Public equities/options, card product @mercury. Eternal superalloy cubes @ https://nitter.cf/t.co/fz34u7r194.
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Joined April 2014
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So the $NRIX $SNY news clearly shows that Sanofi/Garijo is continuing to make aggressive moves (and driving savings)... so who are they gonna buy?
Saw some takes on them buying $KYMR here, but they do also have a STAT6 inhibitor through Recludix? 🧵:
This is more conspiracy theory territory but ChatGPT found this job posting:
jobs.sanofi.com/en/job/cambr…
"Sanofi's Immunology Franchise is preparing to transform the treatment landscape for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) with duvakitug, one of Sanofi's high-priority new assets."
😋
Will enter for round 3 below 1.3M, trying not to jump the gun as I have the past two times (both at 1.4-45M)
$SKHY $000660.ks
lol this was lucky $SKHY $000660.ks
NP, but incredible alpha here in biotech. Could have seen these $IOVA results at 7:20am and shorted at 7:30 for a 25% gain in an hour.
Listen, we all *want* $IOVA to help lung cancer patients, but these updated data are just bad. Very bad. You could tell as soon as there was no mDOR in the press release (the last PR *did* disclose mDOR - why are they hiding it now?). The slides confirm that the new responses are VERY short. Not good at all.
Sure, the ORR went down a little bit, but only by 1%. It is the lack of any durability in the new cut of patients that is the huge problem. The first cut had 4 patients still responding >1 year out - several of them 2-3 years out! Not bad back then - but this new cut has no responders even *close* to that degree of durability.
So far, of these new patients, it looks like 1 might have made it past 1 year but has already progressed since then. There are WAY more early progressors in this new cut by my read of the data. Of the new confirmed responses, only 2 appear to be ongoing at ~4 and ~6 months. 4 other responders appear to have all progressed in the ~4-8 month range. VERY poor durability. This looks like 2x as many relapsers in that 4-8 month range compared to the first dataset *with* fewer responders in the new cut overall...
There were also 0 new CRs in the new cut. CR rate now <3%.
The reason this new trend of very short durability is especially alarming for $IOVA is that this new cut of data uses the less intense LD chemo regimen that the FDA made them use following a death and trial hold earlier on in this study.
It looks like the less intense LD they are having to use is leading to markedly worse durability. If you look at mDOR of *just* the new, reduced intensity LD, mDOR is looking like, what? Maybe 6-8ish months? And the overall population certainly looks like it will be <1 year mDOR...the initial datacut was >2 years! Huge drop off looks likely.
Again, bummer. We obviously want lung cancer patients to do well. But facts are facts and to me this just doesn't look encouraging relative to what $IOVA had presented before. I know the cult trolls will be after me for pointing out the crash in durability, but whatever. Your cult leader biotechscammer is saying these are the best data ever, like he has done nonstop for 5 years straight. Let's see what reality has to say about that, and how that might inform who these cultists listen to someday.
Answer was yup. Closed $SKHY $000660.ks again. Just skittish with the memory trade.
Does Belen Garijo got that dog in her? $ABVX
ft.com/content/e481233f-77bc…
If no one else steps up to bid $ABVX higher than her max bid of €15B, could see her taking the shot.
Launch obe, finish the Crohn’s trial, setup a bunch of combos, ride off into the sunset as the savior of Sanofi and curer of IBD?
Reminds me of this tweet by @Biohazard3737. She would be remembered for obe, and being end of career, I bet she cares about that.
Also funnily enough she certainly remembers Winrevair specifically from her vantage point as Merck KGaA CEO seeing the launch across the pond!
A couple $ABVX notes, incl a strong source of copium for me as I baghold (am down ~$50k YTD on it but feelsbad given +~400k previously):
1. There are 2.1m M&A linked shares from the 2025-1 AGA. 475k are MdG's. All expire YE 2027. So $178m of employee value lost if no txn by YE.
Scenario 1: Say $ABVX acq for $100/sh (illustrative). He now owns 2.45m shares worth $245m.
Scenario 2: No $ABVX acq. Loses 475k shares. Say re-granted another ~$10m/115k M&A shares at $85. 2.09m shares post-YE27. He would need an acq of ($245m/2.09m)=$117, or 17% higher, for it to be equiv to acq prior to YE27.
I think he'll sell.
