I make maps and data viz and sometimes even run in elections
Burlington, Ontario
Joined June 2010
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These guys are so stupid they're celebrating and cheering the corporation who overworked the guy instead of the guy himself, gullible morons
Kyle Hutton retweeted
I find the large amounts of private money funding US Presidential campaigns well and truly disgusting. A system that is well and truly messed up.
Kyle Hutton retweeted
🚨NEW ARTICLE AND INTERACTIVES🚨
Polling has a problem this year.
Total Recall Bias.
Our findings suggest this probably causes a ~2pt error favoring Democrats in your standard generic ballot poll.
To add insult to injury, many pollsters are using pretty conservative weights this year. A large non-response bias amongst Republicans must occur to counteract these observations; otherwise, we are probably on track for a VA/NJ 2025 repeat.
The groups Trump made his largest gains with (younger, non-white, lower income, non-college, politically disaffected) are the most likely to lie to pollsters by saying they didn't vote for him in 2024, because they're reinforcing their upcoming vote choice.
projects.statenavigate.com/f…
Kyle Hutton retweeted
LMFAOOO
.@SenDanSullivan’s (the real one) campaign account on X has been suspended. The campaign sent us this message they received from X. Wild.
Kyle Hutton retweeted
Manitoba Model Update
🟠NDP: 43 seats (+9) | 58.5%
🔵PC: 13 seats (-9) | 30.3%
🔴MLP: 1 seat (-) | 7.1%
(+/- change since 2023 election)
🟠NDP MAJORITY GOVERNMENT🟠
Feel free to ask for any ridings!
You can always count on bots to be refreshingly honest. Or maybe this is @FreeAlbertaRob's alt lmfao
Anyway, if the UCP did this, it would be gloves off, absolutely. And as the Republicans in the US are finding out, this shit can backfire. Hard.
So maybe just don't lmfao #ableg
Kyle Hutton retweeted
It’s the communities who should be proportionately represented, not the parties.
This is pissing me off, so allow me to disabuse Rob of his bullshit here.
I made a projection model with the commission maps (89 seat, so not including the two potential rural holdouts - even better for the NDP!).
Let's model out some scenarios, shall we? Real quick bud. #ableg
Total garbage. @DonBraid is literally just regurgitating exactly what is NDP buddies are telling him. Would be nice if he represented both sides of an issue for once.
One of the most respected court of appeal justices in Alberta history is chairing the boundary committee. It’s a lie to say that it’s the UCP. The maps aren’t even available yet (though clearly leaked to the NDP by someone).
In addition, Judge Miller and half the NDP caucus complained that there should be 2 additional seats added to account for population growth. So that was done and left to the independent judge-led committee to figure out how to do it. I assume they have done so.
Further, last election the NDP lost the popular vote by almost 10 percent and still almost ended up winning the most seats. So obviously they don’t want any change whatsoever that could level the playing field.
How do you explain that Don? Did the NDP gerrymander the map last go around under Notley? Was the 2023 election undemocratic too?
The UCP isn’t making that claim because it’s disrespectful of the people - including the judge - who did the hard work of determining those past boundaries.
Your bias is so clear Don. It’s disturbing.
Scenario 1: the NDP gets about a 2% swing across AB.
Wow! The NDP get government off that!! Thats crazy right? Powered mostly by swing seats in Calgary which were ultra-close. Why you ask? Oh 'cause @FreeAlbertaRob and his cohort are fuckups.
Note the ranges however. #ableg
Y'all are dupes if you believe this bullshit about just "making the makes fairer."
Danielle Smith surrounds herself with losers like Rob Anderson, who encourage normal people in Calgary to flee to the NDP as the UCP self-destructs over culture war crap. This here is the problem.
I mean ffs, look at what I can do based on the commission boundaries. NDP up to extreme highs in Edmonton and the rest of Alberta. They lead the popular vote! But they lost ONE PERCENT in Calgary and lose lmfao!
@FreeAlbertaRob and his ilk are the problem, not fair boundaries.
Kyle Hutton retweeted
One of my favorite features of our Insider's Guide is this map overlay comparing the midterm travels of Trump/Vance vs. the 2028 Dem hopefuls. Almost two totally different universes hub.nationaljournal.com/midt…
You know I don't see any of these freaks and bots defending the Smithmander in AB concerned about the unfair maps that punish the Ontario Liberals due to their inefficient vote. They should be screaming at Doug Ford to fix the boundaries!
The talking points have been distributed by the AB gov't lmfao
If you want votes to = seats, support PR. If you want to end the NDP's electoral advantage in the cities, stop supporting your grifter Premier and separation. If you just want the UCP to win, fuck up the maps. #ableg
I love how all these losers are just now coming out of the woodwork to say "actually, votes should = seats."
'Gerrymandered' does not mean 'map where one party does better because of electoral geography'. Thats called a 'skill issue', which Peter should know a lot about. #ableg
