Rider retweeted
Look at the contempt in the eyes of the civil servants. They are stunned that they’re being questioned “why can’t a combat engineer change a lightbulb?”.
This is an example of why we know government spending is the most wasteful and unproductive use of funds in the economy.
Hard working people pay a fortune in tax so these bureaucrats can cook up insane spending programs.
If you’re a tax payer, watch this video and consider how little they care about the money they take from you.
Rider retweeted
Ah yes, communism the enlightened system that can only succeed if executed with absolute perfection by a caste of flawless, selfless, omniscient demigods who have somehow transcended every human flaw. Zero greed. Zero power hunger. Zero bureaucratic incompetence. Zero ability...
Rider retweeted
Like nuclear, the people banning it will tell you in 20 years why you owe them all your money for the problems created by not improving technology.
Don’t listen to them. Accelerate.
Rider retweeted
"But if AI does everything, what's left for humans?"
What an unbelievably depressing question.
As if the entire purpose of human existence was to perform economically valuable labor.
As if spending 40 years answering emails, processing invoices, debugging software and sitting in meetings was the pinnacle of civilization.
We invented machines to escape physical labor.
We invented computers to escape repetitive calculations.
Now we're inventing intelligence to escape cognitive labor.
And somehow people have convinced themselves that this is a tragedy.
I don't want humanity to spend the next thousand years finding new ways to keep everyone employed.
I want humanity to reach a point where employment is no longer a prerequisite for survival.
Why is that such a controversial ambition?
Put high level public servants on base rate pay plus bonus structures for delivery. Significant penalties for failures of this nature.
Nothing will change. Listen to the RNZ mess. It's the same old story - "accept responsibility", "reviews", "lessons learned going forward".....blah blah blah
Words.
Empty.
Words.
Nothing.
Changes.
Ever.
If National get back in, it's time for them to do what they should have done three years ago.
Remove all funding and encourage a user-subscriber model. If lefties want left media, they can pay for it themselves.
rnz.co.nz/news/business/2466…
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Rider retweeted
yes
卧槽，这踏马太毒了
DeepMind 掌门人、诺奖得主 Demis Hassabis 刚刚把延续了上百年的现代学校教育底裤彻底扒光了：
全球几十万名数学老师每天关在办公室里，为同一门中学数学课重复手搓着一模一样的 PPT，这简直是人类智力资源最荒诞的工业级空转。
很多人至今还把名校名师的课堂讲授当成稀缺资源，拼了命去抢学区房和重点班，
但 Hassabis 直接用最冷酷的第一性原理砸碎了这个幻觉，
标准化的知识灌输从来不配占用昂贵的线下课堂，死记硬背和刷题完全应该被踢出教室，交给能按每个孩子毫秒级反应速度实时调频的私人 AI，加上全世界最顶尖的那几个大师录好底层大课，就足以把全球基础教育的讲授环节一次性彻底平替。
过去两百年里，学校本质上是一座把千差万别的碳基大脑强行塞进同一条流水线、按同一个节拍器拧螺丝的工业时代兵营，
老师沦为了人肉复读机，学生被困在枯燥的题海里比拼谁更像一台劣质硬盘，
而一旦 AI 和顶级大师把标准化的知识传递彻底接管，线下教室唯一剩下的合法存在价值，就只剩下了机器永远无法通过权重计算出来的五个维度：
人际博弈、复杂项目实战、创业野心、创造力，以及最致命的判断力。
这里有一个极度冷酷的反直觉真相：
当个性化 AI 把考高分的边际成本砸穿地板，按标准答案培养出来的做题家，在出校门的那一刻就已经直接沦为了算力废料。
未来的阶层分化，从来不再取决于谁的脑子里背下了更多现成的公式，
而是取决于当 AI 把一万种完美方案同时拍在桌上时，谁拥有拍板做决定的判断力，谁能攒起一个活人团队去把事情干成，
所以别再逼着孩子在死记硬背的泥潭里跟硅基芯片比拼记忆容量了，当流水线式的教书匠和做题家同时迎来历史性失业，谁能先把教室变成训练人性直觉与创业野心的实战沙盘，谁才能在算力时代拿到唯一不被平替的入场券
"By twelve most of us were in bed. Classic Luxon; missing the mark and failing to read the room."
Oblivious.
stuff.co.nz/politics/3610565…
Rider retweeted
For my electorate predictions I got 100% of safe seats correct, 100% of likely seats correct, 71% of lean seats (which were 60% to 75% probability) correct and the two Too Close To Call seats went 50/50. The lean seats may end up at 86% after specials.
patreon.com/pollingpolitics/…
Against the preliminary results, the model did pretty well. This model's average prediction was 0.61 percentage points away from the preliminary election result.
All but Maori Party were within indicative range - which may change on finals.
Smallest error was TOP, biggest error was National.
Not sure there was much advantage in this model vs simply averaging the polls, but something to work on for next time.
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Final NZ Poll of Polls
Labour 29.43%
National 27.63%
Greens 14.55%
ACT 10.05%
NZ First 9.99%
Top 6.01%
Maori 1.37%
Other 0.97%
These are the final estimates from my polling model combining the major NZ polls and adjusting for recency, sample size and pollster reliability.
Below, I've added ranges which indicate the variation around each estimate. They incorporate polling uncertainty and historical results, but aren't calibrated confidence intervals.
The idea has been to see whether we could build a model more accurate than the individual polls produced by the major NZ pollsters.
What will happen on election night?
I don't know.
Prediction makes fools of us all. Especially me.
I'm more interested in whether we have identified a genuine signal or merely built a random number generator.
But whatever happens, I think we can all agree that rugby will be the winner on the day.
Methodology: Rather than just averaging the polls, I used a recency-weighted model, accounting for sample size, historical pollster accuracy, potential bias and demographic turnout effects. I also experimented with some half-arsed Bayesian adjustments using a few previous election results. Some stats, a little psychology, some guesses, the ground-up toenails of a backbencher and a few boxes of Panhead.
Finally, I've estimated the indicative ranges as a get-out-of-jail-free card.
Thanks for following :)
Updated my poll to include the Roy Morgan results:
Labour 29.12%
National 27.95%
Greens 14.93%
ACT 9.97%
NZ First 9.71%
TOP 6.16%
Maori 1.29%
Other 0.86%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
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Updated my poll to include the Curia results:
Labour 29.08%
National 28.16%
Greens 14.92%
ACT 9.92%
NZ First 9.70%
Opportunity 6.03%
Maori 1.33%
Other 0.86%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
Updated my poll to include the Verian results:
Labour 29.20%
National 27.96%
Greens 14.89%
NZ First 9.94%
ACT 9.65%
TOP 5.96%
Maori 1.42%
Other 0.98%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
Rider retweeted
I love the magical conception socialists have of their ideology.
Apparently, socialism means everyone gets affordable food, housing, healthcare, and a comfortable retirement, while nobody has to worry about producing any of it.
How? By transferring control of production and distribution to politicians, who will presumably abolish scarcity, eliminate incompetence, and develop an unprecedented resistance to corruption.
And when the inevitable shortages arrive, they'll blame capitalism for failing to produce what they prevented it from producing.
It's remarkable how confidently people advocate an economic system without demonstrating the slightest understanding of economics.
Updated my poll to include the RNZ results:
Labour 28.79%
National 27.54%
Greens 14.52%
NZ First 10.58%
ACT 10.21%
TOP 6.03%
Maori 1.42%
Other 0.91%
I combine multiple polls and adjust for previous pollster performance, recency, sample size and historical error. These are tested against previous election results.
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