Analysis of and commentary on South African politics. Edited by: @GvanOnselen
South Africa
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Ok, my elections wall website is up and running, at least the framework for it. I think it will only work properly on laptops, sorry. Here is how it works:
It comprises 6 walls, in tabs along the top. These are my subjective choices. This is not an attempt to project or see who is winning metros, they are instead what I consider 6 critical indicators for understanding this election. Those walls are:
1. The ANC Metro Wall: It comprises all ANC urban strongholds. Each brick in the wall is a metro VD the ANC has held in every LGE since 2000. There are 1768 bricks in this wall.
2. The DA Metro Wall: Same logic as above, except for the DA. There are 980 bricks (VDs) in this wall.
3. The ANC's Rural Wall: These are the ANC's rural strongholds, rural VDs it has won in every LGE since 2000. There are 4464 bricks in this wall.
4. The DA Urban Wall: These are the DA's urban strongholds, it has won in every LGE since 2000 (across the whole country, not just metros). There are 1388 bricks in this wall.
5. The Urban Black Voters Wall: This is all VDs across all metros, comprising a population of 95%-100% black voters. There are 2931 bricks in this wall.
6. The All Metros Wall: This wall will comprise 5012 bricks, every VD in the metros. It will be built as the results come in.
Click on any brick to see its history.
All walls are structured sequentially, strongest bricks at bottom, weakest at top.
As results come in, the walls will change. For the metro walls, if the ANC or DA loses a stronghold, that brick will vanish. If they win, the brick will change shade to the party's new percentage.
This also applies to the urban and rural walls.
The black voters wall and the all metros wall show individual parties, and any brick will change or be filled in by which ever party wins it.
But it is probably best to have a look around the website and familiarise yourself with it. It has a PNG screenshot updates options, so every wall can be shared at any stage.
2026electionwalls.netlify.ap…
Using a demographically weighted voters roll, there are 17,708 VDs with a black population of 90%-100% across SA. Out of those, 5,922 have reported. 2,476,618 PR votes have been cast in those VDs, at an average turnout rate of 49.15%.
This is how the big parties have fared so far, out of those 5,922:
1. ANC (1,094,889 votes): 44.21%
2. MK (293,450) 11.85%
3. DA (200,357): 8.09%
4. EFF (189,857): 7.67%
5. IFP (150,696): 6.08%
6. ASA (117,705): 4.75%
7. SACP (92,236): 3.72%
8. UDM (41,907): 1.69%
9. FF+ (15,630): 0.63%
10. PA (9,865): 0.40%
Sorry to go on about the ANC's rural wall, but there is another important point to be made here, in terms of macro analysis.
The trajectory of many liberation parties is to first lose their urban support, but retain enough rural support to cling onto power. This is what happened with Zanu-PF, for example.
Many "long" analysts have already made this assumption about South Africa: the ANC will command the rural poor, the opposition the urban economy. But this election cracks that analysis too, and this wall in particular.
If it carries on at this rate, the ANC will lose around 1000 rural VDs it has never once lost before.
The ANC's rural strongholds, the fundamental pillar of its support has fractured, and as Humpty Dumpty found out, that egg is very hard to put back together again.
ANC rural wall
1415/4464 VDs reported.
Total increased for ANC: 244 (5.5%)
Total decreased for ANC: 780 (17.5%)
Total Lost: 332 (holes) (7.4%)
2021 ANC Average: 73.43%
2026 ANC Average: 55.33%
ANC rural wall
1345/4464 VDs reported.
Total increased for ANC: 232
Total decreased for ANC: 780 (lighter bricks)
Total Lost: 332 (holes)
2021 ANC Average: 73.43%
2026 ANC Average: 55.20%
Some coalition thoughts. ASA doing exceptionally well in TSH, less so in JHB. The lesson ASA will take for this, is that the mayoralty delivers brand recognition and the formula worked. It would be correct too. But it will understand as well, that, the JHB mayoralty will be key to future political growth in that metro, and if the DA gets it, it is likely to hurt the ASA over the next five years. In turn, it is going to be highly reluctant to relinquish the mayoralty in TSH for the same reason. Long story short, I think these results are going to strengthen the chances that ASA, in both JHB and TSH, is unlikely to give the DA the time of day in those two metros.
So the ANC's metro wall (metro VDs it has won in every LGE) is only slightly better than its rural wall, still dire, but is worth looking at in more detail.
The bricks are ordered in terms of ANC strength in 2021. So the strongest bricks are the bottom row. It has lost two bricks in that row. I have highlighted the one to the bottom left - in Buffalo City: VD 10820247.
Here is the ANC's history there:
2000: 94.86%
2006: 94.35%
2011: 74.83%
2016: 88.34%
2021: 94.51%
Then comes 2026: SACP: 44.2%, ATM: 27.2%, ANC: 24.1%.
Total and utter collapse. Now, the SACP is from the ANC's universe, so should be taken with a pinch of salt, but to go from 94.5% to 24.1% is a result of spectacular proportions.
This is a bit clumsy, as my updates while everything got up and running were a bit sporadic, but brief Timelapse of ANC rural wall to date.
Ok, let me explain some of these walls, because what is happening is profound. Let's take the ANC's rural wall.
The ANC's greatest strength is its rural strongholds. This wall comprises 4464 rural VDs that the ANC has won in every single LGE - 2000, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021. They are the absolute pillar of ANC support.
And they are getting decimated.
They were chosen as of analytical value because, while the ANC has declined in previous elections, its strongholds have always held. The theory was, if they cracked, the ANC's core support base has cracked, and that represents a fundamental shift in SA politics.
Well, they have cracked, they are cracking, left right and centre. Holes everywhere. Where it sin't losing these VDs, it is losing support in them. It is a simple picture but it represents something very profound.
DA urban Wall
156/1388 VDs reported.
Total increased for DA: 63
Total decreased for DA: 90 (lighter bricks)
Total Lost: 3 (holes)
2021 DA Average: 67.76%
2026 DA Average: 67.22%
DA Metro Wall
76/980 VDs reported.
Total increased for DA: 21
Total decreased for DA: 54 (lighter bricks)
Total Lost: 1 (holes)
2021 DA Average: 68.35%
2026 DA Average: 67.80%
ANC Metro Wall
80/1764 VDs reported.
Total increased for ANC: 4
Total decreased for ANC: 53 (lighter bricks)
Total Lost: 23 (holes)
2021 ANC Average: 63.55%
2026 ANC Average: 45.94%
Lot of updates. Starting with ANC rural wall.
740/4464 VDs reported.
Total increased for ANC: 134
Total decreased for ANC: 450 (lighter bricks)
Total Lost: 156 (holes)
2021 ANC Average: 73.43%
2026 ANC Average: 55.03%
ANC rural wall continues to take a hammering.
406/4464 VDs reported.
Total increased for ANC: 62
Total decreased for ANC: 232 (lighter bricks)
Total Lost: 90 (holes)
This is the Metro Black Voters Wall. All metro VDs with a black population of 95% - 100%, so a good read of party support among black metro voters.
Here is a top line summary of main parties:
46 of 2931 VDs reported
ANC 31 VDs (averaging 49.4%, down from 61.2% in 2021)
DA 0 VDs (ave 8.1%, up from 4%)
EFF 1 VD (ave 6.9%, down from 16.5%)
ASA 5 VDs (ave 5.5%, down from 7.0%)
First few bricks up for the DA's metro wall (the DA's 5 LGE strong holds, never lost them). Bit worrying for the DA, 7 of the 8 bricks reported are declines, and I can tell you they are all in CT, and most in Mitchells Plain area. Also, it's the PA hurting them there. Remember, if colour changes lighter it means party still won that VD, but its percentage dropped.
