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Stock Analyst | Data Enthusiast | Financial Statement Analysis | AI/Tech Growth Stocks | Enjoys morning runs—my friends call me Alex
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$NVDA just put the largest buyback increase on record. That is the headline. It is not the trade.
Board added $150 billion. Remaining authorization is now $235 billion, slated through FY2028. Apple’s $110 billion add in 2024 is the old mark. Authorization is a ceiling. They still have to generate the cash and hit the bid.
Jensen’s line is the real tell: cash generation is large enough to fund the platform and buy paper. Q2 they already retired about $20 billion. The till does not hold $235 billion today. The next two fiscal years have to print it.
#NVDA #buyback #ShareRepurchase #AI
The dollar has lost about 23% of its purchasing power since 2020.
If the account is only up 30% in that window, real wealth did not move. Inflation has printed above the Fed’s 2% target for five straight years. That is not a spike. That is the regime.
The bond market already marked it. Ten-year yields spent this month around 5%. Warsh hiked last week and the dots still have another move. Cash is a melting bid. Duration only works if the coupon clears inflation.
Own claims on cash flow. Not slogans.
#inflation #Fed
Goldman just made the spend number bigger and the payback number louder.
$AMZN $META $GOOGL $MSFT $ORCL AI capex to $1.2 trillion in 2027, up more than 50%. Street was closer to $1.1 trillion. To break even they need about $300 billion a year of AI revenue. Cloud is only running ~$70 billion above the old trend. More than a third of next year’s build may be debt.
That is the rotation from “who is spending” to “who gets paid.” Backlog is huge. Cash conversion is not. $ORCL already lives in that gap. The other four still have better balance sheets. The 10-year does not care.
#AI #AMZN #MSFT #ORCL
$GNRC trading around $208 after the move.
Amazon data-center backup power agreement valued at up to $8B, with $2.4B of deliveries already scheduled for 2027-28. Amazon also took warrants.
This is one of the cleaner physical-layer contracts tied directly to the AI buildout. Power equipment is starting to get re-rated as critical infrastructure rather than a traditional industrial.
At these levels the market is clearly pricing the near-term delivery visibility. The open question is how much of the longer-dated, multi-year volume beyond 2028 is already in the number versus still being treated as optionality.
#GNRC #AMZN #DataCenters #Power
Major futures green, Nasdaq leading.
Crude extending losses for a third session — that is taking pressure off the inflation narrative after this week’s rate hike.
Semis and AI hardware continuing to attract the flow: $INTC, $MU, $AMD, $SNDK all holding gains pre-market.
$GOOGL also firm on the Waymo Singapore update.
Market is still willing to pay for the physical layer of the AI buildout.
#Semis #GOOGL #PreMarket #Oil
Futures are bid because the 10-year came off.
Last night it tagged a yield not seen since 2007 and went out above 5%. This morning it is back around 4.98%. The 2-year and the long bond eased with it. Rate-sensitive growth caught the first bounce.
That is a relief in the discount rate, not a new Fed. Warsh still hiked,
the dots still have another move, October is still live. The tape is trading 5.00 versus 4.98. Do not confuse a basis point of air with a regime change.
#bonds #FOMC
The hike was priced. The presser was not.
Last two hours took the air out of stocks, metals, and crypto — call it about $2.2 trillion if you stack the sleeves. S&P −1.46%. Nasdaq −1.41%. Gold −3%. Silver −4%. Bitcoin −2%.
Do not add the S&P and the Nasdaq and call it math. Same names live in both. The point is the complex went together after Warsh stopped sounding like one-and-done.
25bp at 2:00 was consensus. “Will deliver price stability” plus another hike in the dots is what hit duration into the close.
#FOMC #Warsh #USStocks #Stock
They hiked. That part was in the price.
25bp to 3.75%–4.00%. Unanimous. First increase since 2023. July was a hold. Warsh said three things changed: the labor market held up, inflation stayed too high all summer, and the geopolitical book got worse. He did not need to name the war.
The statement is short. “Timelier return” to 2%. “The Committee will deliver price stability.” Most dots still have another hike this year.
The 25bp is not the trade. The path is. One-and-done died in the room. Whether they stop at one more is what duration has to live with from here.
#FOMC #Fed
Miners caught a bid into the Fed. That is the whole note.
$CIFR led, up double digits last I looked. $HUT followed. $WULF $APLD $IREN $RIOT all green around 4%.
Bitcoin is still sitting near $75,500 after Clarity failed cloture. These names are not trading hash price. They are trading power, HPC conversion, and the most levered duration in the complex. Monday and Tuesday took that duration off. This morning put some back on before 2:30.
A squeeze into FOMC is not a new cycle. It is positioning.
#CIFR #Bitcoin #FOMC
$SWKS left the $52 March low behind. It tagged $92.30 last week, dropped 10%, then reclaimed $90. Merger tape plus a 36% short float — not a quiet reset.
The tape is treating this as a scale RF vehicle, not just an Apple content-loss name.
Apple is still ~57% of sales after a 20–25% hit on an iPhone 17 RF socket. Q3 did $935M. Broad Markets — auto and data center — is carrying the growth. Q4 is $1.01–$1.06B, mobile up high-teens, margin 44–45%.
$QRVO is the real trade: $32.50 cash + 0.960 $SWKS. Combined target ~$5.5B mobile, $2.5B+ non-mobile, $500M synergies. U.S. cleared. China is the last gate. About $2B of deal debt coming.
TTM sales still ~$4.0B. Street sits near $68 vs $90 on the screen. Price is ahead of the model.
• Support: $79–80, then $74–76
• Breakout: ?
• Buy zone:?
• Stop: Below $74
lose path and Apple mix still have to print. Confirmation tape, not a chase.
Deal checklist stays off here.
@skyworksinc @QorvoInc #USStocks #Stock #StockMarket
FOMC at 2:00 PM ET. FedWatch has a 25 bp hike around 92–93%. That would take the funds range to 3.75%–4.00% — first increase since July 2023
The print is not the trade. The hike is mostly in the tape
What still isn’t: the dots, the statement, and Kevin Warsh at the presser. Markets need to know if this is a one-off risk-management step or the first leg of a new tightening cycle
A 25 bp move that the curve already owns does very little. A hawkish median dot does
Watching the reaction, not the headline
@federalreserve @NewYorkFed @CMEGroup
The 10Y has now sat above its 2-year low for 73 straight months. Longest stretch like that since 1967.
1967 was mid-cycle in a secular yield uptrend that did not roll over until the early 1980s. If September prints a 74th month, this becomes the third-longest run on record.
The level matters more than the streak. Since the September 2022 breakout, the 10Y has averaged 4.17%. That is double the 2.06% average of the prior decade.
The 2010s discount rate is gone. Duration is being priced off a different floor.
@USTreasury @federalreserve @NewYorkFed
$META is starting to put a paid layer across the whole stack. Meta One is live globally on Instagram, WhatsApp and Facebook
$7.99 on the consumer side. $499 at the top for businesses that want more AI usage and the premium toolset
Ads still pay the bills. This is Meta testing whether the graph can carry a subscription mix, not a new business showing up in the print tomorrow
Worth watching how the market treats the mix, not the headline
@Meta @instagram @WhatsApp @AIatMeta
The bearish case against $SOUN used to be that "voice AI could not achieve scale."
However, revenue is set to nearly double to $169 million in 2025, with growth rates of 52% and 45% in the first and second quarters, respectively, and a non-GAAP gross margin reaching an impressive 58%.
Today, enterprise-grade agentic AI has become the key focus, and SoundHound continues to secure major clients.
At a price point of $6.26, this level of high growth represents exceptional value. $SOUN
In the AI chip sector, $AMD stands out as the most undervalued investment opportunity.
Shipments of the MI300X are ramping up rapidly, and revenue for the Instinct series has reached a critical growth inflection point; furthermore, CEO Lisa Su has demonstrated exceptional execution capabilities.
While Nvidia (NVDA) dominates the headlines, the true "second-derivative" investment opportunity—representing explosive potential driven by accelerating growth—actually lies with $AMD.
I have prepared an in-depth analysis covering the competitive landscape, key price levels, and what to watch for in the upcoming data center earnings report.
Feel free to contact me via WhatsApp to receive the detailed analysis for free.
Not investment advice | For informational purposes only
#AMD #AIChips #Semiconductors
$OKLO
launches a new $1 billion at-the-market offering program.