matt.smith (@mattpheus) header
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Co-Author: The Preparation: How to Become Competent, Confident, and Dangerous. Entrepreneur. Cattle rancher. Proud father. Co-host podcast with Doug Casey

Uruguay
Joined May 2010
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“The Most Important Book of 2026… Is The Preparation” — Craig Ballantyne @craigballantyne Be-Do-Have, personal codes, skill-stacking, and an alternative to college that actually builds capable men.
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Elliott, one of the biggest hedge funds in the world, made a little under 2% this year. The S&P 500 made about 13%. Elliott is fine with that. Its October letter says virtually every alarm bell for a major bear market is ringing. It's sitting on cash to buy from forced sellers when the market breaks. Forced sellers are people who borrowed too much. Don't be one of them. nitter.cf/mattpheus/status/21172…
OpenAI is going retail. That's the headline and it's also a bad sign. When deals like this are made available to retail, that means all the smart money has passed on the offer. OpenAI set out to raise $30 billion. The target is now $20 billion, and only $11 billion is in. The Wall Street Journal says big investors were "tepid." Investors from the UAE come next, then a "retail offering" for wealthy individuals.
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Belgium's government just offered to resign because its five parties couldn't agree on how to find €10 billion in savings. Some wanted new taxes on the rich, the others said no. France pays 4.97% to borrow for ten years, the highest in more than two decades, while its economy shrank. Britain just doubled its bank surcharge. Budgets are strained across Europe. Governments that can't agree on cuts will raise taxes or fall apart, like Belgium. nitter.cf/mattpheus/status/21165…
France's lower house just voted to tax data by the gigabyte. 5.5 euro cents for every gigabyte sent to French users, with internet providers counting it by sender for the tax office. Britain wants a "YouTube tax" because half a million people a year stop paying the BBC licence fee. Data will be taxed by the gigabyte. Just like driving may one day be taxed by the mile.
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Russia has ordered private data centers to reserve 10% of their capacity for the state. Twenty-four hours’ notice. The owners built the machines. The state decides when they’re needed. When compute becomes a weapon, you gotta imagine this will be commonplace.
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The airlines are back to checking your papers. Starting tonight, everyone boarding an international flight to the US, American citizens included, has to sign a statement that they haven't been in Congo in the past 21 days. No statement, no boarding. The airline keeps it for 42 days and hands it to the government on request. The CDC itself says the risk to Americans is low. nitter.cf/mattpheus/status/21169…
Do you remember how, during COVID, airlines were the enforcers of government-mandated travel restrictions? Will that trend continue as the government deputizes others for enforcement? Some examples: Local and state police: more than 29,000 are now deputized for immigration work, double the number from eight months ago. Bank employees: legal protection to hold customers' accounts. Power companies and their contractors: in France, the right to shoot down drones. Prison, ATF and DEA employees: the Justice Department plans to staff polling places with them.
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Bomb threats hit at least eight flights across Europe in 24 hours. European air disruptions are a growing trend. I keep an archive of the news I read in WHT(.)day. It built this timeline from 10 of my saves. On Nov 3, planes were searched after landing in Rome, Warsaw, Murcia and Sofia following emailed threats. A Ryanair jet from Dublin flew into Rome with an Italian Air Force escort. In Warsaw, the Foreign Ministry and Prime Minister's Office were reportedly evacuated. The day before, a mass email sent bomb threats to 271 Italian schools. No explosives have been found, and nobody has said who sent them. My archive had the earlier pieces. In August an explosive-laden drone turned up at Leipzig/Halle Airport, and on Sep 1 Germany accused Russia and said it would close a Russian consulate. On Sep 8 a Russian attack drone flew over Chisinau's airport while airliners circled. On Oct 22 Copenhagen Airport put every departing passenger through extra security checks. At the time Leipzig looked like one strange drone. Lined up by date, it's the first entry in three months of pressure on European air travel, and today was the biggest day yet.
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Build a your own personal private archive of tweets, news and other content. Connect X and WHT.day saves every bookmark on its own, or use the browser extension to archive any article or content. That's how this timeline came together: I saved the Leipzig drone story in August without knowing it would matter, and WHT.day lined it up with today's bomb threats from my own saves. If you cancel, your archive stays. It's a permanent personal archive. wht.day
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Two days ago I pointed out that companies had stopped blaming AI for job cuts. The cuts didn't stop. Disney is planning thousands of layoffs and told some managers to find 20% in savings. Squarespace just cut 19% of its staff, mostly engineers. Its CEO says the way they work "is changing faster than at any point in our history." Neither company said the word AI. nitter.cf/mattpheus/status/21169…
In May, US employers blamed AI for about 38,000 job cuts. By September it was under 4,000. Good news? Not really. The cuts didn't stop. They went quiet. Companies just stopped hiring. Planned hires in September were the weakest for any September since 2011. There's no layoff headline when the job never gets posted. That's the cut young people are taking.
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Last Wednesday Oracle promised investors it would limit new fundraising to $20 billion through 2030. On Monday it raised all $20 billion at once, half in new stock and half in new bonds. It already owes $236 billion and doesn't expect positive free cash flow until 2028. The machines need money. The buildout needs endless amounts of fresh capital. nitter.cf/mattpheus/status/21168…
Amazon spent $77 billion on buildings and equipment last quarter, more than double a year ago. Over the past year it spent $42 billion more cash than its business brought in, the most ever. The AI buildout now costs more than even Amazon earns, so the industry borrows. AI companies have sold a record $419 billion of bonds this year.
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Washington's plan to end the war in Ukraine keeps putting the US in the middle of Russia's money. In October it asked Europe to hand about $225 billion in frozen Russian assets to US custody. Now Witkoff and Kushner are pitching Russian gas sales to Europe again, through a US middleman. Ending this war is turning into a business deal for Washington.
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California votes today on a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of its billionaires. It applies to anyone who lived there on January 1, 2026. That's ten months before the vote. Move out now and you still owe. Polls say it will fail. Expect more of this anyway. nitter.cf/mattpheus/status/21166…
Five days ago I said the bill for leaving would come next. Italy just wrote one. Its draft budget taxes anyone with €800,000 or more in investments who moves abroad. 26% on their gains, even if they haven't sold anything. The government expects it to raise under €7 million a year. A tax that brings in almost nothing is there for one reason: to make leaving expensive. nitter.cf/mattpheus/status/21147…
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On Monday Trump was asked if he's considering strikes on Iran after the midterms. He said "no." Oil fell almost 8%. That same night the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island. US officials told the WSJ these "limited strikes" have been going on for weeks, kept low-profile on purpose. That "no" was for the oil price, the day before the election. nitter.cf/mattpheus/status/20360…
Half of what Trump says is designed to mislead the markets. The other half is to deceive you.
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Digital ID is spreading everywhere. Germany's goes live on phones January 2. The minister rolling it out just confirmed that the iPhones of German MPs and ministers were targeted by spyware that gets in without a click. Their advice: assume the phone is compromised and get a new one with a new number.
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Someone asked me what possible perk there is in having your appliances connected to the internet. The perk is for the company. In the first nine months of 2024, Vizio, a top US TV brand, lost $13 million on the TVs themselves. It made $303 million from ads and data on what people watch. That's why low-tech options are dwindling by the day. nitter.cf/bobwood019/status/2117…
Replying to @mattpheus
I am old so explain to me what possible perk/advantage is sold to people that their appliances should be internet connected?
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It's a trend: Hackers are switching off supermarket freezers in Europe. On Nov 2, stores in Sweden said hackers hit their cooling overnight. By the afternoon, posts were reporting the same in Belgium, Luxembourg, Estonia, Ireland, the Netherlands and Finland. My archive had the start of this. On Oct 29 the Pentagon said it suspected a cyberattack behind August freezer failures at about six base commissaries. At Fort Huachuca, one freezer went into defrost mode and heated its food. Late on Nov 1, Ukraine's air-raid app pushed fake nuclear warnings. WHT.day built this timeline from 8 of my saves. Each story looks like a glitch on its own. Lined up by date, it looks like a campaign against the machines we never think about.
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Most of us save things and never see them again. WHT.day fixes that: • Connect X and every bookmark saves itself • The browser extension saves any article in one click • Pick any day to see what happened, in order • Search any topic and your saves become a timeline (try this week’s freezer hacks) • Export the timeline as an image
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This morning I said imagine food or fuel tied to a digital ID. In India a pension already is. Every November, government retirees have to prove they're alive or the pension stops in December. This month India wants 15 million of them to do it by scanning their face into the national ID app. Expect more of this. nitter.cf/mattpheus/status/21172…
Digital ID is going global. India is showing what happens when one government database decides whether you exist. India has struck more than 130 million names off its voter rolls. Software flagged people for spelling differences, for having six or more siblings, even for having a twin. Those deleted lost food rations, benefits and passport renewals. Voting rights are relatively low stakes. Now imagine food or fuel tied to a digital ID. When that database gets it wrong, people go hungry and the appeal takes 21 years
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Freezers are old, simple technology but now they've become smart and dangerous. Overnight, someone got into store refrigeration in six European countries and set freezers as high as 50°C (122°F). Dozens of stores threw out their food. Last month it was hundreds of stores in France, and the Pentagon is investigating the same thing at grocery stores on US military bases. Opt out of smart appliances and devices. Not only are they spy machines, they can be hacked. nitter.cf/TGLetter/status/211722…
🚨 BREAKING: Hackers are hitting supermarket freezers in 5 countries at the same time. This is what Covid looked like in week 1. A few countries. Small numbers. Nobody called it a crisis. 1/ Sweden: stores say hackers hit their cooling overnight. One says fridges and freezers were set to 50°C, and the food spoiled. ICA Kvantum stores in Sjöbo and Tomelilla were hit, plus at least 6 Coop stores. Sjöbo stayed closed through the morning, threw out all affected goods and apologized. ICA says it is working to restore normal operations. In Sankt Olof a store manager said "everything is ruined." Sweden's National Cybersecurity Centre is working on several incidents. 2/ Estonia: the CEO of cooling firm Kitman Coldtech says several clients were targeted and a large chain's freezer was raised to +50°C. It was found and addressed in about 10 minutes, no major damage. 3/ Ireland: SuperValu pulled ALL fresh and frozen food from 13 stores. Its owner, Musgrave, confirmed a "cybersecurity incident" on a "specific model" of fridge. 4/ Luxembourg: Ahold Delhaize says an "IT incident" hit fridges and freezers at dozens of its supermarkets across Luxembourg and Belgium. 5/ Belgium: more than 40 Delhaize, at least 15 Carrefour and around 5 Spar stores were hit. Cold storage climbed to 15°C. Aisles were closed off and large amounts of stock were destroyed. A notice at one Proxy Delhaize said its systems had "fallen victim to hacking." Now zoom out. A freezer normally sits at -18°C. In Estonia, hackers reportedly got in through older controllers. In France, the controller maker said many devices were obsolete or ran outdated firmware. Raise the temperature overnight and the food rots. "You can't unspoil food," one professor said. It did not start today. 3 weeks ago hackers raised freezers at more than 350 sites in France to as high as 50°C. There were fires. Intermarché's CEO put the cost at "tens of millions of euros nationwide in a single day." Sources suspect Russian involvement there. No group has claimed it. That same day an analyst said Spain, Portugal, Poland, Germany and Belgium were affected too. Covid emptied the shelves. Nobody is calling this a crisis yet. But the Financial Times already puts the ruined food at millions of euros. Officials say the Pentagon is treating late-August freezer failures on US military bases as a suspected hack. At least 6 base stores were hit. Army investigators are working with French law enforcement. 5 countries in one day. 11 countries named since August. Share this. Everyone should know about it.
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Buy a stock at $100 and sell it at $200 twenty years later, after prices have doubled. You're no richer. The IRS taxes the $100 gain anyway. John Hunt runs the numbers in Doug Casey's Crisis Investing: "That is $23.80 owed on a profit that does not exist." After tax you end up with the real equivalent of $88.10, an 11.9% loss. Keep the cash in a mattress instead and inflation takes 50%. Even the Fed's 2% target adds up: "at compounded 2 percent, a dollar buys half as much in 35 years." His answer: "Where you can, opt out by owning things the printing press cannot make more of." He lists a home with a long-term fixed-rate mortgage, gold, gold producers that stay profitable at lower metal prices, and electricity.
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