Michael Rigoni retweeted
This is the correct response when looking at $SIVE >100m CW DFB extraordinary capacity disclosure.
To give some context, Trendforce July data cites global CW/EML capacity is roughly 608.4M/year (~50.7M monthly units annualized).
With $AVGO, $LITE, and Sumitomo making up ~335m/year combined.
By Q4 2027, it's likely a lot of these players will significantly expand capacity again, with broadcom citing 3x Y/Y growth. (also capacity not being 1:1 since many are allocated to EML or UHP CWs, etc).
But this capacity target would place Sivers in global Tier 1 laser supplier category.
With possibly low double digits global laser market share if you factor in their hybrid 2:1 manufacturing model.
This new disclosure is very exciting coming from a conservative company.
And sheds more light on why the $MRVL SVP cited Europe as a major geography when talking about laser supply chain sourcing.
Michael Rigoni retweeted
$SIVE announced today that it is expanding InP manufacturing in Glasgow.
The new capacity target is:
~100 million CW DFB laser annual production.
Using Sivers’ historical $50-$100 per 8-laser array pricing, the implied revenue capacity might be ~$625M-$1.25B/year (not guidance, just illustrative modeling)
I’m personally very surprised by the amount of capacity coming online from their new hybrid manufacturing model, targeted Q4 2027.
Especially during an industry shortage, mentioned by $AVGO earnings call today.
Michael Rigoni retweeted
Morgan Stanley-linked nominee accounts are now listed with 28.6M shares of $SIVE
Institutional investors recently paid the equivalent of approximately €5.11 per share in @SiversSemicond oversubscribed raise.
Today you can buy it for around €2.10
Insane.
Michael Rigoni retweeted
JUST IN: $SIVE invests $30 million USD to expand manufacturing capacity of its lasers to more than 100 million units
> Expansion program will begin in H2'26 and is expected to become operational in the Q4'27
> "This investment positions us along with our foundry partners, to meet that demand." - CEO
> Considering ASP could be $5, at full capacity, they could easily to $0.5B in revenue. They will surely keep expanding further if required and doing M&A for newer IPs.
> They are doing the right thing. Another step in the right direction. Money will follow.
$SIVE JUST DROPPED A MONSTER SIGNAL 👀
Sivers is investing $30M to scale European photonics manufacturing for AI datacenters targeting capacity of 100M+ CW DFB lasers annually.
Companies don’t build this kind of capacity without expecting serious customer ramps.
The AI infrastructure story is getting very real!!
WE ARE SOOO BACK 🚀🚀🚀
Michael Rigoni retweeted
$SIVE Hi everyone, just a quick personal note.
I’ve received quite a few messages from people checking in and asking if everything is okay and I really appreciate every single one of them 🙏
All good on my side. I’ve simply taken a short break from posting.
I’ll be back from tomorrow with regular updates, thoughts and posts again.
Thanks a lot for the continued support and for being such a great community❤️
$SIVE Hi everyone, just a quick personal note.
I’ve received quite a few messages from people checking in and asking if everything is okay and I really appreciate every single one of them 🙏
All good on my side. I’ve simply taken a short break from posting.
I’ll be back from tomorrow with regular updates, thoughts and posts again.
Thanks a lot for the continued support and for being such a great community❤️
Michael Rigoni retweeted
In 2025, Sivers delivered 25% full-year revenue growth, with Q4 revenue reaching SEK 80.7 million.
Then, in Q1 2026, Sivers reported another important number: its opportunity pipeline had grown 77% year-to-date to $799 million.
One looks at what we delivered. The other looks at the opportunity ahead.
With our Q2 report coming tomorrow on August 27, catch up on the latest Sivers investor reports here: sivers-semiconductors.com/in…
Michael Rigoni retweeted
Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days.
What I'm watching out for:
1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts.
-> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away)
-> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027)
So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO.
And in a merchant position:
-> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi)
-> CPO-grade lasers.
Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers.
2. Ongoing developments turning into volume
-> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027.
-> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026.
-> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there.
-> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume).
Aside from that:
3. NASDAQ listing
-> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update.
4. Financials
-> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically.
Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters.
-> revenue pipeline increase
-> any early volume contracts signed
Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone.
Bonus cookies:
-> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages.
-> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand"
$AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs)
An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected.
A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings.
Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting.
Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
Michael Rigoni retweeted
The connection between $INFQ and $SIVE may be one of the most overlooked opportunities in the quantum supply chain.
The University of Glasgow explicitly identifies @infleqtion, @SiversSemicond, and Alter Technology as partners in a project developing 780nm DFB lasers for quantum positioning and navigation systems.
Why does that matter?
Because 780nm is precisely the wavelength $INFQ identifies for rubidium-based cold-atom technology, while its Tiqker roadmap calls for integrated photonic lasers to transform today’s atomic clocks into compact, scalable systems.
$SIVE brings the semiconductor laser expertise, Alter handles advanced packaging, and $INFQ provides the real-world quantum applications.
Michael Rigoni retweeted
$SLS with the 80th Event, we’ll achieve a moonshot people can’t even imagine👀
I’m simply leaving this as a reference for anyone who wants to revisit it.
At least I gave them a heads up 📌
Michael Rigoni retweeted
A U.S. dual listing for $SIVE is starting to look increasingly likely because management’s actions have gone far beyond simply exploring an idea.
The company has upgraded its financial reporting toward PCAOB standards, restated historical figures, strengthened its financial controls and received shareholder authorization to issue shares specifically in connection with a potential Nasdaq listing.
$SIVE has also aligned its reporting schedule with U.S. market hours, citing its rapidly growing American investor base, while adding institutional capital and board-level experience suited to international expansion.
These are costly and time-consuming preparations that a small company would be unlikely to undertake without serious intent.
A U.S. listing would also make strategic sense: $SIVE operates directly within American AI, photonics, defense and satellite ecosystems, yet many U.S. institutions still cannot access the Stockholm-listed shares efficiently.
Although no final Nasdaq application or timetable has been announced, the groundwork increasingly suggests that the question may be becoming less about whether $SIVE lists in the U.S. and more about when and under what structure.
Michael Rigoni retweeted
Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains.
I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments.
Both have been kinda working on it for awhile.
- Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links.
- Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now).
Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance:
(121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025)
- This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw.
(123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial)
There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form.
For more upstream beneficaries:
-> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar.
The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement.
Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023)
-> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them.
TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation)
Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.
Michael Rigoni retweeted
The more closely I look at $SIVE’s Q1 update, the more bullish the setup becomes.
The weak headline revenue was caused by delayed U.S. defense-budget approvals rather than weakening demand, while management maintained its full-year growth plan and secured additional institutional capital to fund execution.
More importantly, the opportunity pipeline expanded 77% year-to-date to $799M, driven not only by new interest but also by higher production forecasts from existing customers, a much stronger signal than a pipeline built purely on early-stage leads.
$SIVE is also positioning its InP lasers across both today’s faster pluggable transceivers and tomorrow’s CPO/NPO architectures, the company is not dependent on a single optical transition.
When the CEO says he expects a massive demand-supply imbalance in InP lasers for at least the next three to five years, it suggests that qualified manufacturing capacity could become increasingly strategic, potentially supporting faster design-win conversion, long-term customer commitments and stronger pricing power.
With customer ramps expected across AI data centers, LiDAR, satellite communications, fixed wireless access and defense, 2027 could represent the point at which $SIVE shifts from a development-driven company into a scaled product-revenue story.
If even a reasonable portion of the $799M pipeline converts, the resulting acceleration in revenue, margins and market visibility could make 2027 genuinely transformational for $SIVE.
Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd.
The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high.
AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029)
Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years"
Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years.
Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments.
We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix).
Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales…
I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.
Michael Rigoni retweeted
Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd.
The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high.
AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029)
Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years"
Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years.
Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments.
We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix).
Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales…
I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.
