Engineer by day 🏗🚧, Sports addict by night 🏈🏀⚽️ Current Obsession: 2026 NFL Survivor @splashsports
Mission Viejo, CA
Joined March 2019
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Survivor Ownership Projections 🚨🏈🏆
Week 4 on @splashsports
Can we get just one mellow Sunday this year? This week feels like a great candidate for it!
🔹BAL is the Quality Chalk this week but some future value in Wk 5, 6, 14, and 16. My model is starting to downgrade the late weeks in the double pick contests due to the attrition we've seen, so the Ravens are grading well there.
🔹MIN is showing up as the best single pick contest option this week. Surely no concerns with Justin Jefferson being out against Miami right?! They are a dodge pile for me, but only on a slight technicality (like JAX in Wk 1) so they feel fine
🔹Every person in America is likely circling Buffalo in Week 11 (MIA) or Week 10 (NYJ). With the pace we are paring down the contests at right now, how large do you think their ownership can get then? Enticing play for me this week, I lean it's a pretty sharp way to go.
🔹I've got IND as my "No Duh!" play of the week. Think NYJ (wk 1), CAR (wk 2), and JAX (wk 3). They have some minimal value in the future, but I think they could really put it on WAS this week and make for a pretty sweat-free Sunday.
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WHOMST
Christian Gonzalez allowed 7 receptions for 105 yards to Matthew Golden and 3 receptions for 82 yards to Christian Watson.
Gonzalez is the only defender since at least 2018 to allow more than 80 receiving yards to two different players in the same game.
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Christian Gonzalez vs. Packers
Christian Watson:
3 targets
3 receptions allowed
82 yards allowed
1 TD allowed
Matthew Golden:
7 targets
7 receptions allowed
105 yards allowed
Watson and Golden are the first pair of Packers WRs with 150+ receiving and 1 receiving TD each in the same game since 1942.
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Jon Jackson retweeted
Christian Gonzalez vs. Packers
Christian Watson:
3 targets
3 receptions allowed
82 yards allowed
1 TD allowed
Matthew Golden:
7 targets
7 receptions allowed
105 yards allowed
Watson and Golden are the first pair of Packers WRs with 150+ receiving and 1 receiving TD each in the same game since 1942.
Jon Jackson retweeted
Jordan Love leads the NFL in passing yards while landing DEAD LAST in time to throw. This guys is working miracles behind this O Line!
Jon Jackson retweeted
2026 is the first season since 1971 with a 7-point upset in each of the first eight weeks of the season:
Week 1: AZ +8.5 > LAC
Week 2: NO +8.5 > BAL
Week 3: WSH +8.5 > SEA
Week 4: NE +7 > BUF
Week 5: TB +8.5 > DAL
Week 6: AZ +13.5 > LAR
Week 7: NYG +10 > HOU
Week 8: AZ +7 > DAL
Jon Jackson retweeted
THE SPORTS EQUINOX IS HERE! 🏈🏀⚾🏒
We’re celebrating with a $10,000 SPLASH CASH GIVEAWAY! 💰
Trade $25 or more on Splash Predict TODAY for a chance to be selected!
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People are really scared to call these boys the best in the league 👀
Top Receiving Duos in the NFL where both have minimum 300 Yards
Ceedee Lamb/George Pickens: 1005 Yards
Christian Watson/Matthew Golden: 1039 Yards
Davante Adams/Puca Nakua: 897 Yards
Malik Nabers/Isaiah Likely: 877 Yards
Added the qualifier because JSN has 717 yards on his own.
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Jordan Love praised Matthew Golden's "resilience" despite multiple drops tonight.
"Would he like to have a couple plays back? For sure," says Love. "There was a time he came back to me and said, 'Just keep trusting me, just keep coming to me.'
"That's what you love to see—that confidence, that resiliency. That's what I tell these guys all the time; don't hang your head after a bad play, just expect the ball to keep coming your way."
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I split up "Mistakes" into two different categories that I subjectively choose every week. First, the waste picks which are generally good teams facing each other who both have pretty obvious better spots later in the season. Second, the leverage picks aka the teams that played the top 5 or 6 chalkiest teams that week. I am a firm believer that this early in the season, you don't actually gain much by playing the leverage picks, its better to just not pick the favorites if you want to fade.
So single entry players are probably making a lot of mistakes right? NOPE!
Out of every single cohort in every contest, they are making the least mistakes. They come in below the field in mistake rate in every single one...
Ok JBB so how are we supposed to win at this survivor stuff?! You are probably gonna hate the next tweet...
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So far, the winning strategy has been to throw a dart at any of the random "mid" teams every single week. These are the teams who aren't the chalk, and also not waste or leverage. They are mid or "meh" for a fkn reason though! These teams are pretty consistently 15% of win probability lower than the chalkiest teams of the week. Look how Week 5 turned out.
The chalk teams had a weighted combined win probability of roughly 75% depending on the contest. Thanks to DAL, WAS, and ATL all losing these entries only advanced at a 45% clip this weekend. Now compare that to the mid teams where ALL 6 favorites won. Simply throw a dart at DET, NE, DEN, PIT, MIN, or NYJ and you were safely onto Week 6.
Over the course of the season the chalk is running about 12%ish under expectation while the mid tier who usually has about 15% less win probability is outperforming them by almost 4X in some contests.
Just spray and pray baby, just spray and pray.
See you all in the Week 6 Revival lobbies amirite?!
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If you enjoy this kinda content, I write about it every week! Give me a follow on substack.
Here is a link to the full Sharp Report article for this week: jonjackson.substack.com/p/do…
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Here's where the tilting begins, buckle up...
Single entry players are making the best decisions this year. Plain and simple.
Every contest they are +EV with their decisions before the games kick off (based on win probability & actual ownership). Obviously the larger books go into each weekend with lower EV due to portfolio diversity right? Yes, but not really. First of all, these numbers properly weight within the portfolios, and even moreso you can see the max books are doing a much better job of decision making compared to the large books.
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Good decisions are not really gaining anybody much of anything so far this season. Look how badly they are getting. The chart you just looked at shows single entries and small books set up the best entering the weekend. This chart below shows them getting absolutely demolished by the final whistle of Monday Night Football.
Based on the combined win probability of the teams that each cohort selected, single entries alone are running about 30% under expectation this year.
Seems pretty bad right? It gets worse...
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