be entirely off for K-12 student accounts until school administrators explicitly turn them on.” blog.google/products-and-p…
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1/ What do airlines and oil companies tell us about Anthropic's economics? In a new @TechPolicyPress piece, I argue with @timoreilly that Anthropic's IPO filing highlights two major disclosure gaps the SEC can & should address...🧵
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5/ We propose standardized disclosures of input/output tokens, revenue and cost per token, and compute utilization. We also call for greater transparency around major cloud contracts and financial flows between AI labs and their investors, suppliers and distributors.
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Ilan Strauss retweeted
There are many thoughtful critiques of this line of work. This is not one of them. Sad to see @margrev engage in this. Only upside is that the post clearly illustrates the need to have humans in the loop in social science...at least for now :)
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Our 2024 paper, led by sruly rosenblat with @timoreilly and me, is out @AIdisclosures We tested GPT-4o, GPT-4o Mini and GPT-3.5 Turbo for evidence of training on paywalled O’Reilly books. GPT-4o: AUROC 0.82 Participatory AI markets need attribution: doi.org/10.1007/s43681-026-0…
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This AI hit job adds nothing to this collective work. It treats methodological choices we discuss at length in our own work as “major flaws”. It highlights assumptions discussed in the literature and labels them “errors”. It elevates trivial points as somehow crucial. And it peppers all of this with a torrent of meaningless slop. There is no intelligence in this, only malice. All the experts who have commented on your hit job have found it to be worthless.
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Human-pilled? @timoreilly on creating markets for AI in light of the Bitter Lesson: asimovaddendum.substack.com/… ai-disclosures.org/missing-m…
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Ilan Strauss retweeted
Rumors that chili maker Lao Gan Ma laid off 500+ workers due to AI have gone viral in China. Beneath Beijing’s positive messaging, many ordinary Chinese people are worried about AI and jobs. Lao Gan Ma recently touted a new AI-powered chili inspection system that uses high-speed industrial cameras that significantly outperform manual inspection. A stat about the company using this AI system to reduce human inspectors from 600 to 48 went viral on Chinese social media. The iconic, family-run company pushed back. But if you look at the data, the company has reduced headcount from 2,912 to 740 in the past few years while earning record revenues. Original story: m.jiemian.com/article/152425…
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Ilan Strauss retweeted
Memory is becoming a core part of agent harnesses/products (e.g. Instinct, @Muse, @cognition Devin, @PrimeIntellect Prime Agent, @NousResearch Hermes, @openclaw, @LangChain Deep Agents, @Letta_AI) -- yet despite every agent claiming to "continually learn", there's no benchmark to actually measure that capability. A big problem is that memory benchmarks today only measure recall (e.g. simple Q/A about past events). They don't measure if/how agents actually learn from experience to get better at work. At the same time, benchmarks for coding/knowledge work consist of many isolated, unrelated tasks - so they also don't allow for measuring cross-task learning. The context needed for a task is fully specified up-front (very unrealistic). In practice, both agents and humans work through sequences of many *related* tasks. Experience from past work provides context and learnings that apply to future work. This is why if you're a manager, you have to provide a lot more context when assigning tasks to a brand new employee or external contractor. Meanwhile, a great senior employee might not need any instructions at all. With FrontierMemory, we adapt existing benchmark tasks for coding and knowledge work so that instead of all the necessary context being provided up-front and within the task, it has to be learned from past experience. This allows us to compare how well different models and harnesses learn over time.
Introducing FrontierMemory: a new way to evaluate agent memory through downstream task performance. While existing memory benchmarks focus on recall (saturated via agentic search), FrontierMemory focuses on how agents learn from experience.
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Ilan Strauss retweeted
muse is a credit card company. intelligence will be free...payment processing fees are forever.
M2020. Top Recaps - Part 1. Stripe is not only the payment engine for Muse, they are actually core to Meta's economics. The 300bps linked card is providing meta with ~100bps of revenue. Card networks are enabling the economics of Agentic. This works beyond Stripe merchants, and beyond Link wallets. The linked card creates alignment with Meta and Stripe. While Stripe may be capable of creating an alternative payment network, they can't create the economics (merchant acceptance of a 300bps card for stripe and non-stripe merchants). Big retailers are set to block this card (and "wallet") due to price, most of the large merchants require customer auth with merchant. The merchant friendly solution to Muse and agent integration is form @LoginID_io. A fantastic merchant friendly integration to their Auth. Expect a presentation w/ MRC.
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hello platform stickyness? 📈
Day 16/ You can now cache for 12h in the API and for logged in users across Codex & Work we keep cache forever and you don’t have any penalty for coming back to an old conversation or resuming after a few hours and are now guaranteed to hit the cache.
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I would agree on the method point: methodological individualism, the classical dichotomy, equilibrium behavior of the system, inability to compare utilities, are all core differences between the neoclassical method and all other schools of economic thought.
The fatal challenge to heterodox economics is that there isn't actually orthodox economics. Just take a few recent Nobels: behavioral, information failure, institutions, bubbles, financial fragility, labor monopsony (sort of), Schumpeterian creative destruction, etc. Not to mention RCTs which are emblematic of how much economic research is empirical and only lightly if at all structural. The real difference is methods. Heterodox economics is an avowedly political project not a social scientific effort to better understand the world. And I have nothing against political projects just shouldn't confuse the two.
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