Nompu Siziba

SOUTH AFRICA’S GRADUATION OUT OF AGOA DOESN’T MEAN WE WON'T HAVE ACCESS TO THE U.S. MARKET. WE WILL HAVE ACCESS, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TARIFFS. While we are now in a different political climate, I think it’s important to remember that aside from the issues the U.S. raised about South Africa’s eligibility to be part of AGOA, there have been some conversations for some time. For example, back in 2014, the focus, amongst other things, was on the reality that South Africa is an upper-middle-income country and should have graduated from AGOA to a full bilateral trade agreement with the U.S. Of course, we had our own complications, both because of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), which we can’t sign bilateral trade agreements without, and because we lobbied to keep benefiting from this unilateral approach (AGOA). Looking back, if we had found a way to graduate out of AGOA, as we were pressured to do then, and started conversations about a trade agreement, we would be in a different climate than what we are seeing now. Of course, this doesn’t mean countries with trade agreements are spared from drastic changes in U.S. trade policy; we see those changes affecting countries like Canada. Beyond South Africa graduating out of AGOA, I think there is also confusion about the implications. Others frame it as a complete ban from the U.S. market, which is not the case. Simply put, as South Africa transitions out of AGOA, the country would face an additional Most Favoured Nation tariff of around 3.4% on top of the existing tariffs the current U.S. Administration added to various countries. Currently, some South African products enter the U.S. market at 12.5% tariffs (Liberation Day tariff). Without AGOA, these tariffs would rise to 15.9%, slightly reducing the competitiveness of some South African products in the U.S. market. Still, one could argue that while this would be a challenging path, it would not necessarily be as catastrophic as we have faced in the past, when we faced much higher U.S. tariffs and still managed to compete. Consider South Africa’s agriculture: in 2025, the South African farming sector faced tariffs of around 30%. Still, agricultural exports to the U.S. were strong. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. in 2025 totalled US$504 million, down 3% from the previous year. During the higher “Liberation Day Tariffs”, some South African agricultural exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause in the second quarter of 2025 and exported more volume than usual. After this pause, exports cooled in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Notably, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. fell 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, to US$144 million. In the last quarter, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 39% to US$81 million. Still, the overall annual exports were encouraging. Even this year, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. were strong. For example, South Africa's agricultural exports to the U.S. increased by 56% from the first quarter of 2026 to the second quarter of 2026, to US$123 million. The decline in U.S. tariffs, from 30% to 12.5%, among other factors, has been the major contributor to the increase in South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. The U.S. remains an important market for South African agriculture, accounting for about 4% of our agricultural exports. Main exports include citrus, berries, grapes, raisins, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts. Again, South Africa's graduation from AGOA must be viewed in context and may not mean a catastrophe. This is not to understate the impact some industries may feel as the increase in tariffs slightly reduces their competitiveness. Still, we must manage the sentiment and narrative around this issue well. Above all, this yet again reminds us of the need to work hard to diversify South Africa’s export markets to growing regions such as Asia and the Middle East. But export diversification must be framed correctly; it is not a replacement for the U.S., EU, UK, Africa, and other markets. These remain key, and we must work to retain our access to them. --Wandile

There are a lot more cherries in South Africa. Here is why 🍒 🇿🇦

We have decided to put our first episode of the new show, “AgriView with Wandile”, here on X. In this week’s episode, we discuss: -- Misrepresentations of South Africa’s agricultural reality in the White House -- South Africa—US agricultural trade -- South Africa—US agricultural trade dynamics -- South Africa’s agriculture in the world -- Why was Deputy President Paul Mashatile in France, and how did it affect the farming sector? -- South Africa’s agriculture 31 years into democracy We hope you enjoy the show and appreciate your support. Spread the word!

One of the themes that dominated the White House Press session this evening was agriculture – the idea that the farming sector in South Africa is under siege and people are running away. But this is far from reality. The South African farming sector or farming community is not under siege. And yes, the country has devastating crime incidents, which should remain a significant worry for all. However, it is necessary to state that there is no land expropriation without compensation in the country, that the recent Expropriation Act has been massively misrepresented, and that it is based on the market principles of the willing buyer-willing seller. Some have portrayed the agricultural sector as a victim, but it has actually made enormous progress over time, contributing significantly to the country's overall economic growth. The sector has more than doubled in value and volume terms since 1994. This expansion was broadly shared across all major South African farming economy subsectors, including horticulture, field crops, and livestock. Catalysts for South Africa's agricultural growth Amongst other interventions, two major catalysts are behind the sector's progress. First, South Africa has adopted technological advancements in agriculture to drive productivity. This entails improved genetics, seed cultivars, vaccines, agrochemicals, and fertilisers, among other interventions. Better farming skills also help immensely. Second, the growing emphasis on agricultural trade has been a key driver of progress. South Africa has seen growth in its agricultural exports over time, reaching a record US$13,7 billion in 2024. South Africa is now ranked the world's 32nd largest agricultural exporter, the only African country in the top 40 in terms of value. The boom in exports was facilitated by the range of trading agreements the South African government secured over the past decades, the most important ones being with African countries, Europe, the Americas and some Asian countries. The African continent and Europe now account for approximately two-thirds of South Africa's agricultural exports, while Asia is also becoming an increasingly important market. Food security gains The increase in agricultural output over time is also a major contributor to South Africa's ranking of 59th out of 113 countries in the Global Food Security Index, making it the most food-secure country in Sub-Saharan Africa. Admittedly, boasting about this ranking when millions of South Africans go to bed hungry every day may ring hollow. We have a serious food insecurity challenge at the household level in South Africa. The lack of access to food that many South Africans face is primarily due to income poverty challenges, rather than a lack of availability resulting from low agricultural output, as is the case in other parts of Africa. In essence, we need to ensure that there is employment and that households have sufficient income to purchase food, or implement various interventions to support them, while being cognizant of the fiscal constraints the country faces. Robust employment Even with the adoption of technology that catalyses agricultural productivity improvements, employment in South Africa's agriculture has remained robust. For example, there were about 922,000 people employed in the industry in 1994, according to data from Stats SA, including seasonal and permanent labour. While the share of seasonal and regular labour changed over time, broad employment conditions remained vibrant. As of the last quarter of 2024, approximately 924,000 people were employed in primary agriculture. We have seen more encouraging employment conditions also within the value chain. Notably, the wages have also improved over time. Inclusivity in South Africa's agriculture The agricultural progress of the last 31 years is admirable and provides a solid foundation for further expansion, with a clear focus on enhancing inclusivity. As I argued in my book, "A Country of Two Agricultures", "Nearly three decades after the dawn of democracy, SA has remained a country of 'two agricultures'. On the one hand, we have a subsistence, primarily non-commercial and black farming segment; on the other, we have predominantly commercial and white farmers." The book adds that: "The democratic government's corrective policies and programmes to unify the sector and build an inclusive agricultural economy have suffered failures since 1994. The private sector has also not provided many successful partnership programmes to foster the inclusion of black farmers in commercial production at scale. It is no surprise that institutions such as the National Agricultural Marketing Council estimate that black farmers account for less than 10%, on average, of commercial agricultural production in SA." This lacklustre performance by black farmers in commercial agriculture cannot be blamed solely on historical legacies. The democratic government has a lot to account for in this failure. Notably, black farmers account for approximately 10% of South Africa's commercial agricultural output. Still, as I argued in the book; "What we can also not ignore is the anecdotal evidence pointing to a rise of black farmers in some corners of SA. We see this in field crops, horticulture and livestock in provinces such as Free State, Western Cape, Eastern Cape and other regions." Concluding remarks I have decided to revisit these points because, amid the current climate where some argue that the South African farming sector is under siege, it is easy to fall for such narratives and lose sight of the progress South Africa is making in this critical sector of the economy. As I highlighted in my book, "A Country of Two Agricultures", South Africa has great potential to increase the "agricultural pie" by bringing in more new entrant farmers, utilising, as a starting point, much of the government's underutilised agricultural land of roughly 2.5 million hectares. This land would need to be released with titles to appropriately selected individuals. This can be paired with blended finance support and leaning on the training and support of commodity associations. The expansion of agricultural activity would bring much-needed jobs in rural South Africa, while also improving the economic vitality and inclusivity. This could be an essential step for this decade to close the gap between the current two agricultural sectors in South Africa. Again, this post shows that this sector is in good shape, vital for the economy, not under siege.

This book is not only for farmers but all South Africans. If you haven't read it, get a copy from your nearest bookstore, any ebook platform, and online platforms.