AI, Big Data and Elections @fladatacom, @freshtakefla and https://nitter.cf/t.co/MIeRWCqev6. Dev and Adjunct @UF. Hiker of Long Trails. Past @TB_Times, @datapath, @USMC
St Petersburg, FL
Joined June 2019
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In-person early voting is open in all 67 Florida counties through Saturday. On Sunday, just 16 stay open. Those counties are home to 67% of FL Democrats and 61% of NPA/minor-party voters, but only 47% of Republicans. Graphic: freshtake.vote/2026G/sunday.…
Think you've got what it takes predict Florida's final turnout? Play here. #FreshTakeFlorida freshtake.vote/2026G/game.ph…
Florida needs a conduit and procedures for the public to report security vulnerabilities without fear of prosecution.
70% of all Florida mail ballots are in. Democrats now have a higher VBM return rate vs Republicans for the first time this election.
Time to fire up the voter enthusiasm machine for the latest report: @FlaDems are turning out a higher percentage of their base vs @FloridaGOP in 65/67 counties.
As the Republican tide recedes, and Democrats turn out to undo some of the day's damage, the GOP fell short of the 30,000-ballot run-up we've come to expect from them. Republicans made it to +54,500 today. Democrats will likely whittle that figure down to +45,000 by mid-morning.
Gov. Ron DeSantis confirming what we've long suspected. Republicans are not satisfied with their turnout performance thus far.
During stop in Crystal River to announce $ for springs @GovRonDeSantis says "I don't think the turnout has been as strong as we would like to see ... I definitely think Republicans have some work to do." DeSantis has stepped up his campaigning for GOP ticket last few days
2018, Dems held a 32k lead prior to Election Day.
2022, Reps held a 311k lead prior to Election Day.
2026, Reps likely sub-100k lead.
Two million IVEP votes are in. Republicans managed to add 8,000 net ballots to their margin this morning.
The GOP advantage receded to 31.5k ballots this morning. Close to what was modeled. I estimate Reps will add ~30k ballots to their lead before evening Dems chip away another 10k or so. This would leave the GOP with a 50k-ballot advantage tomorrow morning. freshtake.vote/2026G
Brandon Meyer retweeted
The pollsters I talk with, who *know* Florida better than the @NYTimes, do not believe the Republican turnout advantage will be north of 12.
Some think +10 is more likely.
A few believe sub +10 is possible.
Democrats narrowed the GOP lead this evening. More progress is needed tomorrow to match my model. Final full-week turnout has been historically consistent. If the trend holds, Republicans should enter the weekend with a 100,000-ballot advantage. Dashboard: freshtake.vote/2026G
The past few days I've written about the tidal nature of turnout. GOP voters are hitting voting booths during the workday. Reps are 38k votes ahead of Dems. At about 5:30, we should see Dems start to turn out in greater numbers. I expect the GOP lead to drop to ~30k by 9:30 a.m.
Brandon Meyer retweeted
Republicans have yet to make meaningful progress reversing early Democratic advantages in South Florida and the I-4 corridor relying mainly on Southwest Florida to offset losses elsewhere in the state. Ex: The GOP currently holds a 33-ballot lead in a reliably red Polk County.
