Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Tracking nuclear arsenals, writing Nuclear Notebook, SIPRI Yearbook. Opinions my own.
Washington, D.C.
Joined February 2009
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In our latest FAS Nuclear Notebook we take a look at India’s nuclear arsenal, status and new developments. Freely available in:
• PDF (@tandfonline) tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.…
• Web (@BulletinAtomic) thebulletin.org/premium/2026…
Questions, corrections, suggestions welcome.
Interesting nuclear snooping by @NukewatchUK reporting that 3 of Britain's 4 SSBNs were at sea at the same time on 14 October. nukewatch.org.uk/royal-navy-…
As they point out, not all 3 were on deterrent patrols at the same time, but conducting different types of operations.
It was overcast that day, but @planet satellite photos show one SSBN at Faslane on 9 Oct and no visible SSBNs on 16 and 17 Oct.
Russian navy test-launched Bulava SLBM from Sea of Okhotsk in the Pacific to Chizha range in northwest Russia. tass.com/defense/2209253/amp
See our Nuclear Notebook on Russian nuclear forces: tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.…
Timing coincided with US Global Thunder nuke exercise.
USSTRATCOM has indicated that the strategic nuclear exercise Global Thunder currently underway is linked to support for NATO and involves the United Kingdom and Norway. #GT27 #GlobalThunder27 nitter.cf/US_STRATCOM/status/211…
Integrating with our @RoyalAirForce 🇬🇧 and @Luftforsvaret 🇳🇴 #AlliesAndPartners during #GT27 strengthens our forces and demonstrates our shared commitment to @US_EUCOM regional security.
The UK navy says it's carrier-based F-35Cs escorted a USAF B-52 that was operating with Norwegian F-35As, apparently as part of US strategic nuclear exercise Global Thunder. nitter.cf/COMUKCSG/status/211474…
Making history together🇬🇧🤝🇺🇸🤝🇳🇴
For the first time an American B-52 was escorted by British F-35s, whilst working alongside Norwegian F-35s. A milestone for the UK, USA and Norway, and another example of what can be achieved when allies work as one.
#StrongerTogether
The US mid-term elections are upon us, so the Trumpies are doing what they can to spread false rumors about fraud and create doubt about the integrity of the election system. WP takes a closer look at their despicable efforts: washingtonpost.com/politics/…
Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) retweeted
NEW: Saudi Arabia is doubling its ability to produce ballistic missiles at al-Duwadimi.
New facilities will allow the Kingdom to cast more and larger missiles to deliver larger payloads at longer ranges.
Read more about it from @DuitsmanMS and I at @FPRI & @Reuters. Links below
Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) retweeted
#FactFriday ➡️ Global military expenditure increased to $2887 billion in 2025, the 11th year of consecutive rises.
Accurate, dependable information matters more than ever. Invest in the facts. Support SIPRI: donate.sipri.org
French defense minister says UK (conventional) fighters participated in French nukes air exercise for the first time. This would be similar to when UK (and others) provides conventional air support to NATO nuclear exercise Steadfast Noon that ended earlier this week.
Pour la première fois, les Typhoon de la @RoyalAirForce ont rejoint les Rafale de @Armee_de_lair pour participer à un exercice organisé par les forces aériennes stratégiques de la composante nucléaire aéroportée. Un jalon décisif de la coopération de défense 🇫🇷🇬🇧, démontrant la coordination et l'engagement des deux puissances nucléaires européennes en faveur de la sécurité de l'Europe et d’une dissuasion crédible.
The annual US strategic nuclear exercise Global Thunder is underway. STRATCOM says part of the objective is to “enhance nuclear readiness.” stratcom.mil/Media/News/News… Global Thunder begins as NATO’s annual tac nuke ex Steadfast Noon ends in Europe. #GT27
The first new C-130J-30 has been delivered to the US Navy, the first phase in the replacement of the current E-6B as the secure nuclear communications link between the National Command Authority and the fleet of strategic ballistic missile submarines. dvidshub.net/news/577080/nav…
Despite the impressive capabilities of the MOAB conventional bomb, a comparison that it “is like a small nuke” is a stretch. MOAB is normally estimated to have an explosive yield equivalent to 11 tons of TNT. The smallest U.S. nuke is about 300 tons of TNT.
According to @CNN, Trump is considering using MOABs against Pickaxe nuclear site. I would not be dismissive of the idea as CSIS expert was on Thursday’s Erin Burnett. The rationale of using a MOAB is that the blast is so violent that it can overcome typical blast traps of tunnel entrances. It is like a small nuke; it is difficult to engineer entrances to withstand that level of a blast.
The goal may be the confirmed closure of known access routes at Pickaxe, creating a monitored condition. Reopening is an observable change requiring action. That can be valuable even when the condition of the underground chambers would remain unknown. Moreover, MOABs would destroy surface support structures and utilities.
Monitored closure, with lack of information about activities inside, has been the situation for months at Esfahan Mtn complex and the underground Natanz enrichment plant. So MOABs could put Pickaxe in the same condition as the other two nuclear sites.
Note: Fordow was destroyed by earth penetrators, GBU-57s, reaching the underground halls via crashing through ventilation systems. While we have discovered probable ventilation shafts at Pickaxe, it is uncertain how they reach the main underground halls. But a MOAB on a ventilation shaft may be worth trying, if there is one to spare.
The huge blast would be on the surface. Pickaxe is an isolated site, so neighboring communities would be unlikely to be affected by the blast.
Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) retweeted
According to @CNN, Trump is considering using MOABs against Pickaxe nuclear site. I would not be dismissive of the idea as CSIS expert was on Thursday’s Erin Burnett. The rationale of using a MOAB is that the blast is so violent that it can overcome typical blast traps of tunnel entrances. It is like a small nuke; it is difficult to engineer entrances to withstand that level of a blast.
The goal may be the confirmed closure of known access routes at Pickaxe, creating a monitored condition. Reopening is an observable change requiring action. That can be valuable even when the condition of the underground chambers would remain unknown. Moreover, MOABs would destroy surface support structures and utilities.
Monitored closure, with lack of information about activities inside, has been the situation for months at Esfahan Mtn complex and the underground Natanz enrichment plant. So MOABs could put Pickaxe in the same condition as the other two nuclear sites.
Note: Fordow was destroyed by earth penetrators, GBU-57s, reaching the underground halls via crashing through ventilation systems. While we have discovered probable ventilation shafts at Pickaxe, it is uncertain how they reach the main underground halls. But a MOAB on a ventilation shaft may be worth trying, if there is one to spare.
The huge blast would be on the surface. Pickaxe is an isolated site, so neighboring communities would be unlikely to be affected by the blast.
Thank you to David Kearn for raising these points relevant to the debate about nuclear options. tandfonline.com/eprint/H6RJT…
The problem is not lack of options but those advocating for more by creating doubts about those that already exist.
NNSA did explosive experiment to improved US ability to “detect and characterize nuclear explosive events” globally. energy.gov/nnsa/articles/nns…
With better ability to detect and characterize, and no technical need for US nuke test, US can continue to promote test ban.
Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) retweeted
"Is the Dead Hand back? Well, it never went away" - My take on the story about Kosvinsky Kamen/The Dead Hand/Perimeter. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/… Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p…
The self-dumbing by this administration is frightening and self-defeating. After cutting ties to universities, the Department of the Air Force apparently has decided to axe @CASI_Research and other research centers. Who needs insight at a time of growing strategic competition? 🙄
Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) retweeted
@googleearth has recently begun blurring out military sites in South Korea.
Read more in the debut blog by our team's newest @ScovillePF Fellow, Sachi Barnaby, on @scientistsorg:
fas.org/publication/excessiv…
Hui Zhang is documenting expansion of China’s uranium enrichment capacity. 👇
"Rapid expansion of China's enrichment capacity at Emeishan" by Hui Zhang. Website: fissilematerials.org/blog/20… Substack: fissilematerials.substack.co…
