MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
I'm going to give a contrarian take on Neoclouds like $NBIS and say the theme looks compelling after the valuation crash.
Since there's a reason why Elon's $SPCX is heavily focused on this market full of "guppies" that would die:
He sees how attractive the economics are after selling compute to $GOOGL and Anthropic.
And this is reflected by his actions not words, from SpaceX's recent $40B financing for GPUs procurement.
$AMZN, $MSFT, and even $META also see how profitable the economics are and are accelerating their AI DC buildouts.
I'd argue if a Neocloud has:
- Close relationships with $NVDA + others for allocations
- Existing contracted capacity + permitting
- Well funded counterparties, such as Hyperscalers.
- Attractive economics, such as financing their procurement correctly (not the way $CRWV has with high debt interest unless they refinance).
Then I think they'll do just fine...
However, the bigger worry is more toward newer players starting financing or the permitting process, since barrier to entry has now become extremely high.
For financing, read through on $IREN earnings has shown public Neoclouds can adapt extremely well to tight markets:
As seen with their 90% prepayments for GPU capex on a 5Y deal.
Their older H100 GPUs recontracted at double their previous pricing and 12% higher contracted pricing also point against depreciation fears.
And in the case DC buildouts slow from permitting delays... it heavily favors some over others.
Rosenblatt's recent note for example stated they see little risk with $NBIS primary buildout that was in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina.
And there's probably less risk with developers in places like Australia.
Markets have also show this infinite compute arbitrage can't go on forever, hence the reluctance to further finance capex, via things like ATMs.
But ironically, tighter financing and hypothetical restrictive permitting would increase the competitive advantage of established neoclouds.
And create a larger moat against newer DC developers.
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
Gina Hinojosa has just clarified that she is NOT planning to ban data-centres. She just wants legislation around electricity, water and labour.
The data-centres will get built, the AI-genie isn't going back in the lamp.
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
Fraught market. My plan: I want to circle the wagons around the best and redeploy capital into non-tech, less risky stocks. Keep watching our Annual Meeting!
cnbc.com/investingclub/2026/…
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
$SPX yearly candles
Bollinger band has been expanding for the last 10 years, with acceleration of the 20 yearly moving average to the upside.
Last time this happened...
I have no idea what will happen though.
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
China chose Malaysia to get access to compute due to sanctions
US chose Malaysia because every state bans data centers
Malaysia can actually be one of the biggest winners in the AI race if AGI happens
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
I can’t shake the feeling that selling your high-beta tech stocks already down 40-70%, to buy low/no growth consumer names at 30-100x earnings…might not be so smart, either.
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
I am not going to stay as cautious as I am if we keep going lower, especially for non-tech. I will also be more sanguine if the giant Anthropic deal comes public and shows people how valuable compute can be.
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
Every current and potential $WULF shareholder needs to know this:
Management’s message from today's conf. call was that they won’t issue equity at today’s share price to fund growth. They named several alternatives but put no sizes, terms or timing on any of them.
Paul Prager, CEO (prepared remarks)
TeraWulf won’t sign a lease that forces it to issue equity at a valuation management thinks undervalues the company.
For Muskie specifically, the goal is a financing plan that reflects the value created at the site, preserves returns and minimizes dilution. Development would be phased, with capital raised alongside contracted demand.
Justified is already funded on the equity side. The remainder will come from project-level debt backed by Google’s credit support.
Rising financing costs are priced into new contracts, and TeraWulf won’t absorb financing risk that belongs elsewhere in the structure.
Patrick Fleury, CFO (prepared remarks)
Existing liquidity plus the remaining $280M of Abernathy proceeds covers three things without tapping equity markets:the rest of the Lake Mariner build
the remaining Justified equity
interim letters of credit at Muskie
The revolver was upsized to $400M with a $150M accordion, and the limit on how much of it could back letters of credit was removed. In December, the roughly $300M of cash now posted as Muskie letter-of-credit collateral is expected to be replaced by letters of credit drawn on the revolver, which frees that cash.
Once all the Lake Mariner leases commence, that project should generate significant cash and pay down debt quickly. Pulling equity out of stabilized assets and sending it back to the parent is a 2027 priority.
Q&A: Stephen Byrd (Morgan Stanley) on the equity overhang
Fleury listed the options:customer prepayments
customers buying TeraWulf equity at higher prices
more leverage, since the Lake Mariner project will be under-levered once it’s online
infrastructure funds buying project-level equity in stabilized assets at multiples well above where the public stocks trade
He said they would not sign one of the company’s biggest leases and then be forced to dilute shareholders “at these levels.”
Prager added that customers work with them to protect the spread. Fleury described open-book talks with tenants on cost of capital, aimed at keeping the lease yield on cost above TeraWulf’s cost of capital, backed by protections in the lease.
Q&A: Michael Funk (BofA) on selling stabilized assets
Fleury said the plan is to build and own long-term, but selling a minority stake to an infrastructure fund is possible. His example was Blackstone buying into FirstEnergy’s transmission business. He tied this to public markets continuing to undervalue data center developers, and said execution comes first.
Related points
The Google backstop at Justified requires no new equity or warrants for Google, unlike the Lake Mariner deal, and its cost is recoverable from Anthropic.
In response to a question about a competitor’s capital-light deal, management said it isn’t their primary focus. Their view is that full turnkey colocation creates more equity value per MW.
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
The Hyperscaler takeover of Neoclouds begins
*GOOGLE BUYS CRUSOE’S WYOMING DATA CENTER SITE
$BTDR Sovereign type shit
We are deeply honoured by the opportunity for @Bitdeer's founder, Chairman and CEO, @JihanWu, and delegation to meet with #Malaysia's Prime Minister, YAB Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim @anwaribrahim.
His vision is a powerful reminder: true progress is not simply about building world-class infrastructure, but nurturing local talent, creating opportunities, and empowering generations to come.
At @Bitdeer_AI, we believe the most meaningful investments are those that grow beyond themselves.
The future of AI is not measured by the power of machines alone, but by the possibilities we unlock for people.
This is only the beginning of a journey we hope to build, shape, and grow together with #Malaysia. 🇲🇾
#MalaysiaMADANI
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
$IREN
Gráfico 2S
Ha llegado a la zona objetivo más rápido de lo previsto, tras una estructura de distribución de libro.
Ahora, a esperar un suelo fiable entre los 15-20$ las próximas semanas.
#Iren
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
$IREN I'll just leave this Monthly Hidden Bullish Divergence continuation pattern here.
Make of it what you will.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
Every correction follows the same playbook btw
1. First u feel it in ur own trades. Stops hit frequently. Progress gets difficult.
2. Then while ur equity curve is down and stocks are down 50%+ everybody tweets “why is everyone being rediculous the indexes are only 3% off highs”
3. Finally you get the posts saying breadth is increasing the market is so healthy, except they forget to mention the stocks going up aren’t growth they are defensive stocks like energy and a bull market needs GROWTH stocks.
Boom…. correction hits… but how indexes were near highs and breadth was improving??
Curate who you follow
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
Markets love gridlock, hate endless surprises.... So a rally... but be careful with the Nebius/IRENs of the world.
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
bears been calling the ai top for 2 years straight
we're not in 2000. we're in 1998
nasdaq fell almost 30% in '98 and the top callers were sure. bubble had 2 more years of face melting..
now run that same cycle with today's leverage. margin. 0dte. lev etfs. private credit. same story, way bigger amplifier. every dip feels like a funeral now
then somebody explain this to me
lumentum just sold itself for $115B and took ZERO cash. all stock. 4.5 shares of marvell for every lite share
a company that thinks the cycle is peaking takes the bag and disappears. lumentum took stock and became a third of the new company. that's not an exit.
their lasers are sold out until 2029 btw. peaks don't come with a 3 year waitlist
marvell makes the chips. lumentum makes the lasers. hyperscalers want both built together now. $1B+ in savings building it as one package.
ai hardware ships on a yearly cycle. fastest connectivity wins the build. one company owning the chip AND the light is a speed cheat code
bears want 2000 so bad. they're getting 1998 with leverage
plan accordingly
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
Wall Street is paying 40x earnings for Costco and Walmart while hyperscalers growing revenues 4x faster trade at 20x. Apparently selling toilet paper is a safer bet than building the infrastructure for the biggest technological revolution in human history. Peak financial sophistication right there.
Ok, maybe theres something deeper going on. The market is paying a premium for capital preservation while discounting capital formation. Investors love AI, just not the inconvenient part where somebody actually has to spend money building the freaking thing. They want the productivity boom without the investment cycle. Genius.
And this is where the liquidity squeeze enters. Capital gets expensive, markets punish capex, fewer projects get financed, supply gets tighter, and suddenly the infrastructure everyone refused to fund becomes even more valuable. Beautiful little paradox. $IREN and $MRVL sit right in the middle of that mess, although financing and execution risks are very real.
Of course capex needs to earn a return. Nobody's disputing that. But if the AI demand curve is even remotely right, Wall Street may be discounting tomorrow's productive capacity precisely because today's financial plumbing cant stomach the bill.
Weve somehow built a market that rewards companies for not investing in the future, then acts shocked when the future runs out of capacity.
Dont worry tho, once the infrastructure is built, cash is flowing and the multiples have doubled, they'll happily call it a secular growth opportunity again. At 40x earnings, naturally.
The market is so negative on AI capex spend that hyperscalers with an average 21% revenue growth are trading at a 20.7x P/E multiple.
Meanwhile, you have companies like Costco and Walmart trading at 40x P/E while growing revenue at a fraction of the rate
If the capex proves to have any reasonable ROI, people are going to deeply regret being this bearish on some of the best companies in the world
MMM 🦠👽🫧 retweeted
This market feels like an argument I had with my ex when she asked me why I loved her, and I couldn't give her a satisfactory answer and just kept spiraling downwards.































