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Polymarket put its exchange in cancel-only mode for about an hour on Thursday after traders reported drained accounts, then reopened it. The company said a third-party provider on its website had been compromised and promised to reimburse affected users. Reuters and security researchers named the provider as DebugBear, which sells website performance monitoring. Polymarket has not given a loss figure. Analysts tracking the attacker's wallets put it between $2.2M and $2.7M. Polymarket users have now lost funds through a third-party compromise twice in four months. Researchers have not tied the two attacks to the same group or supplier. In late June, attackers used a compromised dependency to take about $3M, and Polymarket promised refunds then as well.

Alaska has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, when Mark Begich beat Ted Stevens by 3,953 votes. With the election on Tuesday, Polymarket has Democrat Mary Peltola at around 71¢ to unseat Republican Dan Sullivan. The polls under that price are close. Data for Progress, in the field October 8 to 16, had Peltola ahead 51-49 in the final ranked-choice round, with a 4-point margin of error. Alaska Survey Research had the same 51-49 in early October. In the Data for Progress first round, Peltola led 47-44, and a third candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. took 4%. That is twice her final-round lead, and his voters' next choices decide where it lands. Alaska has been here before. In October 2020, NYT/Siena had Sullivan up 8 over Al Gross. Gravis, PPP and Change Research had him up 3, and Harstad had Gross up 1. Sullivan won by 12.7, so even the friendliest of those polls for Sullivan came in 4.7 points short. There is a fair case that 2020 is the wrong guide. That race had no ranked-choice round, and Peltola won the state's at-large House seat in 2022 under the new system. The price is not a margin, though. A 71¢ contract says a 2-point lead holds about 7 times in 10. The late polls that had Sullivan up 3 in 2020 missed by almost 10 points, and a miss half that size would flip this race. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate. Alaska is one the market already puts in their column, on a lead half the size of the poll's margin of error.

Iran's state broadcaster said on Thursday that three oil tankers exploded and caught fire after striking naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, citing the Revolutionary Guard. Iran said the ships were trying to use an unauthorized route. The AP could not confirm the claim, and Iran named none of the ships. Separately, UKMTO, the UK maritime agency, said a ship's master reported seeing another vessel on fire 9 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman. The crew's status is unknown, and UKMTO did not say whether it is one of the three. Polymarket traders hold three live contracts on this story, and their rules treat today's reports in different ways. On the Hormuz traffic contract for October 31, Yes needs IMF PortWatch to show a 7-day average of at least 60 transit calls on any date through Saturday. Lloyd's List Intelligence, quoted by the AP, says tankers have kept moving oil through the strait under US military protection. Yes needs that traffic to climb within two days, so mine reports can only push toward No. The US x Iran ceasefire contract through November 8 pays No only if a US air or missile strike hits Iran's land territory or internal waters. Its rules leave out Iran's territorial sea and airspace, so an incident out in the strait does not settle it. For the Hormuz agreement contract to pay Yes by December 31, Washington and Tehran both have to announce that they accept the same deal, and neither government has announced one.

This morning at 9:45 in Ottawa, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate a quarter point to 2.50%, its first increase since July 2023, and Tiff Macklem said a further increase could be needed. At 2pm in Washington the Federal Reserve announces its own decision, and Polymarket had a hold at 94.85¢ at 13:41 UTC, with a quarter-point hike near 5¢. Ottawa's move is about oil. Macklem said the hike is needed to reduce the risk that elevated energy prices spill over into other prices, and the Bank lifted its 2027 inflation forecast to 3.1%, from 2.0% in July. Canada's September inflation was driven almost entirely by energy, while core measures stayed near 2%. This time the Fed moved first, with a unanimous quarter point on 16 September, its first increase since 2023 and the first under Kevin Warsh, which took the range to 3.75-4.00%. The Bank of Canada had held at 2.25% since October 2025. Before Macklem's comments on 17 October, Canadian markets gave an October hike about one chance in three. Polymarket's contract on it was at about 78¢ at 13:41 UTC, four minutes before the announcement. US September CPI, out 14 October, ran at 3.7% headline and 2.6% core, both above forecasts. So for the Fed, today is mostly about December. There is no dot plot at this meeting; new projections come with the 9 December decision, and CME futures put a December hike at 73% as of Monday. With today's hold almost fully priced, the 2pm statement and Warsh's press conference at 2:30 are what can still move that number.

In February 2009, Tzipi Livni's Kadima won the most seats in the Knesset, 28 to Likud's 27, and Benjamin Netanyahu became prime minister. Twelve years later Likud won 30 seats, and the prime minister was Naftali Bennett, whose party had won seven. Israel votes again today, and Polymarket prices that same gap. At 13:00 UTC, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar was at 75¢ to win the most seats, and Eisenkot himself at 65¢ to be the next prime minister. The ten points between those two prices are, roughly, the market's discount for building a coalition. On the other side the gap is a point and a half: Likud at 23¢ for most seats, Netanyahu at 21.5¢ on the same prime minister contract. The market gives him almost no path that runs without Likud finishing first, the route he took in 2009. The final polls show where that discount comes from. Channels 11, 12 and 13 had Yashar near 22 seats and Likud near 20, and the Haaretz average of the three gave Eisenkot's bloc 54 against 50 for Netanyahu's. A government needs 61 of 120. The Arab parties, polled at about 15 seats together, are in neither total. In 2021 Ra'am became the first independent Arab party to join a coalition, and the Knesset confirmed that government 60 to 59. The two questions also end on different days. Official results are published on 4 November. The prime minister contract pays only when someone is sworn in, and caretaker time does not count. After the March 2021 vote, that took 82 days. Polls close at 10pm in Israel, 20:00 UTC, and the main channels publish exit polls straight after. President Isaac Herzog consults party leaders on a nominee only after the final count, and that nominee then has up to 42 days to form a government.

Polls closed in Serbia at 8pm on Sunday. Within two hours there were two sets of early numbers, and they pointed in opposite directions. The first was the official count. RIK, the electoral commission, published results from its first 203 polling stations out of 8,392. Aleksandar Vučić's United Serbia list led the Student List by nearly 19 points. The second was a projection. CeSID and Ipsos count a sample of stations built to represent the whole country. They had the Student List on 52% and United Serbia on 39.3%. On Polymarket, the contract on which list wins the most seats spent more than an hour after the polls closed with Vučić's side as the favourite, priced between 54 and 67 cents. At 9:16pm Belgrade time the Student List side was at 37 cents. By 9:30 it was at 60, and it did not come back down. The sample was right. With 96% of stations processed, RIK has the Student List on 52.54% and United Serbia on 39.29%. The projection was off by about half a point. The first partial count was more than 30 points off the margin. The case for the count is real. Every ballot in it is a real ballot, and RIK, not CeSID, is the resolution source named on the Polymarket contract. A sample is not magic either. In April 2016, CeSID's first release put Vučić's party on 56%, and its final figure was 48.9%. That release rested on about 17% of the sample, and smaller rural stations, which leaned his way, had reported first. So the question on an election night is not count or sample. It is how much of the sample is in. On Sunday the CeSID and Ipsos figures already rested on about half of theirs. RIK's 203 stations were 2.4% of the total, and simply the first records to arrive. Vučić conceded on Sunday night, before the count was finished. He did not cite the count. He cited the stratified sample.

The first Ballon d'Or went to Stanley Matthews in 1956. Seventy years later the ceremony comes to England for the first time, and tonight at the London Palladium the favourite on Polymarket is a striker born in the same city. Harry Kane has the volume. Between 3 August 2025 and 19 July 2026 he scored 73 goals: 61 for Bayern Munich, who won the Bundesliga and the German Cup, and 12 for England, who finished third at the World Cup. No Englishman has won since Michael Owen in 2001, and Bayern has waited longer still: Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, 1981. Kylian Mbappé has the scoring titles. He finished top scorer in La Liga, the Champions League and the World Cup, and his teams won nothing. On Sunday he scored twice in Real Madrid's 2-1 win in Barcelona. No ballot counts that brace: the judging window shut on 19 July, and the 100 jurors had filed their ballots by 28 September. Lamine Yamal holds the medal the other two lack. Spain beat Argentina in the World Cup final on 19 July, and Barcelona won La Liga. A World Cup summer has not always decided it: in 2010, 2014 and 2018 the winner had not lifted the trophy that July. Mbappé will be in the room, French media report. Florentino Pérez will not travel, according to The Athletic, and Barcelona arrived with a delegation of 23 led by Joan Laporta. Polymarket has a contract on the winner, settled by France Football's announcement, and every vote behind it was cast at least four weeks ago. The envelope opens at 8pm London time.

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Real Madrid said on Sunday that Thibaut Courtois will miss tonight's Clásico at Camp Nou with flu. Andriy Lunin should start in goal, and the club has called up a second Ukrainian keeper, Illia Voloshyn, for the bench. Lunin has faced Barcelona four times. He won the first three: 3-1 in October 2022, 4-1 in the Spanish Super Cup final in January 2024 and 3-2 in April 2024. The fourth came on October 26, 2024, also standing in for an injured Courtois, and Barcelona won 4-0 at the Bernabéu. Four games is a small sample, and he has never faced them at Barcelona's ground: three were in Madrid and the cup final was in Saudi Arabia. Madrid are also without Vinícius Júnior, who is serving a four-match ban for his red card against Villarreal. Barcelona are missing Dani Olmo, Eric García and Jules Koundé, but they have won all nine league games so far and sit six points clear of Madrid. It is José Mourinho's first Clásico since he returned to the club in June. The Polymarket contract on a Madrid win counts only the 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so a draw resolves it No. Kickoff is 9 p.m. in Spain. Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé are both expected to play tonight, and both are on the shortlist for Monday's Ballon d'Or in London. The jury's ballots closed on September 28, four weeks before tonight's kickoff.

Milwaukee took Game 1 of the World Series 3-2 on Friday night. Nick Martinez, the starter Tampa Bay picked over its ace, went five innings and allowed two runs, both in the first. Jacob Misiorowski, who led every MLB starter in ERA, also went five and allowed one. Bookmakers had made the opener roughly two in three for Milwaukee once the margin came out, from a -198 line at CBS Sports. The Rays lost it by one run and still had the tying run on base when Trevor Megill struck out Jonny DeLuca to end it. Tonight's line shows what the rotation shuffle bought. DraftKings has Milwaukee at -127 for Game 2 and CBS lists -120, about 53% after the margin. Same ballpark, same two teams, and the price has moved roughly ten points toward Tampa Bay. The easy reading is Drew Rasmussen, 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and an extra day of rest. That covers half of it. Milwaukee answers with Logan Henderson, whose 2.47 ERA is lower than Rasmussen's, so the ten points mostly measure how much the market paid for Misiorowski in the opener. The case against the plan is on the scoreboard. Tampa Bay trails 1-0, and CBS Sports counts that teams winning Game 1 of a best-of-seven series have gone on to take it 64.5% of the time. The case for it is in the box score. Martinez struck out five, walked nobody and kept Milwaukee scoreless after the first inning, in a game where his team started as a clear underdog. Anyone grading the rotation call needs both prices rather than one result, since Tampa Bay accepted about 36% in the opener to get about 47% tonight. If the Rays win at 8 p.m. ET, the series is level, with Freddy Peralta still lined up for the games at Tropicana Field.

Game 1 of the World Series starts tonight in Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay is not sending its ace. Drew Rasmussen could have pitched on four days' rest. The Rays gave him an extra day and handed the ball to Nick Martinez instead. That puts Martinez, 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA, against Jacob Misiorowski, who led every MLB starter with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts. Rasmussen takes Game 2 on Saturday, and the Rays held Freddy Peralta back for the games at Tropicana Field. Bookmakers price the mismatch. CBS Sports lists Milwaukee as a -198 favorite tonight, roughly two in three once the margin comes out. DraftKings has the Brewers at -160 for the whole series, which ESPN converts to 59.1%. Those two prices answer different questions. A series price averages every starter both teams will use. Tonight's price covers one matchup, and Tampa Bay picked this one knowing it starts as the weaker side on paper. There is a fair case against the shuffle. Milwaukee won 103 games, the most in the majors, and it has had extra rest since sweeping the Dodgers in four. Handing a rested 103-win team the opener at home gives it the easiest possible start. The Rays think they can absorb that. Their rotation owns a 1.98 playoff ERA, the best of the 12 postseason teams, and their pitchers held opponents to three runs or fewer in eight of nine October games. A split of the first two games would suit them, with Rasmussen and Peralta lined up for the games that follow. So when a team reshuffles its rotation, set the game price next to the series price. Here they sit four or five points apart, and that space is the opener Tampa Bay chose not to fight for. Whoever wins, the trophy goes somewhere new: this is the first World Series since 1980 in which neither club has won a title before.

On Thursday, Reason senior editor Robby Soave published a Senate prediction in two parts: Democrats win the chamber on November 3, and Republicans end up running it anyway. His route back for the GOP runs through one senator who is not on this year's ballot, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, with independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders counted in the 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, because a 50-50 chamber stays Republican on Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote. Soave's own map ends at 51-49 for Democrats. At that margin one member changing sides makes it 50-50, and Soave writes that a Fetterman switch seems "somewhat likely" to him. Fetterman has said otherwise. In a Washington Post column on May 7 he wrote that he has "no plans to leave" the party, and added that he would make a terrible Republican. Pennsylvania's Republican chair, Greg Rothman, has said backing his re-election would not be off the table if he crossed over. His own seat is next on the ballot in 2028. Only one senator has moved control of the chamber this way. Jim Jeffords of Vermont announced in May 2001 that he was leaving the Republican Party to sit as an independent with the Democrats, and that June they took over a 50-50 Senate, seven months after the election that produced it. Traders in Polymarket's Senate-control contract are betting on the party in control "following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections." On a 51-49 night, that contract could settle on a Democratic majority that is gone by the time the chamber organizes in January.