JDH

Market Crash Indicator 30y:2y (August Final Print): This indicator, which measures the spread between the 30y & 2yr treasuries, has called the biggest crashes of the last 30 years every time it fired off...And it just fired off this afternoon...The final August monthly print for the 30y:2y ratio just inked at 49.65, or 50 in round terms for the purposes of this indicator...But most importantly, this just happens to coincide with SPX hitting a fresh new secular ATH this week. It doesn't necessarily mean a crash on Tuesday, but the crash window has opened wide and all it takes is some "catalyst" which is irrelevant because it's already baked into the pie, and could come at any moment. So if you're a history buff, then this could be seen as the bell at the top as you can see this level sparked crashes in 1990, 2000, 2007, and 2020 - And if history isn't your jam, well you could very well be right (spoiler: probably not), indicators work until they don't, and this ratio isn't a mystery to anyone of import in the market and they may have taken steps to mitigate (spoiler: they didn't). But what we can all agree upon is the fact that nothing in life is guaranteed, aside from indigestion from drawdown...So my best to all, wherever your portfolio sits. From this addled mind, methinks the bulls are likely picking up pennies in front of a steamroller...but then again, don't take this as advice, I eat crayons.