pro bettor/predictor. think fast and click faster @bookiebeats1.
Chicago, IL
Joined June 2023
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pads retweeted
I can't believe how many chronic complainers there are in PMs.
You can have people on the most favourable, advantageous terms over others and they will still find a reason to feel hard done by.
Guys, we are participating in the hardest markets in the world. Grow up and get better. It is a skill issue. You don't grind as much as me, you wouldn't know.
You can also ‘conclude’ from this ‘white paper’ that PM users:
•are more financially literate than casino, iGamers and non-gamblers (4.05 v 3.84, 3.75, 3.72)
• spend less /month than any other segment
• statistically indistinguishable from sportbettors on confidence/spend/time
Wrote about a new study commissioned by @AmericanGaming .
-Gamblers demonstrate higher financial literacy than non-gamblers.
-Sports bettors demonstrate more mathematical ability than other types of gamblers and non-gamblers
-Prediction market users have more confidence in their math ability than they actually demonstrate
closingline.substack.com/p/e…
Appreciate the guys over @Novig and MAG for having me on the live pod, and @spanky for hosting imo the best year of bet bash yet.
VERY excited to trade against your live $50k NFL sides this year.
New Ep of Inside Prediction Markets live from Bet Bash
@BigBuckHunterrr + @Flupnolide ft @padadiso
00:00 Pads joins us at BetBash 2026
00:27 Pads’ story & @BookieBeats1
08:18 The most controversial trades
11:22 PMs vs. sportsbooks
24:00 Market making, liquidity & finding an edge
33:00 BetBash audience Q&A
51:00 NFL betting & what to expect this season
I am in favor of protecting our country’s children
Great catch by @jesswelman. A federal bill deceptively titled "Facial Recognition to Protect Children Act" amends the Special Rule to make it easier for the CFTC to approve "gaming" contracts. It's co-sponsored by 5 Dems from sports betting states such as NY, NJ, MI & FL (+ CA).
predictable anti-PM sentiment in response to this (albeit not from ursa), which is easily duplicated with equities/crypto/etc?
Give me anything with volatility and I will find a way to make it into raw gambling.
I hope I'm not going to get my @Kalshi personal account blocked but I've build a Slot on top of their APIs.
I can tweak with it to make it more or less volatiles, this very is very low volatility one and with some restrictions but sky is the limit.
These are all real transactions with a real account.
Kalshi, Please give me access to the Perps API to make the game better.
I think we are very close to see these types of experience deployed at scale everywhere. There is also a roulette version inside...
human judgement:
• Dingers: YES
• NBA Points: ALL OF THEM
• 1:100 shot for a never-before-seen historic comeback?: WHY NOT
another banger pod
New Episode out where @Sports__Proj and I interview top Kalshi Trader @alter_clay
Clay has made over $1.2M in 2026 on Kalshi alone w/ 100% manual trading. Great listen - check out the episode links below ⬇️
When you, a savvy Parisian vineyard owner, correctly hedge your crop against the weather but some asshole comes in with a blowtorch causing you to both lose your hedge and grapes.
Should’ve priced-in the potential sabotage, François
holy fuck, a hair dryer at a Paris airport broke Polymarket weather markets & made someone $34,000 richer
- polymarket was settling Paris temperature bets on a single Météo France sensor sitting near the Charles de Gaulle runway perimeter - basically unguarded
- the guy bought the long-shot outcome (like "22°C" when everyone expected 18°C) for pennies, since nobody thought it'd hit
- then he walked up to the probe and briefly heated the air around it with a portable heat source, spiking the reading just long enough to register as the daily max
- temperature snapped back to normal in minutes, the market resolved in his favor, and he cashed out - twice, on April 6 and April 15, before Météo France caught on and filed charges
hyperstitions.
