Senior Research Fellow, National Defense University; adjunct prof., Georgetown. Columbia Ph.D. Studying Chinese military/foreign affairs. Retweets≠endorsement.
Washington, DC
Joined May 2012
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Book Announcement: Delighted to announce that #China's Quest for Military Supremacy (with Phillip C. Saunders) will be published by @politybooks in March 2025. See flyer for 30% discount code!
New book: "The PLA in a New Era: Individuals, Ideas, and Influence" just released from @ndupress
ndupress.ndu.edu/Publication… (1/3)
At the same time, there is considerable continuity. Many PLA developments under Xi build on earlier reforms, long-standing strategic priorities, and institutional habits rather than representing a complete break from the past. (3/3)
Authors include Jude Blanchette, Jonathan Cham, @hundman, Dean Cheng, Greg Graff, Mike Dahm, @EBKania, Phil Saunders, Andrew Taffer, @MeiaNouwens, @VeerleNouwens, Lucie Beraud-Sudreau, and Andrew Scobell
Pleased to see our book on PLA reforms, "Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA," on the @US_STRATCOM commander's professional reading list - "a heavy tome but the first book I'd recommend on the modern-day PLA" - alongside other great volumes stratcom.mil/Commanders-Lead… @INSSatNDU @ndupress
New publication: "The Silent Service: Assessing the PLAN's Influence in the Central Military Commission" (co-authored with LT Natalie Shen, USN) -- thanks to @ChinaMaritime for publishing this work. digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cm…
Joel Wuthnow retweeted
Pleased to share a special issue of @AsiaPolicy's PLA Watch, featuring guest contributor and top PLA scholar, Phil Saunders, of @INSSatNDU.
Phil unpacks what the recent purge of Zhang Youxia means for Party-army relations. His premise, that contemporary party-army relations in China assumes a tacit bargain by which the party grants the PLA a degree of autonomy in exchange for the military’s political loyalty -- sometimes called the “conditional compliance” model -- may no longer be valid.
He presents 4 models for understanding current Party-Army relations: 1) Keep the same basic structure, but with younger generals; 2) Restructure the political work and supervision/monitoring apparatus; 3) “Permanent Revolution” with periodic transfers and purges of senior brass; and 4) Get outside monitors to watch the PLA.
He finds that "the most likely approach would involve a mix of younger generals who might be more honest and more compliant and modest efforts to strengthen the political work system and monitoring capabilities."
Sign up for free to receive bi-weekly issues of PLA Watch and broader work from CCA below!
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In the latest China Leadership Monitor, I show that Xi's recent PLA purge cuts far deeper into operational muscle than his 2012-5 purge. What we are seeing is an audacious attempt to rid the PLA of its most corrupt elements as Xi pushes towards 2027.
prcleader.org/post/why-is-xi…
Xi Jinping has conducted a wide purge of the PLA leadership, but will there be any impact on the chances of war with Taiwan? I discuss in a new @WarOnTheRocks essay warontherocks.com/2026/02/th… short thread (1/x)
Longer-term time horizon is bleaker. Xi gone, a weaker successor in place, and likelihood of PLA returning to some of its old habits of corruption and obfuscation based on weak civilian control. Xi is aware of this and may look to the medium term as a prime target. (6/x)
For further analysis, see an upcoming @ChinaPowerCSIS report with a new dataset on purged officers and my forthcoming longform essay in the next issue of the China Leadership Monitor (7/end)
It was a pleasure to speak with @EvansRyan202 and colleagues for a @WarOnTheRocks podcast looking at recent PLA purges and implications for readiness and warfighting in the Taiwan Strait and elsewhere. warontherocks.com/2026/02/po…
Joel Wuthnow retweeted
What would be the consequences for China's economy, military, & social stability, and the international costs, of a failed military operation against Taiwan? A new GMF report examines these questions. It includes 4 short papers by @SheenaGreitens & J. Rinaldi; @jwuthnow; @ZackCooper; and L. Wright & @cvest88. gmfus.org/news/if-china-atta…
What would be the consequences for a botched or indecisive Chinese attack on Taiwan? I was delighted to contribute a paper to a new German Marshall Fund report edited by @BonnieGlaser on the military risks. gmfus.org/news/if-china-atta…
The prospect of U.S. military intervention is the key problem the PLA must consider in a war with Taiwan. What is the PLA’s plan to counter U.S. intervention? In a new monograph, I look at internal PLA writings to understand their views. (1/14)
ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/…
Sixth, Beijing will try to deny U.S. access, basing, and overflight through all means. The U.S. should work to assure ABO but cannot take it for granted. (13/14)