Sometimes numbers. Otherwise, thoughts & prayers.
Los Angeles, CA | DCA | BNA
Joined February 2014
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Thought of the Day: Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity.
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
Fwiw, Michigan and Minnesota broke the pattern. Both moved towards Dems (by 7 and 6pp -- in MI we only have precinct results from 24 counties). But more Harris voters switched to the GOP than Trump voters to Dems. This means that all the gain came from turnout.
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
This is about where the Blue Rose estimate lands. NORC data implies ~55% turnout / ~30% switching / ~15% new votes. Differences aside, all point to turnout differential as top accelerant of blue tsunami.
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
Black voter share of the electorate per NYT:
Alabama
2024: 22%
2026: 26% (+4)
Mississippi
2024: 30%
2026: 33% (+3)
South Carolina
2024: 21%
2026: 24% (+3)
Louisiana
2024: 27%
2026: 30% (+3)
Georgia
2024: 29%
2026: 32% (+3)
Versus no change in Michigan, Illinois or New York.
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
Georgia just posted its vote history, and as race is self-reported on the file we now have our first stats on race & turnout. Black (1.37m), Latino (198k), and AAPI (149k) turnout was a midterm record. White turnout down 100k voters vs 2022, as 200k more Black voters turned out.
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
There will be many ways to analyze tonight's super-shellacking. Here's changes in the Latino vote vs. 2024, from NORC's Civic Health & Elections Project (CHEP). Much more to come.
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
The "double haters" of this election may be the voters who disapprove of Trump but lack a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
The new NYT graphics on early votes actually does a great job showing why tracking this stuff is STUPID.
For example, in 2022, the Iowa EVs were D+16, but final electorate was R+8. In 2024, the EVs were R+1, and the final electorate was R+10. BOTH resulted in R+12/13.
POINTLESS
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
The inability of the left to distinguish between an imperfect ally and an enemy is the height of privilege and will be our downfall
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
I got my start in national politics in the most progressive wing of the Democratic party apparatus and after being immersed in the world for 6 months I was sure of one thing: sometimes my progressive friends were worse thang conservative friends 😒
That still rings true today.
Maybe it’s because how I came up, but I don’t need to disrespect someone to disagree with them. Also - idc who you are, there is no hall pass for racism. Respect is due.
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
Mina Kimes pointed it out, but this whole fake WR scam really exposes how far Google has fallen. The AI search result concluded that he is a legitimate 49ers player, citing his social media accounts as proof. Search engines are more exposed to manipulation than ever before
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
it is very frustrating how many California education leaders I've seen try to throw shade on the remarkable progress Mississippi has made rather than take accountability for their own failures. We have so many more resources and yet are doing so much worse for our kids
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
“The collapse of democracy has less direct impact on my personal life than HR training norms” is actually a point people should take seriously.
There’s a reason why expensive gasoline has done more damage to Trump than pardoning everyone for 1/6.
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
You don’t give a card for intentionally pull Pulisic down before the half, but give a red card for an accidental stop on an ankle?
Absolute dog trash
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
There's just something special about the Block 〽️!
Congrats, @umichbball!
J Isaiah Bailey retweeted
I've come to the realization that most people think that billionaires actually have a billion dollars in their checking account.
