Dr. Skywalker

My regime indicator told me not to trade, but I broke my rule and ended up in a losing streak, though I cut my size diligently and only took paper cuts. But I am not happy with it. So what should I do? Admit the mistake, don't do it again, and follow my process.

Rule #1: don't blow up. Suggested read: arxiv.org/html/1603.06183v1

Model replay: 2018: Nov 13 BearDip -> Nov 14 BearDipBreakdown short. 2022: Jan 19 BearDip -> Jan 21 BearDipBreakdown short. The flip requires a specific model Exit + confirmation signal. A stop loss alone won't trigger it.

Possible model path: - Mon Close: Triggered a BearDip Buy Signal. - If price drops further: Exit long (Stop Loss) and flip to BearDipBreakdown Short.

My $TQQQ trend-following model issues a SELL signal (PeakGivebackNextOpen) after today's close. I'll exit my position tomorrow morning at open.

$66.8 will be my uncle point.

My swing trading account hasn't made any progress lately. The market regime being in RED says it all. I have only taken one trade in the last two weeks, and it was a loss.

Data without critical thinking is just noise. "If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." — Ronald Coase Always validate your assumptions before letting the algorithms run wild. 📊💡

My $TQQQ model triggered a BullDip BUY signal (oversold pullback in uptrend) after Friday's close. The buy order will execute at Monday's market open. Max historical loss for the BullDip family was -12.7% in 2018 (when an 8% hard stop triggered a next-open exit into a gap down).

$QQQ: 5 straight down days, -5.52%. Since 1999, 7 similar cases: 5-day loss of 4–8%, still above the 140-DMA. Avg forward returns: - 1 day: +0.30% - 1 week: +2.40% - 6 months: +15.59% (6 complete cases) Small sample. Recovery can still begin with more downside.

FreshHighReversalSHORT can precede deeper corrections. In my model replay, 8/21 completed six-month cases saw QQQ fall 10%+ before regaining its pre-entry high; one reached 20%+ (COVID). A short exit or BullDip entry cannot confirm a bottom. $TQQQ $QQQ

The last precedent of a BullDip making a big move after a FreshHighReversalSHORT in my model was in late 2016 off the ATH. May trigger tomorrow after close if $TQQQ drops. Historically, this entry family has a 55.6% win rate, with an avg. gain of +21.8% and avg. loss of -4.5%.

When @dryan310 talks, I listen.

R/R alone cannot tell you whether a trade has an edge. Expectancy can. A tight stop at a "key inflection point" may improve R/R while reducing win rate. E = P(win) × Avg Win − P(loss) × Avg Loss Until the probabilities and payoffs support it, the "edge" is still just a story.

Covering my $TQQQ short tomorrow morning at the market open based on my model's 4-day exit signal (selling my proxy $SQQQ position in my retirement account).

Only one trade in the last week. I don’t want to find a needle in a haystack.I want to throw darts when everything is flying high. #tradebetter

My long-term $TQQQ trend-following model triggered a FreshHighReversal Short Sell signal after the close, signaling a short entry at tomorrow's open and a 4-day time exit. Historically, this entry family boasts an 81.8% win rate, with an avg. gain of +5.4% and avg. loss of -2.8%.

First week of GREEN light. Breath is improving. I'm conservatively aggressive.

Market regime flipped to GREEN for the first time since June 9th, with group participation showing steady improvement.