linewise

How much runway does Physical AI have? If LLM scaling laws are any indication, a lot. The largest publicly announced physical AI dataset today is ~1M hours (Dyna-2). Map that onto LLM training tokens and it lands right around GPT-2.5. Past the "cool demo" stage, nowhere near "this changes everything." Getting to GPT-5-equivalent takes something like 2B hours. That's ~2,000× from where the field is today. The pace is real though. Publicly announced datasets went from ~10K hours to 1M in under two years. Even if you assume a more conservative 10× a year from here, GPT-5-equivalent shows up around 2030.