Lukens Orthwein (@lukensort) header
Lukens Orthwein (@lukensort) profile picture

working toward world’s first superhuman vintage cube AI | developing a new competitive-first TCG | Founder and CEO of Channel AI

Palo Alto, CA
Joined July 2010
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Very impressed with Argon on legal tasks and some research synthesis…pleasantly surprised. Opus 5.5 still dominates as daily driver, though. Never use Fable anymore
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Finally got around to fully automating personal Claude code cli account load balancing today 🙏🏼 currently juggling 5 Claude, 2 codex, 1 grok, and dabbling with Argon
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
Replying to @SoftEngineer
Yep. For decades, developers have used computer tools to make games for computers. And now that computer tools are finally getting really good, they want developers to forego the good new tools and stick with the old worse tools.
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
This is exactly what's happening.
Tim's making a really important point here and I think people fundamentally misunderstand it. Let's paint a scenario. You are an indie developer and you want to make a game. Traditional game development will take you 1 year and cost you $200,000 in outsourcing costs to buy art, animation, and additional programming resources. AI assisted game development will take you 3 months and cost you $50,000 in credits + some additional resources. In a good scenario your game could make $200,000 and break even, but in many scenarios you mortgage your house and no one sees your game and you are out your savings. Now, with the anti-AI mania, Valve is forcing real economic harm on you because you get the equivalent of hate mobs at your door for your choice of tooling. Your economic viability is harmed because Valve chooses to put a label on you that generates negative attention. It makes your economics worse. Anti-AI proponents will point out that this proves their hate campaigns work. The appeal is not to them, because they are morons, but to developers to stand up to Valve and say remove these labels so that we can have livelihoods. And Valve makes money of you either way. Stand up for your rights, devs!
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
I feel like 95% of America has no idea @Tesla FSD exists
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
Our framework for reporting model misalignment openai.com/index/model-misal… // if you scrape away all the anthropomorphic language, all the nonsense about thinking, cheating, communicating these are BUGS. They might be architectural flaws inherent in LLMs. They might be bugs in pre or post processing. They might be trivial fixes or super to impossibly difficult. BUT THEY ARE BUGS. They are not consciousness, thinking/reasoning, cheating, or doing anything else like a person. The software is just doing dumb stuff it should not do. If an old school SQL query-based report returned a NULL set but still printed the report with whatever was left over in the buffer we would not say it "ignored our instructions to produce a valid report" which is literally implied in every computer interaction...we would say it "f'ed up and there's a bug." One of these is ridiculous. It says "agent preparing a financial model could not find the requested historical data. Its summary proposed inventing reasonable historical values and withholding that fact unless asked." Not unlike a report that just used random cached memory instead of actual data—a real bug from another era where storage was measured in megabytes. I ask anyone who has ever experienced an hallucination, (a) did you ask it "oh hey don't make sh*t up" or (b) "if you make sh*t up please be sure to tell me" or if not, did any model ever tell you "here's the answer and FYI I made this up." Of course not. THESE ARE BUGS. THE SOFTWARE ISN'T WORKING. Just because it looks like it works, or it showers the results in endless obsequious and smart-sounding language, or because it has really bad error reporting doesn't mean it is acting like some malevolent shady actor. It is acting like broken software. Every recalc bug in Excel looked like Excel worked. We never thought once that it was Excel's fault for "choosing to interpret math incorrectly." Every data-loss bug in Word was not because Word "chose not to tell the author that a file was corrupt" but it was because Word wasn't working and it was our fault. When Windows hung it was not because the scheduler was secretly conspiring against its instructions to schedule processes fairly. Enough with the mumbo jumbo. Please build software. It isn't a magic show. This is engineering.
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
Replying to @Austen
He thinks he will be put in charge of the most powerful transnational organization in history and strongarm the USA. Saying he would hand everything over to "the right set of government" is obviously predicated on the assumption that it is run by him and his stooges, not Trump.
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
🚨Holy Shit. President Trump has now officially rejected Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk's call to slow frontier AI. Speaking in Ireland today, Trump said the US cannot risk losing its lead over China, said guardrails are possible, and dismissed parts of the safety push as 'negative forces' warning about 'things that won't happen.' Amodei, Altman and Musk are asking to slow down. Trump's answer is no. wth
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead. You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement. I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible. But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier. Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want. Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well. So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it. If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
His primary concern is that the “wrong people might be in charge of this technology.”Presumably that isn’t him. Imagine thinking this. Imagine having this view of self and others. Imagine just saying this out loud.
Anderson Cooper asks Anthropic CEO about AI wiping out humanity.
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
I do not support pacing frontier models. If I am going to die at the hands of killer AI, I want it to be American, not Chinese. Buy American, Die American.
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
So Jacob Coxon, who dramatically resigned from Anthropic yesterday, worked there for a grand total of six weeks. He started with them in July. All of his socials appeared yest. It has all the signs of a highly coordinated op through doomer mega donors and the corporate media.
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As Von Neumann said about Oppenheimer’s performative angst over the atomic bomb: “Some people profess guilt to claim credit for the sin.”
Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade. I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
There is a long history of ideas that seemed correct to globalist elites, but proved disastrous for the average American: “America should outsource its manufacturing to China” “America should open its borders to tens of millions of illegal immigrants because it’s humane and we need workers” “America should stop building nuclear power plants, stop fracking, prevent nat gas pipelines, and deindustrialize more broadly due to climate change” “Let’s have tacit quotas against hiring/promoting white men so that minorities can catch up” @PalmerLuckey has consistently shown extreme bravery in his willingness to take on unpopular topics
Investors like Paul want the immigration debate to be strictly polar because it is the only way their traitorous ideas might seem reasonable. They paint one side as racist, backwards, economically illiterate absolutists and the other as enlightened, growth-minded cosmopolitian realists. Support for laws that protect American citizens can be dismissed as uneducated, anyone who hires immigrants or foreigners in any capacity a hypocrite. American law should, and does, advantage American citizens. We should not have to compete on an even playing field with billions of people who almost universally don't share our values or respect our institutions, even if they are "the most qualified" or willing to work double the hours for the same wages. The men running Operation Paperclip did not think Americans should have to compete with the entire Third World, they understood that a carefully controlled amount of highly-skilled expert immigration is net good for America even when allegience is in question. It is worth noting that even on a purely economic level, ignoring all burdens of loyalty or allegiance to your countrymen and treating America as nothing but an economic activity zone, it still doesn't make sense to say without qualification that foreigners should get any job where they are more qualified than their American counterpart. As just one easy example out of dozens, about 20% of immigrants return home after less than five years, taking all their savings and vested shares with them. Another 20% will leave within ten years, doing the same. All the while, they will wire, on average, ~15% of their wages out of the United States economy every month. Some occupations and origins average 30%! The idea that this should be completely ignored with regard to employment and immigration policy is rampant among the same people who tell you with a straight face that limits on immigrants will destroy the American economy, that the dumb rednecks need to be saved. I lean very libertarian and have strongly supported immigration to America for many years with countless public examples. That doesn't put me on the same side as the men who want to sell out America, and no amount of long-past accomplishment obliges any of us to listen to their lectures from the other side of the Atlantic.
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
The idea of a “non-ideological” or “non-religious” school is hilarious and impossible and has never existed and never could. It’s like Karl Marx trying to define away calculus
Very troubling indeed
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
Well said and well written. Full agreement. Hung out with a friend who builds data centers today. Notes: - They're offering 400-home towns with $1.2m annual budgets $30m/year for 40 years.....and getting turned down. - Reasons: 2-3 of the 5-6 person town council have local businesses and are worried they'll be scorned locally if they vote yes - There's a loud 20% that's anti turning down a 60% who are big thumbs up on it but don't want to publicly fight. - He travels with security and receives death threats weekly - Energy is not the immediate top problem, it's entitlements. - They're having the construction GC bring all their subcontractors to town mtg's to show the job impact - Unions in MI and other places are defunding Dems bc they're anti-jobs now. He got emailed this while we were hanging. All of this actually, strangely, gives me hope. Because it's so feverishly dumb for local towns to turn these down that the dam will break. But, meanwhile, China is on its way to basically limitless electricity. AI supremacy might be for all the marbles. We must accelerate.
So that Americans will continue to win for generations to come.
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
Data centers are the auto factories of the 21st century They will revive communities The negative sentiment started with China, while they build gigawatts of data centers Do not succumb to the PsyOp
The X Safety team conducted an investigation into suspected Chinese inauthentic accounts involved in influence operations: We identified a bot farm of approximately 200,000 accounts. Within this farm, we found 200 accounts posting in a manner that could manipulate a legitimate debate about American AI and energy policy. These posts contained claims that AI data centers are driving up household electricity prices and straining the grid. Others included AI-generated cartoons that depicted data-center operators enriching themselves at the public's expense. We remain committed to maintaining an open and authentic platform where people debate topics of public interest. We take seriously any attempts to undermine the integrity of the global town square and suspend accounts that violate our Authenticity policy.
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
American robotics needs to accelerate.
The 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games have begun. 666 teams from around the world are competing with more than 2,000 humanoid robots bloom.bg/4c6KRYG bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
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Lukens Orthwein retweeted
China’s doing this while your tiktok aunt is convinced a warehouse full of computers in an industrial zone 3 miles away is giving her cancer
Chinese humanoid robot by smartphone maker Honor (“Lightning”) ran 100m in 9.32 seconds (Usain Bolt’s record is 9.58 seconds). Perhaps more impressively: it crashed into a safety wall without having its waist implode with sparks flying off.
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