“…Wandering by lone sea-breakers, And sitting by desolate streams; — World-losers and world-forsakers, On whom the pale moon gleams…”
Rama
Joined February 2024
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I used @ElevenLabs to translate Miyamoto-san’s reflections on AI into English. I hope this is useful to those who want to understand.
🤖 Made with AI
Let’s go back to the MacBook reaction. I see a crowd angry about a feature they didn’t ask for (but the supply chain clearly did.) Between this and the RAM shortage, is it any surprise Apple would start pushing giant pads on everyone with minimal specs and maximum woo in a few years?
User of Artificial Platforms retweeted
Another shitty death in a year of shitty deaths. Patrick Stewart was one of my favorite actors, and Captain Picard is more or less a north star. Seeing that he and the TNG cast were all really close for years after the show ended kind of shows how cool of a guy he was. RIP
User of Artificial Platforms retweeted
Patrick was one of those icons who we somehow all took for granted would always be with us.
I grew up as a fan, and was later gifted the privilege of becoming a colleague and friend, working with him for many years on “American Dad!”, “Family Guy”, and “Ted”. He was that rare actor who could take any bit of dialogue and elevate it, making a good writer sound great, and a great writer sound masterful. He was also as humble as they come. I remember exchanging emails with him a number of years ago when he was beginning day 1 of a new film. He commented to me that he always walked onto a new set feeling like the biggest novice there. My stunned reaction was the same as anyone’s would be. I said, “Patrick, if you feel that way, the rest of us are screwed.” We have lost a legendary actor today, and for many of us, a good friend. He will be deeply missed by the entire planet.
User of Artificial Platforms retweeted
What a heartbreaking week it has been. Sir Patrick Stewart was a friend, a colleague, and a magnificent actor. From the stage to the bridge of the Enterprise, he brought intelligence, grace, and a deep sense of humanity to everything he did. Captain Picard stood for the best of us, and so did the man who played him. I was filled with affection and admiration for him and his work.
My heart goes out to Sunny and his family. He will be deeply missed.
You don’t go spending a bunch in R&D over that many years only to deploy the fruits of the labor into one product. The hinge mechanism will drive the Mac Pad, ya’ll
I understand now; we’ve lost our chance. Fed subsidized compute all the way up to a few weeks ago, when things were the best. Then it all got pulled away. That was it.
I’m seeing a lot of folks serve quantized takes on the language model situation and the global economy 🤔
If you consider how small a fraction of the global population are intentional users of language models…
User of Artificial Platforms retweeted
My predictions over the following months:
1. Stock market will get hurt bad when the music stops on data centers, models, and chips.
Too much froth, too high of investment, too many companies will fail. The switching costs are low. I don't know how these companies will become profitable. Its a mega bubble.
The rest of the economy is already in a deep recession. Real pain will set in when the public markets dive.
2. Power is the bottleneck.
AI is burning an absurd amount of power. The cost of electricity is skyrocketing which is making the cost of everyday life more expensive and hurting quality of life. I'm against data centers because of the power, not the water.
The grid is extremely fragile and the weakness will be exposed in the coming months.
3. Subsidies are skewing the market.
AI isn't cheap. The prices to use it are artificially low because of subsidies all the way up the chain.
You pay $20 or $200 a month but the true costs are 10x That spread is venture capital money being incinerated at scale.
When they raise the price, the users will disappear and investors will hold the bag.
3. A big security breach is coming.
A bank, a certain model, something is going to rock our world.
People are letting bots log in to their banks, their email and everything else. Big trouble coming.
4. Grokbot is exceptional.
Its the first model that is adding significant value to my everyday life. I don't know why anybody would use a different personal assistant.
5. AI is insanely high maintenance
Billions are being poured into training the next model. They day it comes out its already behind. China has cheaper electricity and more chips.
The chips they bought will be obsolete in 18 months.
Companies are stuck paying big money every month to maintain and update all of their AI tools. Its a mess.
6. The power companies will renege on their deals.
Political pressure will unwind all the unsustainable power deals these data centers and LLMs have negotiated.
Power costs will explode. Then comes the choice:
Do we jack up costs for our AI / compute and watch everybody switch to the next model or do we incinerate more VC capital? Nobody wins.
7. Credit will be the first domino to fall.
Data centers are already struggling to finance the GPUs over 10 years when they will be obsolete in 18 months. We'll end up with a shit load of half built data centers who can't negotiate power rates or buy chips because nobody will let them borrow money.
The money will get cold feet as soon as the markets tank and the show will be over.
8. It'll be a dark, dark period in economic markets.
The people who own assets that make real money (real estate or businesses) will win.
The people who plan ahead and avoid massive leverage will win.
The people with cash on their balance sheet will accumulate more assets and generate exceptional wealth.
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Don't listen to me. I'm just a bear. Not investment advice. Good luck!
Anthropic: “We’ve got an IPO!”
OpenAI: “We’ve got proofs!”
Apple: “Enjoy a free trial of Apple Arcade.”