Associate @gvagrad Three books on Jihad in Egypt, the politicisation of Syrian Jihadis, and HTS in Syria
Geneva, Switzerland
Joined August 2016
- Tweets2.5K
- Following623
- Followers5.7K
- Likes2.9K
Pinned Tweet
Five years in the making, based on dozens of travel to Idlib under HTS control, multiple interviews with Ahmad al-Sharaa, his closest associates, other factions, ministers, dissidents, opponents, civil society, diplomats, and more hurstpublishers.com/book/tra…
Jerome Drevon retweeted
Je suis dev et je viens de lire l'amendement sur la taxe au gigaoctet voté aujourd'hui
Et j'ai une question :
Comment on mesure ?
5,5 centimes par Go envoyé aux internautes français, payés par l'émetteur. Donc ce sont les FAI qui devront remonter les volumes à la DGFiP
Sauf qu'un FAI voit pas "Netflix" ou "Google", il voit du trafic chiffré qui sort c’est tout
Des milliers de boîtes derrière les mêmes IP. Un même flux peut venir d'un cache installé chez l'opérateur lui-même etc
Donc qui paie quand un site français hébergé chez Cloudflare envoie 1 To ?? cloudflare ? le site ? l'hébergeur ???
ils annoncent 10 milliards par an là-dessus
Donc en gros :
1️⃣ Un foyer moyen consomme 500 Go par mois. Ça fait 28€ de taxe. Chaque mois
2️⃣ une saison de série en 4K (10 épisodes) : 3,85€
3️⃣ une maj de jeu de 50 Go : 2,75€
4️⃣ un modèle IA open source de 70 milliards de paramètres (140 Go) : 7,70€
C’est payé par les plateformes sur le papier mais dans ton abonnement en vrai
11 députés ont décidé de taxer la bande passante d'un pays entier en pleine course à l'IA. On marche vraiment sur la tête
Jerome Drevon retweeted
This report draws on the excellent recent work of @jeromedrev (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…), my own conversations with Defense Ministry members over the past year, and extensive open source and closed source research on the structure of the new corps.
Jerome Drevon retweeted
What other designated groups can draw from HTS’s trajectory is not that ‘moderation’ pays, but that military victory does. if the 1267 sanctions regime cannot reward compliance, it risks teaching listed actors that status change is achieved through altered realities on the ground
Jerome Drevon retweeted
After the 2025 delisting of Ahmad al-Sharaa and the 2026 delisting of HTS, what can we learn about international counterterrorism sanctions? Do they work? Their paradox is that they can encourage armed groups to change their behaviour, but offer few credible ways to recognise (1)
What other designated groups can draw from HTS’s trajectory is not that ‘moderation’ pays, but that military victory does. if the 1267 sanctions regime cannot reward compliance, it risks teaching listed actors that status change is achieved through altered realities on the ground
After the 2025 delisting of Ahmad al-Sharaa and the 2026 delisting of HTS, what can we learn about international counterterrorism sanctions? Do they work? Their paradox is that they can encourage armed groups to change their behaviour, but offer few credible ways to recognise (1)
The 1267 sanction regime especially depoliticise jihadis and offer their few ways out of global jihad, with major consequences on other conflicts such as in the Sahel (3)
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
some free prints are available there: tandfonline.com/eprint/DKYEQ…
or there: drive.google.com/file/d/150X…
Jerome Drevon retweeted
3. Then the figures:
@Hegghammer, The Caravan (Azzam, the mobiliser)
@JoasWagemakers, A Quietist Jihadi (Maqdisi, the jurist)
@brynjarlia, Architect of Global Jihad (al-Suri, the strategist)
Haenni & @jeromedrev, Transformed by the People (HTS, after the state)
Jerome Drevon retweeted
1/🧵 Ces dernières années, j'ai passé beaucoup de temps dans les lycées et en premier lieu dans les lycées professionnels. J'ai voulu documenter cette voie, dont on sait qu'elle est la dernière roue du carrosse d'un système éducatif à la dérive et profondément inégalitaire.
Jerome Drevon retweeted
Great paper
New paper: how did al-Sharaa Syria build a national army out of dozens of rebel factions without a power-sharing deal? Short answer: by opposing political negotiations and make it something administrative. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… (thread) (1)
Jerome Drevon retweeted
Encore un incroyable travail à venir de Jerome Devron.
New paper: how did al-Sharaa Syria build a national army out of dozens of rebel factions without a power-sharing deal? Short answer: by opposing political negotiations and make it something administrative. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… (thread) (1)
Jerome Drevon retweeted
📌 Another must-read piece by Jerome.
New paper: how did al-Sharaa Syria build a national army out of dozens of rebel factions without a power-sharing deal? Short answer: by opposing political negotiations and make it something administrative. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… (thread) (1)
Jerome Drevon retweeted
New paper: how did al-Sharaa Syria build a national army out of dozens of rebel factions without a power-sharing deal? Short answer: by opposing political negotiations and make it something administrative. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… (thread) (1)
New paper: how did al-Sharaa Syria build a national army out of dozens of rebel factions without a power-sharing deal? Short answer: by opposing political negotiations and make it something administrative. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… (thread) (1)
The outcomes vary a lot. Weak groups dissolved. The SNA is being absorbed slowly. Cohesive units were contained. Where communities had a real political base (Sweida, the northeast) the method stalled or broke down. (5)
Based on 60+ interviews in Syria in 2025 and a division-level order of battle. Draft here, feedback welcome papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…