@nonrandomalpha

Absolute total pure alpha (5x inverse levered). Red Scare politics.

 new york
Joined July 2019
  • Tweets7.1K
  • Following621
  • Followers375
326Media
ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Gavin Baker
@GavinSBakerSep 19
Open models continue taking share. Not just tokens, more $ now spent on open models than OpenAI. Positive for the AI infra trade. Open models taking share shift $ margin from the model layer to the infra and app layers.
Guillermo Rauch
@rauchgSep 19
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway: 🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6% While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z⁠.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2). (Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Michael McDonough
@M_McDonoughSep 18
🚚On the major Los Angeles-to-Dallas freight lane, a typical truckload now requires roughly $1,430 of diesel, based on the national average diesel price—up about $600, or 72%, from the day before the Feb. 28 strikes on Iran.
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The ECB just hiked rates for the second time this year, blaming a 3.3% inflation print. Look at what is actually driving it. Oil is back above $100. European natural gas just hit its highest since 2023. That is a war-driven supply shock, not inflation. No rate hike drills a barrel of oil or ends a war. Lagarde is tightening into a price shock, and the only thing it will break is European growth. The ECB is fighting the wrong enemy.
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Jim Bianco
@biancoresearchSep 15
4/5 Even the 2-year yield is up more than 1% since the Fed cut rates two years ago. Remember, the funds rate was 5.5% two years ago, and now even the 2-year yield is 1% higher than it was then!
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖
@MikeZaccardiApr 6
BofA: On a quarterly basis, stock correlations are at the lowest level since 2017…while performance dispersion is at the highest level since the GFC
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Liz Thomas
@LizThomasStratFeb 24
30-day stock dispersion is hovering at its highest level since right after Liberation Day. Lots of perceived winners and losers under the surface of this sideways market.
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Anna Wong
@AnnaEconomistSep 16
Warsh also mention that he is paying attention to the “second derivative” of the AI capex. That is also peaking this year.
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Compute Desk
@ComputeDeskJul 19
Fink's describing the world's next great market. We're building it. Compute futures almost live.
WOLF
@WOLF_FinancialJul 18
BLACKROCK CEO LARRY FINK SAYS A NEW ASSET CLASS IS COMING: FUTURES ON COMPUTE "The United States is short power. We're short compute, we're short chips." Fink sees shortages ahead across all three, plus memory. And he thinks the scarcity gets financialized: "I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." That is computing power described the way traders treat oil: a commodity scarce enough to hedge, price and trade. "We just don't have enough compute power right now."
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Compute Desk
@ComputeDeskSep 16
Compute Desk CTO @SenorScience presciently wrote that "B300s at B200 prices is a free option" at the end of April. The market hadn't priced in the fact that KimiK3 would come out, uniquely suited to work on B300s. We could have sold you an option to hedge that. "If MoE keeps scaling, toward multi-trillion-parameter models with longer context, the per-card headroom matters even more". Here's the original article: computedesk.substack.com/p/b…
Brett Harrison
@BrettHarrisonSep 16
B300 prices have broken away from the pack, one-year contract rates up >$1/hour in the last 30 days while other models are flat. The compute capacity block trades our customers have brought Architect this month are almost all B300/GB300 or VR. Few are asking for Hoppers at size.
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Brett Harrison
@BrettHarrisonSep 1
Nvidia’s GPU backstop deals are equivalent to writing put options at the residual floor and buying a smaller notional of call options at the same strike. If Nvidia could sell GPU rental price forwards or futures they could hedge the partial synthetic long.
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Quant Science
@quantscience_Sep 17
Skills needed to make money with algorithmic trading: Technical skills: • Statistics • Mathematics • Programming Critical thinking skills: • Strategy Ideas • Research • Data analysis Want help? 👉 Register here: learn.quantscience.io/join
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Claudia Sahm
@Claudia_SahmSep 17
"The Fed is fighting a real problem. Inflation is too high. These higher interest rates are costly medicine." My take on the rate hike this morning with @NPR's Morning Edition: what the Fed is trying to do, what it can't do, and who pays along the way. npr.org/2026/09/17/nx-s1-597…

Economist explains the Fed's decision to raise interest rates

NPR's A Martinez speaks with economist Claudia Sahm about why the Federal Reserve chose to raise interest rates after months of keeping them steady.

npr.org
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Neil Sethi NEW account
@neilsethinewSep 17
Unemployment Claims Drop Back Near 57-Year Lows Initial unemployment claims fall back under 200,000 for only the 8th time since 1969 and continuing claims declined to their second-lowest level since May 2023. pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
Neil Sethi NEW account
@neilsethinewSep 17
Initial unemployment claims fall back under 200k while continuing claims fall to the second lowest since May 2023.
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Neil Irwin
@Neil_IrwinSep 17
Warsh is applying Smart Brevity™ to Fed press conferences.
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Juliette Declercq
@JulietteJDISep 17
If you think yesterday's Fed was truly hawkish, good luck to you 🙄. Long end tells you the real story, and our clients have been trading that since June. Warsh doesn't just have to fight oil, he also has to fight a warming econ & a cornered dog in the WH who will promise anything to claw back the midterms. Get on board with us at JDIresearch.com
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Roberto Rios
@peruvian_bullSep 17
JP Morgan just released this chart- oil inventories are falling at the fastest pace in history
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
The Market Ear
@themarketearSep 17
BofA sees 33% EPS growth—and an S&P that goes nowhere. Own the revisions. Short the index. zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…

BofA’s Brutal S&P Math: 33% Earnings Growth, Almost No Upside

BofA sees 33% EPS growth—and an S&P that goes nowhere. Own the revisions. Short the index.

zerohedge.com
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Daily Chartbook
@dailychartbookSep 17
"The pace of tightening has mattered historically: fast rate hiking cycles were followed by negative returns over one to 12 months, while slow cycles were positive in all but one period." @DeanChristians @TPMRSignals
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
Neil Sethi NEW account
@neilsethinewSep 17
As mentioned previously, a Fed hiking cycle is not inconsistent with equity market gains, but as an interesting chart from UBS found in @C_Barraud's Thursday Brief (via @Marlin_Capital) confirms, it's the pace and also the starting point of inflation (interrelated concepts) that matter. Oddly, this cycle looks to be a battle between the best result (slow tightening) and the worst result (high inflation given core PCE is almost certain to print above 3% this month).
Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨
@C_BarraudSep 17
⚠ Thursday Brief ⚠ 🇺🇸 Warsh Just Turned Jackson Hole Into Action 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 EU Asks #China to Limit Car Exports 🇬🇧 Focus on #BOE ... christophe-barraud.com/morni…
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ɐɥdlɐɯopuɐɹuou retweeted
P Equity Research 📰
@pequityresearchSep 17
To see more, watch this video youtube.com/watch?v=PJrntzMA…
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