老小鱼

300 美元家用小矿机又挖出比特币区块，独得约 25 万美元 10 月 27 日，比特币第 973,413 号区块由一台算力仅约 6.5 TH/s 的小型设备在 CKPool 上以 solo 模式挖出，独得 3.14 枚 BTC，约合 25 万美元。 矿机厂商 Altair Tech 推测，这台设备很可能是嘉楠售价约 300 美元的 Avalon Nano 3S。据"算力之心"统计，过去 12 个月全球 solo 散户矿工共挖出 24 个区块，比前一年增加约四成。 不过，按当前全网约 1000 EH/s 的算力估算，单台 Nano 3S 一年挖到区块的概率只有约三千分之一，接入矿池日常挖矿的收益也抵不上电费。 目前这类设备更多被当作取暖器，或者当成"买彩票"玩。

In March, Google warned that quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography much sooner than expected. Today, Google unveiled a new security service to help banks protect their crypto assets. First warn everyone about the threat. Then sell them security. What a business model.

Saying there’s no reason to own Bitcoin because AI can hack a crypto app is like saying there’s no reason to speak English because AI can hack a messaging app.

The most important revolution of our lifetime is separating money from the state.

NAT是涨，还是跌： 大佬们内心的纠斗 最近一直有朋友问我，NAT那么好，为什么价格还没涨？持有大量BTC的机构大佬们为什么不出来站台？ 这确实是一个好问题！值得掰扯掰扯！ 数据已经说明，比特币正站在一个微妙的“卡”位节点上。 四年一减半的机制逻辑上要求币价持续上涨，以填补矿工收入的严重不足，但现实是，比特币已在九万刀以下徘徊，且大概率向更低位滑落。这不是简单的周期波动，而是一个结构性困境：网络安全需要巨大的资金填充，而有顾虑的机构忌惮比特币网络安全，只会心是口非地唤单，不可能真正入金。于是，一个悖论浮现了——比特币必须涨，但比特币涨不动了。 正是在这个裂缝中，NAT的价值逻辑浮出水面。按照资料中的换算关系，1亿枚NAT相当于1枚比特币，单区块3.86亿个NAT，若一年内NAT价值达不到1万美金（对应市值100亿），两年内达不到5万美金（对应市值500亿），比特币就不可能有牛市。这个推论看似激进，实则揭示了一个残酷的资金逻辑：比特币要突破“卡”位，需要新的资金叙事，而NAT的第二奖励方案恰恰是那个成熟的解决方案——它不否定比特币，而是承接比特币网络安全所需的资金缺口，让矿工收入得以补充，让网络算力得以维系。NAT就是比特币，比特币就是NAT，唯一不同的是NAT晚于比特币十五年才被发现和开采。现在的NAT，就是2010年、2011年时的比特币。 那么，NAT是涨还是跌？答案取决于一个变量：大佬们内心的纠斗何时结束。 大佬们的纠斗是真实的，也是可以理解的。他们手中握有大量BTC，四年减半的周期信仰是他们资产叙事的基石。如果承认NAT的第二奖励方案是解决比特币网络安全问题的成熟路径，那就等于承认一件事：从此以后，BTC价格随着周期倍增的想法破灭了，可能不再有传统意义上的牛市。这对持有大量BTC的机构而言，是一种叙事上的“降维”——他们不希望比特币的估值逻辑被重构，因为重构意味着他们过去赖以获利的周期模型失效。于是他们纠结：既忌惮比特币网络安全问题可能引发的系统性风险，又不愿主动为NAT的价值立威，因为那等于亲手拆掉自己熟悉的旧舞台。 但这种纠斗是短视的。没有“迈克尔·塞勒”的时代，只有时代的“迈克尔·塞勒”。机构大佬们再纠结，也阻挡不了人们捍卫比特币网络安全的决心。网络安全不是抽象概念，它需要真金白银的算力支撑，需要矿工有足够的激励留在链上。如果BTC价格无法在周期逻辑下继续倍增，而矿工收入又严重不足，死亡螺旋就不是危言耸听。NAT的第二奖励方案之所以“成熟”，正是因为它绕开了“BTC必须涨”的单一叙事，用另一条激励通道为网络安全输血。这不是对比特币的背叛，而是对比特币的保全。 因此，NAT的方向不是跌，而是涨——但它的涨不取决于技术，而取决于共识的转向速度。只要发几条推文或者一个公告，NAT就会瞬间起飞，成为仅次于比特币的主流币。这句话不是在鼓吹投机，而是在陈述一个事实：NAT的价值锚定在比特币网络安全的真实需求上，一旦机构资本意识到“不推NAT，比特币的网络安全性就缺乏资金填充”，NAT的上涨就是逻辑必然。100亿市值对应1万美金，500亿市值对应5万美金，这些数字不是凭空画饼，而是按“1亿NAT=1BTC”的换算关系倒推出来的网络安全资金缺口。 所以，真正的论点落点不在NAT会不会涨，而在于大佬们应该尽早主动为NAT价值立威。这既是维护比特币网络安全，又是捍卫自己的资产。拖延的代价是什么？是比特币在九万刀以下继续徘徊，是矿工收入缺口扩大，是网络安全顾虑让机构入金意愿进一步萎缩，最终形成“越不敢推NAT，比特币越涨不动；比特币越涨不动，越不敢推NAT”的死循环。而主动立威的收益是什么？是NAT迅速获得主流币地位，第二奖励方案落地，矿工激励补足，网络安全加固，比特币的底层价值反而被夯实。大佬们手中的BTC不会因为NAT的崛起而贬值，反而会因为网络安全的巩固而获得更可持续的估值基础。 纠斗的本质，是旧周期信仰与新安全现实之间的拉扯。但历史从不等待纠结者。2010年的比特币不需要大佬点头才成为比特币，今天的NAT也不需要。大佬们可以选择继续心是口非地唤单，也可以选择主动为NAT价值立威——前者是把资产押在一个涨不动的叙事上，后者是用一个成熟的解决方案为自己的资产买一份网络安全保险。 NAT是涨是跌，答案不在K线里，在大佬们愿不愿意承认：捍卫比特币网络安全，就是捍卫他们自己。

AI creates abundance. Bitcoin enforces scarcity. One expands humanity’s ability to create value. The other lets us preserve and transfer it across time and space. Digital Intelligence and Digital Capital are complementary, Jason. The world needs both.

Michael is not wrong here, that's my thesis from 3 years ago.

Fiat money is a government permission slip to slowly steal from you, and every central bank on earth runs one. Here is how the mechanism works. Governments spend beyond what taxation can cover. Rather than default honestly, they instruct their central bank to create new currency units, purchase government debt, and inject the proceeds into the financial system. As of late 2026, the Federal Reserve held $7 trillion in assets, most of it acquired through this process. The new dollars dilute every dollar you already hold. Your purchasing power falls. Nobody ever announces the heist. Mises called this the "crack-up boom," the terminal phase where currency creation accelerates until the public loses confidence entirely. Germany 1923. Zimbabwe 2008. Venezuela throughout the 2010s. Each collapse followed the same script: politicians facing fiscal pressure chose the printing press over honest accounting. They always do. This also causes another problem: Prices carry information, specifically the relative scarcity of goods and the preferences of millions of people acting voluntarily. When a central bank manipulates the money supply, it corrupts that signal. Entrepreneurs invest based on distorted interest rates, build factories the real economy cannot support, hire workers for projects that only pencil out at artificially cheap credit. Then the correction comes, and you watch your portfolio, your job, your neighborhood absorb the damage that Washington's balance sheet avoided. Sound money, whether gold or a hard-capped digital currency, removes this lever from political hands. Governments hate this removal because it strips them of the power to inflate.

Bitcoin is exactly like gold, only it’s even more scarce… And instantly verifiable… Oh and easily transferable, and neatly and highly divisible And it’s immutable… and irrevocable. That’s important And you can carry any amount of it just by remembering 12 words So just like gold, but better in literally every way when it comes to being money

Two solo Bitcoin miners defy the odds and hit jackpot blocks on consecutive days. 🔸One ran a 16 TH/s setup: $500–$1.5k 🔸One used FutureBit gear: $900-$2k 🔸Both kept the full 3.125 BTC + fees Congrats to those lucky miners!

It's coming...

Bitcoin is the only major asset class primarily held by individuals. Bonds, stocks, and gold have existed for centuries. So naturally they are more institutionalized. As bitcoin matures, we expect ownership to shift towards institutions. Its ownership distribution will look more similar to gold. This is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It is simply the inevitable consequence of global adoption.

Fun fact of the day: On January 3rd, 2009, the Bitcoin network had about 49.71 kilohashes per second of computing power. Today, it has roughly 978 exahashes per second. That's a 19,670,000,000,000,000x increase. In other words, the Bitcoin network has grown 19.67 quadrillion times in less than 18 years. Now, ask yourself: If intelligence is measured by the ability to grow, adapt, and strengthen oneself... how intelligent does that make Bitcoin?