Resampling NFL event outcomes, similar to @mlb_simulator for baseball. Created by @DerekGrifka Inspired by @MoneyPuckdotcom
Joined August 2026
- Tweets172
- Following2
- Followers2.9K
- Likes241
Pinned Tweet
I built a simulator that re-prices luck in an NFL game. Every loose ball, field goal, and dropped pass is rerun 160K times.
Introducing the NFL Deserve-to-Win %
Built on data gathered via #nflverse
All code, models, and research can be found here:
github.com/dgrifka/nfl_simul…
🧵
Net lucky wins through wk 8. Measured using actual wins minus sum of each game's modeled win likelihood.
Luckiest: DEN +2.5, MIN +2.3, CHI +1.8
Unluckiest: NYJ -3.0, HOU -1.9, LAC -1.5
Data: nflverse #NFL
🏈 PHI @ WAS, Week 8
Final: PHI 10, WAS 27
Deserve-to-Win: PHI 12% / WAS 88%
Data: nflverse #NFL #FlyEaglesFly #RaiseHail
🚨 DEN are luck merchants! 🚨
🏈 KC @ DEN, Week 8
Final: KC 24, DEN 28
Deserve-to-Win: KC 69% / DEN 31%
Data: nflverse #NFL #ChiefsKingdom #BroncosCountry
🏈 LAC @ LA, Week 8
Final: LAC 9, LA 24
Deserve-to-Win: LAC 8% / LA 92%
Data: nflverse #NFL #BoltUp #RamsHouse
🏈 ATL @ TB, Week 8
Final: ATL 0, TB 16
Deserve-to-Win: ATL 12% / TB 88%
Data: nflverse #NFL #DirtyBirds #WeAreTheKrewe
🏈 CLE @ PIT, Week 8
Final: CLE 6, PIT 27
Deserve-to-Win: CLE 26% / PIT 74%
Data: nflverse #NFL #DawgPound #HereWeGo
🚨 LV are luck merchants! 🚨
🏈 LV @ NYJ, Week 8
Final: LV 38, NYJ 33
Deserve-to-Win: LV 26% / NYJ 74%
Data: nflverse #NFL #RaiderNation #JetUp
🏈 IND @ JAX, Week 8
Final: IND 7, JAX 42
Deserve-to-Win: IND 1% / JAX 99%
Data: nflverse #NFL #ForTheShoe #DUUUVAL
🏈 ARI @ DAL, Week 8
Final: ARI 33, DAL 30
Deserve-to-Win: ARI 81% / DAL 19%
Data: nflverse #NFL #BirdGang #DallasCowboys
🏈 BAL @ BUF, Week 8
Final: BAL 10, BUF 36
Deserve-to-Win: BAL 2% / BUF 98%
Data: nflverse #NFL #RavensFlock #BillsMafia
🏈 CAR @ GB, Week 8
Final: CAR 19, GB 27
Deserve-to-Win: CAR 12% / GB 88%
Data: nflverse #NFL #KeepPounding #GoPackGo
Net lucky wins through wk 7. Measured using actual wins minus sum of each game's modeled win likelihood.
Luckiest: MIN +2.7, DEN +1.8, CHI +1.7
Unluckiest: NYJ -2.3, HOU -1.9, LA -1.4
Data: nflverse #NFL
🏈 DAL @ PHI, Week 7
Final: DAL 38, PHI 21
Deserve-to-Win: DAL 89% / PHI 11%
Data: nflverse #NFL #DallasCowboys #FlyEaglesFly
🏈 KC @ SEA, Week 7
Final: KC 3, SEA 20
Deserve-to-Win: KC 25% / SEA 75%
Data: nflverse #NFL #ChiefsKingdom #Seahawks
🏈 LA @ LV, Week 7
Final: LA 35, LV 21
Deserve-to-Win: LA 87% / LV 13%
Data: nflverse #NFL #RamsHouse #RaiderNation
