Here’s the steelman for why this chart might misjudge the political significance of NAFTA/China in the Rust Belt: As manufacturing becomes a smaller share of overall employment, each additional plant closure actually matters much more to manufacturing towns. Say you live in the Mon Valley in the early 90s. Since ‘45, probably 70-90% of the steel jobs packed up and left. But you still have 1 plant left in your town. Or maybe in a neighboring town. You might not work there, but your dad and grandpa probably did. You know people that do. Everyone does. In comes NAFTA/China and out goes that last plant. It doesn’t matter that this closure was part of a larger trend. It matters that there was at least something—some active part of your town’s manufacturing identity. And now there is nothing. Even if the job losses in that final shift from something to nothing were small, the shift has massive political significance for the people that live there.