@lenenex
London
Joined April 2011
so what’s changed over the decade . all blah blah
Andrew Neil Just Called Andy Burnham’s Economic Plan Fairy Dust - Veteran broadcaster Andrew Neil has declared the Prime Minister’s big-state, high-tax, more-nationalisation vision of growth pure fantasy, telling Triggernometry that Burnham is “away with the fairies.” While the rest of the country stares at soaring debt, rising interest rates and a winter cost-of-living crunch, King of the North is still peddling the idea that more government control will magically deliver Scandinavian-level welfare on Mid-Atlantic taxes. If this is the plan, the fairies better start printing money.
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it’s about time the MSM was talking like this.
We haven't had neoliberalism for decades. Instead we have a system where central banks suppress risk, governments rescue failure and taxpayers absorb losses. Gains are privatised; risks are socailised. This isn't capitalism; it's the opposite. thetimes.com/comment/columni…
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This is completely dishonest - no wonder people don’t trust politicians.
I want to be honest about how we’ve got to a place where British billpayers are paying some of the highest energy costs in Europe. Over the past 40 years, we’ve given up control of our necessities, outsourced our essentials and privatised the basics. Water, transport, housing. And of course, energy. Now the public are paying the price. We haven’t invested in the infrastructure we need. Conflict overseas has pushed up energy costs and it’s hurting our businesses and families. That’s why we need to take back greater control of our energy system. This week, I announced Great British Grid, which will speed up connections and push down bills. We’re also giving mayors, local leaders and communities a stronger role. With funding for People’s Power projects, communities will be able to build solar panels on libraries and town halls, hydro schemes in rivers or publicly owned windfarms on local land. But it’s not just energy we need stronger public control over. It’s also water, housing, transport and care. So we’re repealing the ban on public ownership of water companies. We’re building more council homes than this country has seen since the end of World War Two. We’re reforming the leasehold system so families aren’t squeezed for every penny. And we’re opening up home ownership for first time buyers who can’t rely on the bank of mum and dad. This week I also announced my determination to introduce a National Care Service, to put people above profit and to give pensioners peace of mind. Together, we’ll rewire the country from top to bottom so that it works for all people in all places. That is the only way to put Britain back on the right path. It’s the only way to put power back in people’s hands. And it’s the only way we will bring hope again.
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well said . let’s see this printed in the MSM papers Bloomberg etc
Replying to @andyburnham
This is nonsense dressed up as honesty. British bills are among Europe's highest because successive governments — of both parties — refused to build and refused to produce. The UK has not commissioned a nuclear power station that actually opened since Sizewell B in 1995. Instead UK squeezed another decade and more out of the old British Energy AGR fleet, running reactors far beyond the lives their own accounts assumed, because no one in Westminster wanted to own a twenty-year decision. Hinkley Point C was meant to be lighting homes by now. That is not the failure of privatisation. That is the failure of politicians to plan beyond a parliament. UK then did the same to the North Sea sitting on a mature, world-class basin with the skills and supply chain to match, and taxing it at a headline 78 per cent, rewriting the terms repeatedly, and told investors their licences have no future. So production falls faster than demand, and they import the same molecules by tanker — at a higher price, with a bigger carbon footprint, and with the jobs offshored to Qatar and Texas. Solar panels on libraries will not fix this. Baseload will. Until a government is willing to say so, bills will stay high — whoever owns the wires.
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inevitable
Middle East Eye is at it again and this time,unfortunately,with Somaliland officials helping provide the ammunition. Its latest article begins and ends by demonizing and portraying Somaliland’s locally popular relations with Israel through the prism of confrontation,such as Israel vs Turkey,Israel vs the Houthis,and Somaliland as an Israeli "bridgehead" in the Horn. A framing that by reducing Somaliland into a pawn in a regional rivarly may play well to the audience at the Amiri Diwan in Doha,but hardly tells Somaliland’s own story. Somaliland officials should understand that interviews they give can be used to fit Somaliland into someone else's geopolitical storyline. middleeasteye.net/news/israe…
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Mm interesting but this individual was the key man for Blair declaring weapons of mass destruction, the 45 minute fiasco and defending his work at the Hutton enquiry - a convenient means of putting this scandal of poor intel to bed. So he may have interesting words to say about Putin but absolutely nothing that anyone who who has worked the region didn’t/doesn’t k know. Maybe the kindest comment is to express sadness on judgement and trust on colleagues who should have known or maybe knew better. It’s tough being a chief whatever the job.
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wrong. Andy Burnham help build up business across Manchester as Mayor by promoting/ doing attractive land deals with investors such as the UAE and making that process as regulatory free as possible. Manchester became a business boom town as a result. the problem for Burnham now is as PM he cannot be the free wheeling deal promoter that the U.K. absolutely needs whilst also be a left of his Party old school big state regulator
Here are two career politicians who have never built a business that had to survive on its own. Their entire adult lives have been spent inside politics - drawing salaries, climbing political ladders, and spending other people’s money - without ever running a business, making a payroll, or answering to a customer who could simply walk away.
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So what’s going on? well it’s not that complicated is it? The big central banks got hooked on QE for about a. decade. Why mention this? Cheap debt - almost zero interest rates. Cheaper than equity and with the C Banks showing no sign of an end game ? what’s not to like? Massive leverage. Massive risk taking. Massive yield business. Massive diversion away from long term productive equity. And: Massive State debt growth- so easy - so little call on State funds to pay interest on the debt. Massive easy political blah blah that all is ok with more welfare , more waste, less focus on long term real productive asset growth. Yes: Massive misallocation of State funds. So- what’s going on? The debt binge QE party is over. There never was a free lunch. And the general public will be asked to pick up the pieces- what’s left? Our taxation is paying for the Central Banks QE policies and resultant debt growth / misallocation of funds. Short term PE, VC, Hedge funds looking short term leveraged yield? It’s over. So. What’s going on? The QE party is over. Neutral rates no longer near zero. Rising back to long term levels.
The most closely watched barometer of financial stress in European bond markets has climbed to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis. The difference, or spread, between France and Germany's benchmark yields jumped to 1.3 percentage point. France’s parlous fiscal position comes to the fore as PM presents 2027 budget unlikely to pass parliament.
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bravo for this analysis
There are occasions in politics when one has to give credit to somebody with whom one profoundly disagrees, and Andy Burnham's speech to the Labour Party Conference today was one of them. As a piece of political theatre, it was exceptionally well delivered. It was aspirational, carefully constructed and calculated to speak directly to many of the anxieties now troubling the country. I can understand perfectly well why those sitting in the conference hall responded to it as they did. Yet, having listened carefully to what Burnham actually said, I was left with considerably more questions than answers. Indeed, the speech encapsulated precisely why I have become so distrustful of his politics. It is one thing to identify what people desperately want to hear; it is quite another to demonstrate that government can afford to give it to them. That distinction matters to me because I supported Keir Starmer for almost the opposite reason. Whatever criticisms can now be made of his premiership, I believed there was a seriousness to his original proposition: do not promise the electorate what cannot be delivered simply for the gratification of immediate applause. After fourteen and a half years of Conservative government, Britain was not a country that could simply be turned around by ministerial decree. The economic damage, the deterioration of public services, the burden of debt and the consequences of our departure from the European Union had accumulated over many years. The country resembled a great ship proceeding inexorably towards disaster. The immediate task was not to pretend that it could somehow be spun around in the water; it was to arrest its course, stabilise it and begin the long and difficult process of putting it into reverse before a different direction could properly be established. Such a process was inevitably going to be slow, difficult and, at times, deeply unpopular. Yet that is the uncomfortable distinction between governing a country and addressing an enthusiastic conference hall. The former requires difficult choices, patience and an acceptance that economic reality cannot simply be wished away; the latter permits rather greater freedom to describe the destination without necessarily explaining every stage of the journey required to reach it. It is against that background that Burnham's proposals on pensions and social care must be examined. There is an entirely legitimate debate to be had about the future of the State Pension triple lock. But that debate requires some historical perspective. Many of today's pensioners entered employment at fifteen or sixteen and spent forty, fifty or more years paying tax and National Insurance under a social contract that successive generations understood perfectly well. While they were working, their contributions helped sustain the pensions, healthcare and public services required by those who had already retired; when their own working lives eventually ended, the next generation would enter the workforce and continue that compact. There was nothing novel about one working generation helping to support the retired generation before it. That was an essential part of the post war welfare settlement. Those who have honoured their side of that bargain throughout an entire working life are therefore entitled to expect that, if government now proposes to alter the settlement, it explains precisely what is changing, why that change is necessary and what protection they will retain. Burnham proposes to change that arrangement after the present Parliament and to use savings arising from pension reform as part of the means of financing his proposed National Care Service. Superficially, it is an attractive political proposition: reform one expensive commitment and use the proceeds to address another of the great unresolved injustices within British society. The difficulty, however, is that the arithmetic thus far presented does not demonstrate that the proposition can withstand serious financial scrutiny. That is hardly a peripheral objection to be resolved at some later date; it goes to the very credibility of what is being promised. If Britain is to establish a National Care Service capable of providing care free at the point of need, while protecting people from the potentially ruinous costs associated with old age, disability and conditions such as dementia, then we are contemplating one of the most significant extensions of the welfare state for generations. Such an undertaking cannot rest upon aspiration alone. It requires a detailed and credible explanation of its cost, its scope and, above all, how it is to be paid for. The comparison between cancer and dementia illustrates the injustice particularly starkly. A person diagnosed with cancer can expect their medical treatment to be provided by the National Health Service without their home being placed at risk to meet the cost of that treatment. Yet another person, through no fault or choice of their own, may develop dementia and require years of social care for which substantial personal assets can ultimately be consumed. There is something profoundly unsatisfactory about that distinction, and any government capable of resolving it would deserve considerable credit. But that makes it all the more important that the promise is defined with absolute clarity. Will care itself be free while accommodation remains chargeable? Which costs will continue to fall upon the individual? What will happen to means testing? How will residential care be treated? Most importantly, what will the complete system cost once all of those promises have been translated from the conference platform into statutory entitlements available to millions of people? These questions cannot simply be dismissed as the preoccupation of accountants. They represent the difference between an attractive political aspiration and a programme capable of surviving contact with the realities of government. The same principle must apply when we discuss the wider welfare state. A social settlement cannot consist exclusively of obligations placed upon the taxpayer and entitlements granted to the individual. Any enduring social contract must contain responsibilities on both sides. Those who genuinely cannot work must be protected. I would defend that principle without hesitation. A civilised country does not abandon people because illness, disability or circumstances beyond their control prevent them from supporting themselves. But where somebody is capable of working, there must also come a point at which society is entitled to expect a contribution in return for the support it provides. That is why I believe there is a legitimate case for a modern form of National Service. I do not mean the indiscriminate military conscription of an earlier age. I mean a properly structured system of paid employment, training and community service for those who have remained outside the workforce for an extended period, with military service forming one possible route where an individual is suitable and the Armed Forces consider it appropriate. The principle is neither punitive nor particularly revolutionary. It is the principle upon which generations built their lives: work brings responsibilities as well as rewards. One learns to arrive on time, to work alongside others, to accept instruction, to acquire skills, to complete what one has undertaken and, ultimately, to understand the relationship between personal endeavour and personal advancement. If politicians are prepared to tell pensioners who may have begun work at fifteen or sixteen and contributed for half a century that the settlement upon which they planned their retirement must now change in the interests of a new social contract, then they must be equally prepared to discuss what that contract requires of those of working age who are capable of contributing. There can be no credible social contract in which responsibility travels in only one direction. Yet even these enormous questions ultimately return us to the issue Britain continues to approach with extraordinary reluctance: economic growth and our relationship with Europe. Burnham was right to acknowledge that Brexit has done more harm than good. That acknowledgement matters, because the debate can no longer sensibly be conducted as though Britain were still standing in the polling booth in June 2016. We now possess years of evidence about what leaving our largest trading bloc has meant for trade, investment, productivity and economic performance. The central question is therefore no longer whether one happened to vote Leave or Remain a decade ago. It is what relationship with Europe best serves the interests of Britain now. That question cannot be separated from Burnham's other ambitions. Every one of them ultimately encounters the same economic reality. A National Care Service, a properly funded NHS, credible defence, better education, secure pensions and rising living standards all depend upon the country's capacity to generate the wealth from which those commitments must be financed. Government can redistribute existing wealth, increase taxation or borrow, but there are limits to each. Ultimately, the only sustainable means by which a country can support substantially better public services without endlessly increasing the burden upon its citizens is to enlarge the economy from which those services are financed. That is why Europe is not some peripheral constitutional argument to be revisited for sentimental reasons. It is central to the economic question confronting Britain. Nor is the issue now solely economic. The strategic environment has altered profoundly. Britain and its European neighbours face threats and uncertainties that were scarcely imaginable in their present form when the referendum took place. Economic strength, defence, energy security and geopolitical influence are becoming increasingly inseparable. Britain, France and Germany possess between them extraordinary economic, diplomatic and military weight. The question Britain must eventually answer is whether our national interest is better served by attempting perpetually to influence Europe from its margins or by once again participating fully in shaping its direction. For me, that means the question of European Union membership must eventually return to legitimate political debate. Burnham did not answer that question today. He approached it, acknowledged part of the problem and indicated a desire for a closer relationship, but stopped short of telling the country where that journey ultimately leads. And perhaps that encapsulates my difficulty with the speech as a whole. There is much in Burnham's diagnosis of Britain's difficulties with which I can agree, and much in his ambition for the country that I would like to see achieved. But wanting something to be possible does not make it so, and eloquence from a conference platform cannot absolve a prospective government from the altogether sterner disciplines of arithmetic, economic reality and implementation. If the triple lock is to be changed, show us precisely what replaces it. If the savings are to finance social care, show us the figures demonstrating that they can do so. If care is to become free at the point of need, define exactly what "free" means and what remains chargeable. If we are constructing a new social contract, explain not only what citizens may expect from the state but what the state may reasonably expect from those capable of contributing. And if Brexit has indeed done more harm than good, have the courage to tell the country where our relationship with Europe should ultimately lead. Burnham demonstrated today that he understands the aspirations of an electorate weary of being told what cannot be done. What he has yet to demonstrate is that he possesses a credible and fully financed programme capable of doing what he says can be done. That is the distinction upon which my judgement of his speech ultimately rests. It was an impressive exercise in political aspiration and, in places, a masterclass in populism. But Britain does not merely need another politician capable of describing a better country. It needs a government capable of paying for one.
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sadly likely
I fear this winter Britain is heading for the terrible trifecta: a gilt crisis, a sterling crisis, and an energy crisis. Hard times ahead.
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乌克兰最近把一架相对完好迫降的俄军最新型“天竺葵-4”(Geran-4)无人机,当场大卸八块。 拆完之后,桌上摆着的零件,呈现出一个既荒谬又无比现实的真相: 整架号称打得乌克兰防空防不胜防的喷气大杀器,除了最外面的机壳和总装螺丝是俄罗斯自己拧的, 里面所有的关键器官,几乎全是从外面运进来的。 先看动力。 过去老款天竺葵-2用的是活塞螺旋桨,飞起来像拖拉机一样嗡嗡响,时速不到两百公里,乌克兰机动防空队开着皮卡架挺机枪就能拦截。 但这次拆开天竺葵-4,机腹里塞的是一台微型涡喷发动机。 飞行高度直接从四千米拔到了八千米,是老款的两倍; 巡航时速干到了四百五十到五百公里,甚至还能更快。 这玩意儿已经能从克里米亚起飞,一口气狂奔七百多公里,直接扎进乌克兰西北部的卢茨克。 谁造的? 拆开一看,中国产的微型涡喷。有些虽然标着俄罗斯组装,核心组件也全是中国货。 再看眼睛。 头部装了一套光电转塔,白昼、夜视、红外三合一。 十倍光学变焦,加三十二倍数码变焦。 八千米的高空往下看,地面车辆的轮廓一清二楚。 它根本不需要前线侦察兵冒死指引。操纵员哪怕坐在几百公里外的布良斯克、奥廖尔或者克里米亚的后方工位上,只要链路连着,就能像玩模拟器一样实时遥控它扑向目标。 那实时信号怎么传? 专家从机身里抠出了两个普通的 GSM 模块,上面插着民用电话卡。 更离奇的是,现场技术人员在这些残骸里,不仅翻出了俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的 SIM 卡,甚至还找到了乌克兰本土运营商、以及欧盟国家的流量卡。 无人机只要一过境,直接蹭乌克兰本地民用基站的网络,把自己的实时位置往回传。 万一飞进没有手机信号的荒郊野岭呢? 它还有备手。 拆解人员从里面掏出了一块来自中国的自组网 Mesh 调制解调器,通信半径三百公里。 几架天竺葵在空中编队飞,彼此之间能自动互相当中继,你传给我、我传给后方,直接在天上搭出一套无中心的移动局域网,几百公里外的视频画面照样掐不断。 最后拆到最值钱的机载电脑飞控板。 刮开主板上的涂层,芯片上的丝印虽然被磨去了一半,但剩下的英文字母依然清晰可辨: Texas Instruments——美国德州仪器。 现场专家给了一句很冷酷的总结: “这架飞机上真正属于俄罗斯制造的,就只有复合材料的机身外壳,以及最后的总装车间。” 这些零件最后运到鞑靼斯坦的阿拉布加(Alabuga)特区,工人们把壳子一合、螺丝一拧,就成了前线每天夜里呼啸而过的精确打击武器。 而根据乌克兰军情局的评估,像阿拉布加这样的工厂,现在每个月能量产大概三千架天竺葵-4和天竺葵-5。 打了四年多,制裁令签了一叠又一叠,结果最前沿的致命武器内部,流淌的依然是全球供应链的血液: 动力与通信来自成熟民用货架,核心控制芯片来自美国转道走私,连定位回传都在蹭对手基站的 SIM 卡。 这才是现代战争里最棘手的现实: 威权体制根本不需要在温室里从头研发一套自给自足的军工帝国。 只要民用消费级工业品在全球随处可买,只要洗钱通道和转口贸易依然处处漏风, 他们就能用极低的成本,把全世界的民用技术拼装成工业级的杀人工厂。 如果外部世界的制裁只盯着军品清单打补丁,却堵不住庞大的双用途灰色管涌, 这种廉价而致命的涡喷蜂群,在流水线上就很难真正停下来。
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Somaliland -USA - only one positive action from the recent visit? If so then the opportunity for recognition at this particular time was lost. More likely it was never going to happen. So why expose a President to loss of his most important leadership’s agenda? So much has been going on in the USA. China/Xi, the UN. The possibility of State to focus on recognition was always a tough ask. So, takeaways? Timing? Preparation? Focus on State? Minimal Blah Blah?
One positive action which can come out of Somaliland Prez Irro's visit to US would be for US State Department to quickly separate Somaliland's travel advisory from that of Somalia. In no way are conditions the same: Hargeisa does not deserve the "Do not Travel;" Mogadishu does!
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At the Council on Foreign Relations @CFR_org in New York, I presented Somaliland’s case and its 35-year record of peace, democracy and effective governance. Recognition is Somaliland’s historical and legal right and a strategic investment in security, trade and stability across the Horn of Africa.
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During my visit to Washington, D.C., I had a productive and important meeting with U.S. @SenTedCruz, a steadfast advocate for Somaliland. We discussed strengthening the Somaliland–U.S. strategic partnership, advancing the recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty, and establishing a Somaliland-specific U.S. Travel Advisory that accurately reflects the security realities on the ground. Somaliland remains a reliable partner of the United States in counterterrorism, maritime security, and advancing peace and stability across the Horn of Africa.
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very smart thing to do when Pres Xi is in town meeting Trump. Very smart indeed.
🚨 BREAKING: Somaliland’s Minister of Interior and National Security, Abdalle Mohamed Arab, has met with Taiwan’s President, marking another significant step in the rapidly deepening partnership between the two countries. The meeting comes during a major week for Somaliland’s international engagement, as the Republic also became a founding member of the World Alliance for Disaster Management. Somaliland–Taiwan relations continue to expand beyond diplomacy into security, institutional cooperation, national resilience and disaster preparedness.
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The Times has revealed that more than half of Labour MPs have a greater number of disability benefit claimants in their constituency than the size of their electoral majority. Some 58 per cent of Labour’s 366 seats in England and Wales have more people claiming personal independence payments (Pip) than Labour's majority. Pat McFadden –Secretary of State for Work and Pensions – is one of those MPs. And, more than 100 Labour MPs have more individuals specifically claiming Pip for mental health conditions (e.g. anxiety, ADHD and autism) than their majorities. Is it any wonder that Labour MPs are expected to again revolt over plans to reform – however modestly – disability benefits? ✍️ Ameer Kotecha Article | spectator.com/article/labour… | @Ameer_Kotecha
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If his stories were even partially true, he’d have blurted them years ago when the feelings were raw. He certainly wouldn’t have waited 30 years. No. He’s cashing in his dead sister, who he treated appallingly in her hour of need.
“I don’t hold resentments,” Charles Spencer, Princess Diana’s younger brother, told Mark Phillips of his feelings regarding the royal family. “I’m not a vengeful, resentful person. I’m just an eyewitness to history.” More of their conversation airs Sunday.
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‘Angela Merkel was the true extremist of our age’. @matthewsyed “Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them.” Karl Popper thetimes.com/article/61cae74…
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