Common Sense is my favourite sense. Agent of real news, fighter against fake news.
Joined March 2011
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Agent 86 (Maxwell Smart) retweeted
THE 15% BAND
Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.
The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.
One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024
For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.
The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%
Variation explained: 88%
What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.
The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.
Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.
What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.
A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.
The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.
Agent 86 (Maxwell Smart) retweeted
Tucker Carlson is a loser. Him and his laugh are annoying.
He’s attacking Scott Presler, one of the most productive members in the Republican Party, due to how he presents himself.
Agent 86 (Maxwell Smart) retweeted
They rigged too big!
Now they all got caught.
They walked right into President Trump’s trap.
⬇️WATCH THIS VIDEO ⬇️
Agent 86 (Maxwell Smart) retweeted
Wake-Up America 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Listen to him, he explains exactly why !!!!
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
2020 with even more efficiency
Everyone has been so accepting of these election results. Most people say “Yes there was cheating” but that’s not what lost the election for the Republicans. @NavyVet_Joe highlighting Michigan numbers that make no sense. Republicans appear to have gotten more votes than in 2022 but that’s neither here nor there, but it looks like the Democrats did another Biden 2020 on us and found an additional 20 million votes.
We are all just accepting these results so easily but we know they cheated in Alaska, the pre election sentiment in Michigan definitely does not reflect the result and I’ll never buy it that Texas voted so overwhelmingly for someone who think God is non binary.
This was a well executed and planned exercise and involved far more than just the Democrats. This was a global operation.
Everyone has been so accepting of these election results. Most people say “Yes there was cheating” but that’s not what lost the election for the Republicans. @NavyVet_Joe highlighting Michigan numbers that make no sense. Republicans appear to have gotten more votes than in 2022 but that’s neither here nor there, but it looks like the Democrats did another Biden 2020 on us and found an additional 20 million votes.
We are all just accepting these results so easily but we know they cheated in Alaska, the pre election sentiment in Michigan definitely does not reflect the result and I’ll never buy it that Texas voted so overwhelmingly for someone who think God is non binary.
This was a well executed and planned exercise and involved far more than just the Democrats. This was a global operation.
So joyful until they get mad and throw their handbags
Liberal men are now SINGING a song to get Democrats to go vote for more socialism today..
This is the SAME socialism that gave New York City free buses that never happened, city-run grocery stores that don't exist, and a rent freeze a judge is already questioning.
All of that, and the city still has a $6.4 BILLION hole to fill next year.. 🤣🤣
Agent 86 (Maxwell Smart) retweeted
No one — NO ONE — has done more to divide the American people than this POS.
Almost every problem we have in American politics can be traced to this scumbag’s time in office.
I am glad his museum looks like a garbage can, because that is how Hussein Obama will be remembered.
Democrats hate Americans
These people would all still be alive without Democrat policies, without Democrats inciting violence, without Democrats demonising conservatives, without Democrats giving sanctuary to illegal alien criminals and without Democrats opening the border.
Democrat politicians use their own supporters as fodder.
If you vote Democrat, you are either misinformed, uneducated, or brainwashed. They offer nothing.
Agent 86 (Maxwell Smart) retweeted
Holy shit
ON UCHICAGO CAMPUS: U.S. Senator from Michigan Elissa Slotkin hopes planned political prosecutions of republican leaders will scare young conservatives from getting involved in politics.
@ElissaSlotkin
